AL Playoff Preview

With about six weeks left in the baseball season, the playoff races have been heating up. Today, we'll take a look at the American League playoff picture. The playoff spots are hardly set in stone as of late August, and much could still happen in the remaining weeks. I would say the Royals have a spot wrapped up, but that is about the only certainty. I'll list the teams in the hunt, going in order of who I think has the best chance to represent the AL in the World Series. With apologies to the Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Mariners, Red Sox, and Athletics; I only included teams with records .500 or better. Starting with the least likely, and finishing with the most likely.

Minnesota Twins

Overview

The Twins were one of the first half surprises this season. Going into the All Star break, the Twins were at 49-40, 4 1/2 games out of first place. They also held on to the first wild card spot. Rookie manager Paul Molitor and veteran outfielder Torii Hunter added a spark to a team that was coming off four straight last place finishes. Brian Dozier made his first All Star team, and Miguel Sano made his major league debut. Sano has hit 10 home runs in 43 games. The pitching held up better than past years, but lacks star power.

Verdict

Since the All Star break, the Twins have went 13-21. They are now on the fringes of the wild card race, with the division likely out of reach. Joe Mauer has finally been healthy this season at first base, but is no longer the elite hitter he was when he won three batting titles, two on base titles, and a MVP from 2006-12. For a team that was a doormat, being a game over .500 at this point of the season is progress. Minnesota is in a five way race for the last wild card spot, and the odds aren't good for them. I don't see the Twins as one of the five best teams in the AL right now, but they are getting better.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overview

After an offseason that saw both GM Andrew Freidman and manager Joe Maddon leave (as well as many key players), the team has stayed respectable in 2015. New manager Kevin Cash has kept this young team in contention, and in the wild card hunt. The strength of this team has been it's pitching, and it ranks third in the AL in ERA. Chris Archer has stepped up to fill the ace role that was vacated by last year's trade of David Price. Tampa Bay has been able to overcome a season ending injury to Alex Cobb, and a minor league demotion of Matt Moore.

Verdict

The Rays were picked for last place by many prognosticators before this season, but have exceeded expectations. They have been able to do this despite ranking last in the league in runs scored. Evan Longoria hasn't had a lot of help this year, with the exception of second baseman Logan Forsythe. The Rays pitching will keep them in games, but it looks like a long shot for a playoff run.

Texas Rangers

Overview

While the injury problems aren't as bad as last year, the Rangers have had to deal with numerous injuries to key players. The good news is that Prince Fielder is healthy and productive again. Adrian Beltre has also returned from a mid-season injury. The Rangers made several trades during the season, picking up former Rangers Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Texas also made a big splash acquiring former Phillies ace Cole Hamels. Hamels solidifies a rotation that was ravaged by injury, including season ending surgery to Yu Darvish. 

Verdict

Texas currently has a half game lead over the Angels for the last wild card spot. They are in tough competition with the Angels, Orioles, and a few other teams for that spot. It is very possible that they can win that spot, but how far can this team go? This isn't the powerhouse offense that the Rangers had during their playoff stretch of 2010-12. The bullpen is also shaky, with the Neftali Feliz experiment not working out. Hamels improves the rotation, but the back end of it still has question marks. I don't see this team going far in October.

Los Angeles Angels

Overview

The Angels remain in the hunt, despite some off-field distractions. Starting with the Josh Hamilton saga. Hamilton admitted to a relapse in the offseason, and then was given away to division rival Texas. Then GM Jerry DiPoto and manager Mike Scioscia feuded over what analytical information the coaching staff was sharing with the players. This feud led to DiPoto's ouster as GM. On the positive, former MVP's Mike Trout and Albert Pujols both have had All Star seasons. The Halos have also had strong seasons from Garret Richards and Hector Santiago. Rookie lefty Andrew Heaney has impressed since his callup mid-season.

Verdict

This team isn't as strong as last year's 98 win version. Last year, the Angels led the AL in runs scored. This year, they rank 11th. Jered Weaver has had a down year, and CJ Wilson has been shut down for the rest of the season due to an elbow injury. The pitching is still good, and could get this team in the playoff hunt. I would expect Trout and Pujols to carry the offense the rest of the way. The Angels still have a good shot at making the playoffs, but this is a flawed team with a few holes on it.

Baltimore Orioles

Overview

There was a lot of concern on how the Orioles were going to replace Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, and Andrew Miller this year. The return of healthy Manny Machado and a productive Chris Davis have helped in that regard.  Machado has had a MVP type season. Adam Jones is having another strong season, and Matt Wieters has returned from injury. At the deadline the Orioles picked up Gerardo Parra, who has hit five home runs since joining the team. The rotation is solid, but not spectacular. Even with the loss of Miller, the bullpen has been outstanding. Both closer Zach Britton and setup man Darren O'Day made the All Star team this year.

Verdict

Buck Showalter seems to find a way to keep his teams in contention. Despite the losses, injuries, and revolving door at the corner outfield spots, this team is in the hunt. Not quite as strong record wise as last year, but last year's team was without Machado, Davis, and Wieters for the stretch run and postseason. Of all the team's competing for the last wild card spot, I think Baltimore is the best.

Houston Astros

Overview

Almost no one predicted that the Astros would be in playoff contention this year, let alone leading their division in late August. Houston has a solid offense, and leads the AL in home runs, stolen bases, and strikeouts. Second baseman Jose Altuve has had another All Star campaign, after winning the batting title in 2014. He now has a double play partner that matches his talents in Carlos Correa. Since being called up on June 7th, Correa has batted .275, slugged .518, hit 15 home runs, stole 10 bases, and plays elite defense.George Springer was off to a great start before fracturing his right wrist. The trade for Carlos Gomez lengthens the lineup, especially when Springer returns. He is the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. On the pitching side, Dallas Keuchel drew the All Star Game starting assignment, and is the leading candidate for the AL Cy Young Award.

Verdict

It looks like the Astros are going to the postseason, barring a major collapse. Their pitching improvement has been a big key to that. Along with Keuchel, the team also has Colin McHugh, newly acquired Scott Kazmir, and rookie Lance McCullers to likely get starting assignments in October. The bullpen has been improved with the additions of Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. This is a young, inexperienced team, but a team with a lot of talent. Maybe they aren't ready to make a World Series run, but the Royals weren't that experienced going into last October.

New York Yankees

Overview

The Yankees run to first place has been aided by bounce back performances from several aging stars, including Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. Surprisingly, Alex Rodriguez has hit well since returning from his year long suspension. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner have been good table setters for the sluggers on this team. The rotation has some concerns, but has pitched well enough to keep New York in games this year. The back end of the bullpen has been dominant with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller closing down games. 

Verdict

The rotation is probably the biggest concern of this team going into the postseason. CC Sabathia is no longer the ace he used to be, and has a ERA north of 5 this year. Both Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka have had moments of brilliance, but are injury concerns. Nathan Eovaldi has been the team's most reliable starter, leading the team in innings pitched. However, Eovaldi is hardly a pitcher you would want to open a playoff series with. Rookie Luis Severino could be the pitcher that steps up and solidifies the rotation. With a lock down bullpen, a dominant rotation isn't necessary to make a deep run into October. Look at the Royals last year.

Toronto Blue Jays

Overview

No other team in the league can match the offensive firepower that the Blue Jays have. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, and Edwin Encarnacion are all multiple time All Stars with pedigrees. No wonder they lead the AL in runs scored. The pitching isn't as strong, but the addition of David Price helps with that. Price gives the team an ace that takes the pressure off of veterans RA Dickey and Mark Buehrle, as well youngsters like Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchinson.

Verdict

Since Joe Carter hit the game winning home run in Game 6 to win the 1993 World Series, Toronto hasn't been back to the postseason. The Blue Jays currently occupy the first wild card spot, but have their eyes on the division crown. They are currently right on the Yankees heel, only a half game back of first place. It would be very disappointing for the Blue Jays to make the playoffs, and lose the wild card game. The main thing that should concern Blue Jays fans is the bullpen, which has been shaky this season. It has improved since rookie Roberto Osuna took the closer job away from Brett Cecil. Toronto made all the moves a contending team can hope for, so it's up to them to get it done.

Kansas City Royals

Overview

This time last year, no one expected the Royals to come within a game of winning the World Series. Not many even expected them to make the playoffs last year. Since the All Star break last year, the Royals are 115-65, which is the second best record in that time period. The strong October performances of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Lorenzo Cain has carried over into 2015. The bullpen has been just as strong this season, with Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera actually pitching better than closer Greg Holland. The addition of Johnny Cueto gives the rotation a legit ace that it lacked. Ben Zobrist has been on fire since being picked up at the deadline. With the expected mid-September return of Alex Gordon, Zobrist will likely be shifted from left field to second base to replace the struggling Omar Infante.

Verdict

The Royals are the odds-on favorites to be the American League champions again this season. This team might be better than last year's edition. This team no longer flies under the radar, and has been a marked team this year. That might explain all the fights the Royals have been involved in this season. It hasn't changed the Royals desire to win, though.