Astros and Twins Among Early Surprises

Little was expected of the Astros and Twins, and 2015 was thought to be a rebuilding year for them. Houston hasn't had a winning season since 2008, and 2010 was the last winning season for Minnesota. Both teams entered the season with new managers. Both teams had some of the top prospects in baseball, Carlos Correa in Houston, and Brian Buxton and Miguel Sano in Minnesota. None of those players have debuted yet, but these two teams have found other contributors.

The Astros had their worst stretch in team history from 2011 to 2014. They finished a combined 184 games under .500 in that four year stretch. Houston lost over 100 games three seasons in a row during 2011 to 2013. They improved by 19 wins in 2014, going from 51 to 70. Houston also managed to get out of the basement of the division for the first time since 2010. Former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow had took over the GM role after the 2011 season, and was now starting to see his hard work pay off. The Astros had one of the game's best farm systems, and a reason for optimism for the future.

Still, no one expected the Astros to be in first place at the end of May. The Astros currently have the best record in the American League, and second best in all of baseball. Luhnow had made several moves in the offseason, acquiring Colby Rasmus, Evan Gattis, Luis Valbuena, Luke Gregerson, and Pat Neshek. Most prognosticators predicted only a modest improvement, maybe breaking .500 this year. A.J. Hinch was the fifth manager of Luhnow's tenure as GM, and he has finally found a voice in the dugout that has worked.

One of the big reasons for the Astros resurgence is the improvement of their bullpen and the emergence of Dallas Keuchel as an ace. The left hander sports a 7-1 record, and leads the league with a 1.76 ERA. The Astros may have found a compliment to Keuchel when they called up top pitching prospect Lance McCullers earlier this month. Colin McHugh has also been one of the team's better starters, but has struggled recently. The rest of the rotation is solid, but unspectacular.

There was concern that the Astros had too many power hitting, but high strikeout and low average hitters. It has turned out that they do have a lot of hitters like that, but it hasn't hurt them. They rank fifth in the AL with 219 runs scored, rank second in stolen bases, and first in home runs. They've done that with Jed Lowrie being hurt most of the year, and two sub-.200 hitters in the everyday lineup. They have been led by speedy second baseman Jose Altuve and second year outfielder George Springer, but have had a balanced attack.

Hall of Famer Paul Molitor took over as the Twins manager this year, but little was expected from Minnesota. After all, the Twins had been in the cellar of the division the past four years. The Royals came within a game of winning the World Series last year. The Tigers had won the AL Central the past four seasons. The White Sox made some major moves in the offseason, and the Indians were thought to have strong team. The Twins were a afterthought in this division, and picked by many to finish in last place.

The Twins made few moves this past offseason, other than bringing back 39 year old outfielder Torii Hunter. They also signed pitcher Ervin Santana, who was suspended 80 games for PED's before the season even started. Minnesota also kept Buxton and Sano in the minors, although they may be called up at some point later this year.

On paper, the Twins roster isn't that impressive. Joe Mauer is the most recognizable player, but he has an ordinary .707 OPS this season. Mauer still is a good average hitter, but is no longer the all around hitter he was in the past. Hunter has actually been one of the Twins best hitters this year, in what was thought to be his retirement tour. Past Mauer and Hunter, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have been two of the teams better hitters. Minnesota ranks 9th in on base pct. and 11th in slugging percentage, but has tied the Astros with 219 runs scored. They are somehow getting it done.

Pitching had been the Twins Achilles heel during in recent years. This season, it has improved. They still don't have an ace like they did in the Johan Santana era, but their pitching has kept them in games. Phil Hughes has been the veteran innings eater in the Twins rotation since joining the team last year. The Twins have also gotten a good performance out of journeyman Mike Pelfrey this season. Minnesota has also relied on two younger pitchers in Kyle Gibson and Trevor May. Gibson has pitched really well, and May has shown glimpses of his potential. Rounding out the rotation is Ricky Nolasco, another innings eater type. Not a great rotation, but much better than they have had.

The bullpen has been stronger this season for the Twins. Glen Perkins is a two time All Star closer, and is off to an even better start this season. New pitching coach Neil Allen has gotten results out of a patchwork bullpen this year. Journeyman Blaine Boyer, Aaron Thompson, and Casey Fein have pitched well as setup men for Perkins. Minnesota is awaiting the return of Ervin Santana to give them more innings to relieve stress from the bullpen.

Will the Astros and Twins continue their winning ways this year? That remains to be seen. It's a long season, and sometimes surprise teams fade later in the year. That said, these two teams are no longer doormats.

Kolten Wong Emerging As One of the League's Best Second Baseman

In 2011, the Cardinals drafted Kolten Wong with the 22nd overall pick in the first round out of the University of Hawaii. Two years later, Wong made his major league debut. He had hit .305 in over 1,200 minor league at bats, but was slow to adapt to the big leagues. In 2014, he won the second base job out of spring training; but had some growing pains along the way.

Last year's walk off home run in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Giants was a defining moment for Wong. Wong had an up and down rookie season in 2014. It included a demotion to the minors, a stint on the disabled list; and ended with a third place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Wong showed flashes of brilliance during his rookie season, playing outstanding defense at second base, stealing 20 bases, and hitting 12 home runs. Wong's 12 home runs in 2014 were the most for a Cardinals second baseman since Julian Javier hit 14 in 1967.

There was still some work to do on his game after his rookie season. Wong spent the offseason working on his hitting, hoping to improve his on base skills. Wong had been a .305 hitter in the minors. This season, Wong has adapted to big league pitching. He has raised his average to .304 and on base percentage to .355.

So far, Wong has been one of the best second baseman in the National League. Only Dee Gordon has had a better start to 2015. Wong ranks right behind him, and is pushing for a spot on the All Star team. Much has been made about the weak and aging talent pool at second, but Wong is emerging as one of the successors to the dominance that Chase Utley and Brandon Phillips enjoyed at this position for the past decade. Here's how Wong ranks with other top National League second baseman:


Player              Team   AB    R     H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB AVG OBP  SLG
K Wong            STL   138   19   42   6    1     5     18    3   .304  .355   .471
D Gordon         MIA   155   24   63  10   2     0     14   12  .406  .430   .497
H Kendrick       LAD  140   21   43  10   1     4     17    2   .307  .370   .479
N Walker          PIT    135   16   37  11   0     2     13   2    .274  .344   .400
B Phillips           CIN   129   17   40   1    0     2     17   5    .310   .355  .364
J Panik              SF     129   14    36  6    2     2     10   1     .279  .354   .403
D LaMahieu      COL  140   21   43   4   2     1     17    3    .322   .376   .417

Besides Gordon, Wong is arguably having the second best season for an NL second baseman. Howie Kendrick is pretty close. Brandon Phillips could sneak his way on the team since the game is in Cincinnati this year, but his numbers aren't quite as good as Wong's. Bruce Bochy will be the NL's manager, so he might be tempted to pick his own player, Joe Panik. DJ LaMahieu plays his home games at Coors Field, which inflates his numbers. The American League has the better crop of second baseman, without a doubt. Here's how Wong stacks up against the AL's best:

Player            Team    AB    R    H    2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB   AVG  OBP  SLG
J Altuve          HOU   158   22   50    9     0    5     24    14   .316   .374   .468
R Cano           SEA    150   18   38   12   0     1     11     1    .253   .294   .353
B Dozier         MIN    144   29   38   10   2     6     19     3    .264   .347   .486
I Kinsler         DET     154   25   49   10   2     0     20    5     .318   .389   .409
J Kipnis          CLE     153   25   51    9   2     4      17    5     .333   .399   .497
D Pedroia      BOS     145   15   40   5    0     5      15    1     .276    .363  .414
D Travis         TOR     133   24   36   10  0     7      26    2    .271    .336   .504

There are several AL second baseman having outstanding seasons; with Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, and Ian Kinsler leading the pack. One of them could get squeezed if Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia take the fan's vote. In his second full season, Wong has emerged as a top ten second baseman. His numbers rank among the majors best at the position.

Wong will only improve with age and experience. He seems like a player who wants to work on his game to get better. Soon, he might be the best second baseman in the majors. He has that good of an all around game. He has improved his weaknesses from last season, mainly the on base skills. Wong has uncharacteristically made five errors so far this year, but I would consider that to be an aberration. Kolten has shown great range at second base, and makes plays other second baseman can't make.

In his brief major league career, Wong has shown a flair for the dramatic. He has had many clutch hitters, including several walk off home runs. The most memorable was his one against the Giants in the NLCS last year, the only game the Cardinals won in that series. Wong's NLCS walk off home run was only the fourth postseason walk off homer in Cardinals history. The others were Ozzie Smith (1985 NLCS), Jim Edmonds (2004 NLCS), and David Freese (2011 World Series). He also had a walk off home run during an extra innings game vs. the Pirates a few weeks ago. His 8th inning home run against the Tigers put the Cardinal ahead for the win during Sunday night's nationally televised game.

Second base has been a revolving door for the Cardinals for most of the last couple of decades. They've signed veterans like Tony Womack and Mark Grudzielanek to fill in, used utility players like Luis Alicea, Aaron Miles, Daniel Descalso, and Jose Oquendo to play second. They've also converted players from other positions to play second, like Skip Schumaker and Matt Carpenter. Since the team traded away Tommy Herr in 1988, the longest to hold on to the position was Fernando Vina from 2000-03. With Wong, the Cardinals have their starting second baseman for years to come.


 

Overcoming the Loss of Wainwright

The Cardinals suffered a huge blow on Saturday when Adam Wainwright tore his left Achilles. St. Louis lost their ace, and one of the most durable starters in the majors. It was a freak injury similar to Ryan Howard's Achilles injury at the final out of the 2011 Division Series. Not only is Wainwright one of the best pitchers in the league, he is a mentor to the team's younger pitchers.

If any team can overcome an injury like this, it's the Cardinals. After all, this team won the World Series in 2011 after Wainwright underwent season ending Tommy John surgery during spring training. This year's edition of the Redbirds has several young hard throwing starters, something the 2011 team did not have. Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez are three of the most talented starters in the league. Lynn has proven himself to be a 200 inning workhorse pitcher, while Wacha and Martinez have not.

Besides veteran John Lackey, this is a really young rotation with Wainwright's season ending injury. Lynn is the second most experienced starter, and he is only in his fourth full season. He took a major step forward in 2014, and has become even more important now. Wacha missed several months last year because of shoulder soreness. Wacha has shown flashes of greatness, including his 2013 postseason run. However, Wacha has yet to prove to be a durable major league starter. It's unclear if the Cardinals can count on him for 200 innings right now.

Martinez was one of the Cardinals most hyped pitching prospects for years. This year, he finally got a chance to be in the big league rotation after the trade of Shelby Miller. Martinez has electric stuff, but has bounced between the rotation and bullpen during his big leagues stints in 2013 and 2014. When in the rotation, Martinez had struggled to pitch past 5 innings. So far this year, Martinez has pitched really well. The Cardinals are counting on him to step up.

There is no question about the ability of the Cardinals young starters and minor league prospects, but there are concerns about filling the gap of innings lost due to Wainwright's injury. If Wacha and Martinez step up, the Cardinals rotation will be fine. There are plenty of internal options to fill in as the fifth starter. They may not necessarily have to make a big deal because of this. If none of these options work out, John Mozeliak won't hesitate to make a deal later in the year.

Among the options to take the vacant rotation spot include minor leaguers Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney, John Gast, and Marco Gonzales. Oft-injured Jaime Garcia could be an option if he ever gets healthy. If things got really desperate, the Cardinals could turn to major league reliever Carlos Villanueva. As of right now, either Lyons or Cooney are likely to Thursday's start that Waino would of had.

Long term, Gonzales has the best long term potential of all these pitchers. Gonzales nearly made the team out of spring training, but he lost out on the fifth starter competition to Martinez. Gonzales would of likely gotten the call if it wasn't for a minor shoulder issue that landed him on the 7 day disabled list. The lefty showed flashes of his potential last fall, when he picked up two wins in relief during the Division Series against the Dodgers.

Lyons has filled in a few different times the last couple of seasons in the big league rotation. While he doesn't have the potential of Gonzales, he can be a serviceable starter. The Cardinals are hoping to get something out of Garcia this year, but he hasn't pitched a full season since 2011. Cooney has pitched well in Triple A this year, but will need to be added to the 40 man roster before making his major league debut.

Mozeliak will give the internal options before exploring pitchers outside the organization. The Cardinals have long been a potential landing spot for Cole Hamels, but the Phillies price has been steep. The Cardinals would have to assume his contract, which is guaranteed until 2017. The Cardinals were rumored to be in the running for Hamels this past offseason, but nothing materialized. These rumors could heat up again towards the deadline. There are other pitchers that could potentially be on the market as well. Mozeliak has proven that he will pull the trigger in the past, with the midseason acquisitions of Jake Westbrook, Edwin Jackson, and Lackey.

Wainwright's injury has reignited the debate on the designated hitter in the National League. The Nationals Max Scherzer has called for the DH to be adopted by the NL. Scherzer recently injured his thumb batting. Wainwright has always been adequate with the bat, and there is no guarantee that this injury wouldn't of happened while pitching. I've always been more of a fan of the NL style of play over the American League DH style. Some pitchers are against a change, like the Giants Madison Bumgarner. Still, this could be a catalyst that changes things. The Players Association has long wanted the DH in both leagues, and new commissioner Rob Manfred may want to add it to increase offense.

As for Wainwright, it will be a tough road ahead. It will take 9 to 12 months of recovery before he's ready to return. Even then, there will be an adjustment period. It will take awhile for Wainwright to become comfortable with his delivery. After all, Howard has never been the same since his Achilles injury. That said, Wainwright has a history of overcoming adversity and injuries.

2015 MLB Predictions

NL East
1) Nationals
2) Marlins(WC)
3) Mets
4) Braves
5) Phillies

The Nationals finished with the NL's best record two out of the past three years, and added Max Scherzer in the offseason. They have one of the most talented rosters in the league, and have the best starting rotation in baseball. This is a big year for the Nats, with Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmerman, Denard Span, and Doug Fister all entering the final years of their contract. Bryce Harper is confident enough to ask where his ring is at, but they have been unable to advance past the first round with this group.

There are never any certainties in baseball, but it is very unlikely that the Nats won't win the East. They will make a push for the majors best record this year. However, the Marlins and Mets have reason for optimism in the two team wild card climate. The Mets will be without Zack Wheeler for the season, but will have a healthy Matt Harvey, and 2014 Rookie of the Year Jacob DeGrom in what should be a strong pitching staff. The Marlins signed Giancarlo Stanton to a long term extension, and added Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, Michael Morse, Ichiro Suzuki, Dan Haren, and Mat Latos during the offseason. With a core of Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Henderson Alvarez, and Jose Fernandez(returning from TJ surgery), this is a team that should be in contention this year.

At the back end of the NL East is the Braves and Phillies. The Braves unloaded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis in trades that replenished the farm system. They were a poor offensive club last year, and it's hard to imagine them being any better this year. While the Braves went into rebuild mode looking into the future, the Phillies still seem stuck in the past. They did trade away longtime shortstop Jimmy Rollins, but return many aging veterans from their glory years of the past.

NL Central
1) Cardinals
2) Pirates
3) Reds
4) Cubs
5) Brewers

The NL Central looks to be one of the strongest divisions in baseball. The Cubs made the most noise this offseason, adding manager Joe Maddon, Miguel Montero, Jon Lester, and Dexter Fowler. Slugger Kris Bryant should make an impact this season, although he could find himself starting the year in Triple A. Even with these improvements, the Cubs still have some question marks. Some of the prognostications of the Cubbies have been overly optimistic. This team only won 73 games in 2014. I still think it's premature to put this team in the playoffs right now.

The Cardinals have dominated this division over the years, and look to be the class of the division again this year. Their offense slumped last year, and the team hopes that the addition of Jason Heyward and improvement from their other regulars will lead to a rebound. A healthy Yadier Molina is also key. There have been some concerns about Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, and the health of the rotation, but there is still plenty of pitching depth.

I see the Pirates being the Cardinals closest competitor this season. The loss of Russell Martin hurts, but this is still a solid team. The Reds are a hard team to gauge. Their season was wrecked last year after injuries to Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and other key players. There is a sense of urgency with the Reds considering that Johnny Cueto is approaching free agency. The Reds lack depth, but could contend with rebound season from Votto and Co. The Brewers actually led the division for five months last year, until they faded in September. They still have a solid lineup, but questionable pitching.

NL West
1) Dodgers
2) Padres(WC)
3) Giants
4) Rockies
5) Diamondbacks

The Dodgers finished six games ahead of the Giants last year, but October wasn't so kind to them. NL MVP and Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw lost two games in the NLDS to his nemesis in St. Louis. The Giants went on to win their third World Series in the last five years. Thanks in much to Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner won five games in October, and closed out Game 7 of the World Series.

Despite what happened in October, the Dodgers look to have the best team on paper this year. They traded away Matt Kemp to the Padres, which clears room in their crowded outfield. They also parted ways with Hanley Ramirez, and added Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal, and Brandon McCarthy. The Giants had a quiet offseason, but lost a lot of offense with the departures of Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse. Hunter Pence will also be out the first month because of injury. A lot falls on the shoulders of Buster Posey, but a healthy Angel Pagan, and a breakout season from Brandon Belt could soften the blow for the Giants. I would never count out the Giants, but it looks like the odd year jinx will hit them again this year.

The Padres are a much more interesting club than they were last year. New GM AJ Preller added Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, James Shields, and several other players during a very busy offseason for San Diego. There are some concerns about team defense, but the offense should be much better. Bud Black was able to squeeze 77 wins out of a anemic offense last year, and should get the most out of a much more talented roster this year. The Diamondbacks and Rockies are two of the worst teams in the majors. Arizona added Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas, and made several trades for pitchers. The Rockies did very little this offseason, and there hopes again depend on the health of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

AL East
1) Blue Jays
2) Red Sox(WC)
3) Orioles
4) Yankees
5) Rays

The AL West isn't as strong as it once was. The Yankees aren't what they once where, and the Rays seem to be rebuilding. The Red Sox made some big moves picking up Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, but have concerns about their starting pitching. The Orioles won the division last year, but loss Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, and Andrew Miller in the offseason. The Blue Jays enter this season with the majors longest playoff drought, not making the postseason since 1993. They hope to change that with the additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson.

I'm picking the Blue Jays to win this division, but I see it being a close three way race involving the Red Sox and Orioles. Toronto was the division favorite two seasons ago after a busy 2012/13 offseason, but they ended up in last place. That makes me somewhat unconfident of this pick. The loss of Marcus Stroman for the year is a tough loss. However, Toronto has a emerging Drew Hutchison, along with top pitching prospects Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez. They also have one of the leagues best lineups with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, Martin, and Donaldson.

The Red Sox still have some kinks to work out, but should be improved this year after a disappointing last place finish in 2014. I don't see them reaching their championship heights of 2013, but they can't be counted out. They have the prospects and financial resources to go after a Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels that could put them over the top. The Orioles were perceived to have a poor offseason, but could ease the sting of that by healthy seasons from Manny Machado and Matt Weiters, and a bounceback year from Chris Davis. The Rays stripped down this offseason, and will likely scratch out runs this year. They do have a good, young pitching staff, though. This might be the worst Yankees team in a couple of decades. They are still reliant on too many aging veterans.


AL Central
1) Indians
2) White Sox(WC)
3) Royals
4) Tigers
5) Twins

I see the AL Central being a very competitive division this season. The Tigers have won the division the past four years, but the gap has closed. The Royals gave the Tigers a run for the division crown last year, and rallied in the second half to claim a wild card spot. It nearly resulted in a World Series title. The White Sox made a big splash this offseason, acquiring Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Zack Duke, Melky Cabrera, and Adam LaRoche. This team already has some high end players like Jose Abreu, Chris Sale, and top pitching prospect Carlos Rodon.

While all three of those teams could win this division, I'm picking Cleveland. The only major addition was trading for Brandon Moss, but Terry Francona has an up and coming team. The Indians were a playoff team in 2013, and won 85 games last year. Several players took big steps up. Lonnie Chisenhall solidified himself as a solid regular. Carlos Santana went on a second half tear. Michael Brantley finished third in MVP voting. Corey Kluber became an unlikely Cy Young Award winner. The Indians have several young up and coming pitchers. Top shortstop prospect Francisco Lindor should arrive in the big leagues sometime this year.

The Tigers are at a crossroads. They still have a good lineup led by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, but there are question marks at shortstop and center field. Max Scherzer left as a free agent, and David Price is in the final year of his contract. Anibal Sanchez had a injury shortened 2014, and Justin Verlander wasn't himself last year. They could still win the division, but it will be a much tougher task in 2015. The Twins have made some improvements, but will likely finish at the bottom again this year. New manager Paul Molitor does have some reason for optimism with top prospects Brian Buxton and Miguel Sano potentially coming up sometime later this year.

AL West
1) Mariners
2) Angels
3) Rangers
4) Athletics
5) Astros

I see the AL West as a two team race between the Angels and the Mariners. The Angels won a MLB best 98 games last year, but were swept by the Royals in the Division Series. They return most of the same team, with Garret Richards returning from injury. The status of Josh Hamilton is uncertain, but he didn't have the best year last year, anyway. Matthew Joyce was acquired as a backup plan. Other than that, the only major move was trading away Howie Kendrick for left handed rookie pitcher Andrew Heaney. The offense will again rely on MVP Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Erick Aybar. Still a lot of talent on this team, but they will likely see some regression from last year.

The Mariners haven't made the postseason since 2001, when they won a MLB record 116 games. Mariners fans have a reason to be optimistic with one of the league's best pitching staffs led by Felix Hernandez. They signed slugger Nelson Cruz to beef up a lineup that includes Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. This team was one win away from tying Oakland for a playoff spot last year, and I think this should be their year to get in.

Oakland made some major changes, and even their most diehard fan will need a scorecard to identify their team. They parted ways with Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, Jeff Samardzija, Jon Lester, and added Billy Butler, Ben Zobrist, and a bunch of prospects. They will likely take a step back this season. Texas is the hardest team in the league to predict. They suffered through some major injuries last year, and are hoping for a return to form from Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo. Yu Darvish going down with Tommy John surgery is a bad sign for a club hoping for better health in 2015. The Astros actually finished in fourth place and avoided a fourth consecutive 100 loss season in 2014. They are an improving club, although still in developmental stage. They have some key pieces for the future with Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Dallas Keuchel. They made some additions, picking up Pat Neshek, Luke Gregerson, Evan Gattis, Jed Lowrie, and Colby Rasmus. They also have one of the league's best farm systems, and the #3 prospect Carlos Correa. Should be a really good team in another year or two.

Playoffs

Wild Card Game
Marlins over Padres
White Sox over Red Sox

Division Series
Nationals over Marlins
Cardinals over Dodgers
Mariners over White Sox
Indians over Blue Jays

Championship Series
Cardinals over Nationals
Indians over Mariners

World Series
Cardinals over Indians

NL MVP
1) Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
2) Andrew McCutchen, PIT
3) Anthony Rendon, WASH
4) Yasiel Puig, LAD
5) Yadier Molina, STL
6) Clayton Kershaw, LAD
7) Buster Posey, SF
8) Justin Upton, SD
9) Anthony Rizzo, CHIC
10) Jason Heyward, STL

AL MVP
1) Robinson Cano, SEA
2) Jose Bautista, TOR
3) Jose Abreu, CHIWS
4) Mike Trout, LAA
5) Carlos Santana, CLE
6) Miguel Cabrera, DET
7) Josh Donaldson, TOR
8) Dustin Pedroia, BOS
9) Felix Hernandez, SEA
10) Alex Gordon, KC

NL CYA
1) Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2) Max Scherzer, WASH
3) Madison Bumgarner, SF
4) Jordan Zimmermann, WASH
5) Michael Wacha, STL

AL CYA
1) Felix Hernandez, SEA
2) Chris Sale, CHIWS
3) David Price, DET
4) Corey Kluber, CLE
5) Alex Cobb, TB

NL ROY
1) Kris Bryant, CHIC
2) Jorge Soler, CHIC
3) Joc Pederson, LAD
4) Yasmany Tomas, ARZ
5) Jon Gray, COL

AL ROY
1) Carlos Rodon, CHIWS
2) Andrew Heaney, LAA
3) Francisco Lindor, CLE
4) Daniel Norris, TOR
5) Dalton Pompey, TOR

NL Manager of the Year
1) Mike Redmond, MIA
2) Bud Black, SD
3) Brian Price, CIN

AL Manager of the Year
1) Terry Francona, CLE
2) Lloyd McClendon, SEA
3) John Gibbons, TOR

NL Gold Gloes
C-Yadier Molina, STL
1B-Joey Votto, CIN
2B-Kolten Wong, STL
SS-Andrelton Simmons, ATL
3B-Anthony Rendon, WASH
LF-Christian Yelich, MIA
CF-Andrew McCutchen, PIT
RF-Jason Heyward, STL
P-Madison Bumgarner, SF

AL Gold Gloves
C-Salvador Perez, KC
1B-Eric Hosmer, KC
2B-Dustin Pedroia, BOS
SS-Elvis Andrus, TEX
3B-Manny Machado, BAL
LF-Alex Gordon, KC
CF-Lorenzo Cain, KC
RF-Josh Reddick, OAK
P-Chris Sale, CHIWS

NL Silver Sluggers
C- Buster Posey, SF
1B-Anthony Rizzo, CHIC
2B-Kolten Wong, SF
SS-Troy Tulowitzki, COL
3B- Anthony Rendon, WASH
LF-Justin Upton, ATL
CF-Andrew McCutchen,PIT
RF-Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
P-Zack Greinke, LAD

AL Silver Slugger
C-Russell Martin, TOR
1B-Jose Abreu, CHIWS
2B-Robinson Cano, SEA
SS-JJ Hardy, BAL
3B-Josh Donaldson, TOR
LF-Michael Brantley, CLE
CF-Mike Trout, LAA
RF-Jose Bautista, TOR
DH-Edwin Encarnacion, TOR

Cardinals 2015 Preview

2014 Record: 90-72, lost to San Francisco in NLCS 4-1
2014 Runs Scored: 619
2014 Runs Allowed: 603
Additions: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Matt Belisle, Carlos Villanueva, Ty Kelly, Dean Anna, Mark Reynolds
Losses: Oscar Taveras, Daniel Descalso, AJ Pierzynski, Pat Neshek, Shelby Miller, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Shane Robinson

The 2014 season was an up and down year for the Cardinals. St. Louis spent much of the season behind the Brewers, until catching them late in the season. They didn't take full possession of first place until September 1st, which they held on to for the rest of the season. The Cardinals also scored 183 less runs in 2014 than they did in the previous season. In fact, the Redbirds only scored 16 runs more than they allowed last season.

Still, the Cardinals beat the favored Dodgers in the Division Series. This included beating NL MVP and three time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw twice in the series. This moved Mike Matheny's squad to the NLCS, where they faced the Giants for the second time in three years. Another dominant lefty awaited, Madison Bumgarner. The Cardinals lost to Bumgarner twice, and loss two more close games to blow the series.

It was a disappointing finish to the season, but the Cardinals went further than many prognosticators predicted them to. Still, this was a team with talented veterans and emerging young talent positioned well for 2015. Then some even worse news hit the Cardinals. Less than two weeks after their elimination, Oscar Taveras died in a car accident in the Dominican Republic. The player who was supposed to be a big part of the Cardinals future was gone.

GM John Mozeliak quickly filled the void early in the offseason. The original plan was to let Taveras and Randal Grichuk compete for the right field job in spring training. With Taveras' death and the team's lack of offense, Mozeliak made a major move. He traded starting pitcher Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for right fielder Jason Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden. This is somewhat of a risky trade considering that Heyward is a year away from free agency, and the years they are giving away from Miller and possibly Jenkins.

Still, Heyward is a big upgrade in the short term. He is the best defensive right fielder in baseball, and will be an offensive upgrade from last year's right field production. Heyward hasn't developed into a superstar, but gets on base, has speed on the basepaths, and has power potential. Walden will be one of Matheny's top setup relievers, and replace Pat Neshek. I would imagine that the Cardinals front office intends to keep Heyward around, and will make a serious effort at that.

Offensively, I would expect this team to improve for 2015. I'm not saying they are going to lead the NL in runs scored like they did in 2013 or 2011. Still, this is a club that underachieved with the bat last year. Matt Carpenter has been this team's sparkplug since taking over the leadoff spot in April 2013. Carpenter had a solid season in 2014, but it was a significant drop off from 2013. Carpenter's line dropped from .318/.392/.481 (average/on base/slugging) in 2013 to .272/.375/.375 in 2014. It might be unrealistic for Carpenter to match his 2013 season, but I would expect him to improve on his numbers for 2015. He showed in the postseason that he can still hit for power. Carpenter had 4 doubles and 4 home runs in 8 playoff games last year.

While Carpenter is the Cardinals catalyst, there are two more important players in their offensive attack, Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Holliday struggled in the first half, but had his usual dominant second half. His splits were .265/.373/.389 in the first half, and .281/.367/.515 in the second half. He hit 14 of his 20 home runs in the second half. Holliday is now 35 years old, and may be on a slow decline phase. However, with his strong second half, I have hope that he will have a rebound year in 2015.

Molina suffered a thumb injury that cost him two months last year. It sapped him of his power, but he managed to hit .282 for the season. Maybe, Molina's power days are numbered and he'll never match his totals from 2011 to 2013. Then again, I would chalk that up to injuries. Molina is entering his age 32 season, and has caught a heavy workload during his 11 years in the league. Matheny would be wise to not to ride Molina so hard during the season. Give him an occasional day off, or even give him a spot start at first base on occasions. They need to keep Molina fresh for the postseason.

The Cardinals might have the division's best middle infield. Jhonny Peralta got off to a slow start, but picked it up later in the year. He finished with a club record 21 home runs for a shortstop. He also exceeded expectations on his defense. At second base, Kolten Wong enters the season as the entrenched starter. Wong finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .249 with 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Wong didn't fully get going last year until after a stint in the minor leagues and the disabled list. With Wong fully confident in his abilities, this could be a breakout season for him.

Another young player the Cardinals are looking for improvement from is Matt Adams. Adams seemed too focused on beating the shift, and it sacrificed his power. He hit only 15 home runs last year, which is two less than he hit in 244 less plate appearances during the 2013 season. The Cardinals are also concerned about his lack of walks. They brought in Mark Reynolds to be a right handed compliment, but the Cardinals need Adams to step up. This is the guy with the most power potential on the team.

At center field, Jon Jay enters the season as the team's starter. Last season, Jay entered the season with an undefined role, but his play pushed his way into the lineup. Jay isn't a flashy defender, doesn't have breakaway speed, nor is he a power hitter, but he does get on base. Peter Bourjos returns after an up and down season last year. Bourjos could be a key contributor this year if he can pick up his hitting. Bourjos has the raw talent that Jay doesn't have, but only hit .234 for the Redbirds last year. He enters the season in a fourth outfielder role.

Matheny has many different options on setting his lineup. Carpenter has been a very good leadoff hitter, but could be moved down to the number 2 or 3 spot, if needed. Jay and Heyward have experience in the leadoff role as well, and there has been rumblings of Wong leading off if he got his OBP up. Heyward may also be a middle of the lineup hitter, if his power increases. Spring training will play a big role on Matheny figuring out the right lineup mix this year. The offense was down last year, but it was league wide. The Cardinals are banking on a rebound this season.

Defensively, this could be one of the best Cardinals teams since the Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen era. Heyward comes with the reputation of an elite defender. When paired with Bourjos in center, the Cardinals would have two outfielders that could cover a ton of ground. Wong and Peralta are very good up the middle. Wong could have a Gold Glove in his future. Carpenter has re-adjusted to his natural position at third base, after some early problems last year. As always, Molina's defensive contributions are vital for this club. He is a great framer of pitches, works good with the young pitching staff, is good at blocking balls in the dirt, and still has a cannon for an arm. He shuts down the opponents running game.

The Cardinals bench will be slightly different this year. Mark Ellis and Daniel Descalso are gone, and the team added a couple of Rule V guys to compete for a utility infield spot with Pete Kozma and Greg Garcia. Shane Robinson was let go in the offseason, and the club could see more of Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty at some point this year. Tony Cruz returns as the backup catcher. Cruz, Bourjos, and Reynolds are locks to make the club, with two bench roles up for grabs.

In the rotation, the Cardinals still have plenty of depth, despite the trade of Miller. Adam Wainwright anchors the staff, and is coming off one of his best years. There are some concerns about his elbow and his inning workload, but Wainwright has proven to be a horse. This is a guy you can count on for 200 plus innings, a sub-3 ERA, and close to 20 wins.

Lance Lynn made a huge step up last season. Lynn won over 15 games for the third straight season, and reached the 200 inning mark for the second straight season. The biggest improvement was Lynn's ERA which dropped to 2.74, which was 9th in the National League. After Lynn, the Cardinals will go with John Lackey in the third spot. Lackey came over in a midseason trade that involved Joe Kelly and Allen Craig last July. He is a veteran presence in the rotation, and is in the final year of his contract.

The Cardinals can probably depend on their first three starters, but there are some question marks in the back end of the rotation. Michael Wacha missed most of the second half due to his shoulder. If Wacha's shoulder is healed, then the Cardinals will be in good shape. The 2013 NLCS MVP was encouraged by a pre-spring training bullpen session. For the fifth spot, it looks like the team will go with Carlos Martinez. Martinez has filthy stuff, but there are questions about his ability to go deeper than 5 innings.

There are some other options if the team needs another starter. The Redbirds were rumored to be in the market for a big name starter in the offseason, but those rumors turned out to be unfounded. Lefty Marco Gonzales will be the first option if another starter is needed. Gonzales won two games out of the bullpen in the NLDS against the Dodgers last fall. He is a fast riser like Wacha, debuting a year after being drafted. Tyler Lyons is another possibility, if needed. Jaime Garcia returns for the final year of his contract, but who knows what to expect from him? Garcia hasn't pitched a full season since 2011. Any contribution Garcia gives should be looked on as a bonus at this point.

The bullpen was somewhat of a trouble spot last year. Trevor Rosenthal epitomized that inconsistency. Rosenthal was dominant in 2013, but was up and down in 2014. Rosenthal blew 6 saves and lost 6 games during 2014. His strikeout rate decreased, and his walk rate increased. The Cardinals desperately need Rosenthal to find his 2013 success.

Jordan Walden was acquired in the Heyward trade, and has closing experience. He was a All Star closer for the Angels in 2011, and has been Craig Kimbrel's top setup man for the past two seasons in Atlanta. Walden will be taking the role that Pat Neshek had last year. Walden looks to be Matheny's insurance in case Rosenthal has any problems this year.

With Martinez moving to the rotation, and Jason Motte also leaving via free agency, that leaves Seth Maness as the lone right handed holdover from last year's bullpen. Matt Belisle and Carlos Villanueva were picked up in the offseason as low cost bullpen options. Mozeliak is hoping that he can find another Neshek. Another option is rookie Sam Tuivailala, who will compete with Belisle and Villanueva for a bullpen job.

From the left side, the team has many options. Veteran Randy Choate returns after a shaky postseason. Sam Freeman had a breakout year last year, after several years of shifting from the minors to the majors. Gonzales could be an option, but the club would prefer him to be in the rotation (which could start him in the minors). Nick Greenwood and Kevin Siegrist are other options for the bullpen. Siegrist is the most intriguing option. He was dominant in 2013, but struggled mightily in 2014. If Siegrist gets it going, then the Cardinals will have a very good late inning option.

The Cardinals enter spring training with a very solid ballclub. There are very few holes, but a couple of potential problem areas. Mozeliak has proven that he will address a need in the middle of the season, if need be. The NL Central is possibly the toughest division in the major leagues right now. The Pirates were a playoff team last year, the Brewers led the division for five months, the Reds won't be as injury bitten, and the Cubs are improving. The Cardinals are one of the most talented teams in the majors, and should make another run at a championship this year.

Expected Lineup

3B Matt Carpenter
RF Jason Heyward
LF Matt Holliday
SS Jhonny Peralta
1B Matt Adams
C Yadier Molina
2B Kolten Wong
CF Jon Jay

Bench

CF Peter Bourjos
MI Mark Reynolds
C Tony Cruz
IF Pete Kozma
OF Randal Grichuk/IF Greg Garcia

Rotation

RH Adam Wainwright
RH Lance Lynn
RH John Lackey
RH Michael Wacha
RH Carlos Martinez/LH Marco Gonzales

Bullpen

RH Trevor Rosenthal
RH Jordan Walden
LH Sam Freeman
LH Randy Choate
LH Kevin Siegrist
RH Seth Maness
RH Matt Belisle/RH Carlos Villanueva

The Cubs Expectations Aren't Based in Reality

There has been a lot of buzz about the Chicago Cubs this offseason. The high profile additions of manager Joe Maddon and left handed pitcher Jon Lester will do that. Another reason for the optimism is the talented prospects the Cubs have. Expectations for the Cubs are sky high for an organization that hasn't won a World Series since 1908. Las Vegas has given the Cubs 14-1 odds to win the World Series, the same odds as that perennial winners like the Red Sox and Cardinals have. Maddon and Team President Theo Epstein expect the team to contend this year. Even first baseman Anthony Rizzo thinks that the Cubs are "World Series worthy."

Cubbie fans are set up for more disappointment if they think 2015 is going to be their year. This ball club has finished in last place the past five years. Last year's record of 73-89 was their best record in five years. Maddon will be the Cubs third manager in the Epstein era in four seasons. It took 88 wins for the Giants to win the last wild card spot last season. Even if everything goes right, are the Cubs going to be 15 games (or more) better than last year?

The NL Central is one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Going into the season, the Cardinals are clearly a better team. The Pirates were a playoff team last year. The Brewers were division leaders for five months of the season, until a September collapse. The Reds were plagued by injuries last year, but were a playoff team three out of the four previous seasons. That said, the Cubs aren't going to be a doormat anymore. I believe they will show some improvement, and possibly make a run at .500 this coming season. How do they compare with the rest of the division?

Catcher

The Cubs traded for former Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero this offseason. Montero was an All Star replacement for Yadier Molina last season, but had a down year. Now 31, Montero may not be the same hitter he was from 2009 to 2012. He is a defensive upgrade from Wellington Castillo, but his offensive numbers weren't much different than Castillo's(except for OBP). Russell Martin departed the Pirates via free agency, but this division includes Molina, Jonathon Lucroy, and Devin Mesoraco.    Cubs-4th best

First Baseman

Anthony Rizzo had a breakout season last year, making his first All Star team. Rizzo was second in the NL with 32 home runs and fourth in OBP. He is also a good defensive first baseman, and has emerged as one of the league's best at first. In the Central, only Joey Votto can compare to him. Votto is coming off a season in which he missed 100 games. When healthy, Votto is an on base machine that plays good defense. I think Votto has a comeback year this year, and will give him the benefit of the doubt.    Cubs-2nd best

Second Baseman

Javier Baez is the likely starter at second for the Cubs. He has a lot of power, but struck out 95 times in 213 big league at bats. Baez hit only .169 and is not a patient hitter. That said, Baez hit 37 home runs in the minors in 2013. If he can adjust to big league pitching, he has star potential. That said, he has a lot to prove. That's why the Cubs traded for Tommy La Stella as a back up plan. Right now, it is hard to place Baez ahead of any division rival at second. Brandon Phillips has been the division's best second baseman for years, but Neil Walker has probably overtaken him. Kolten Wong finished third in ROY voting, and could make a major leap forward this year. Even Scooter Gennett has to be considered better than Baez at this point.    Cubs-5th best

Shorstop

It seems like Starlin Castro has been playing forever, but he will only be 25 this season. Castro has already made three All Star teams in that span. The Cubs also have Addison Russell waiting in the wings in the minors. The Cubs will hold on to Castro this year, but a trade or position switch could be in the future. Castro looks to be the second best shortstop to the Cardinals Jhonny Peralta.  Cubs-2nd best

Third Baseman

With the Cubs trade of Luis Valbuena, they have opened up third base for 2013 top pick Kris Bryant. Bryant crushed 43 home runs combined in Double A and Triple A. Chicago isn't sure if Bryant is going to be a third baseman or left fielder, but will likely start him at third this season. Maddon has experience with rookie third baseman, with Evan Longoria in 2008 with the Rays. This division also has All Stars Todd Frazier, Matt Carpenter, and Aramis Ramirez. Josh Harrison was also an All Star as an outfielder, but will replace Pedro Alvarez, who moves to first base. Ramirez is now 36, and posted his lowest OPS since 2010. Right now, it is hard to place Bryant. He has the talent to be the best third baseman in the league, but could also be the worst. Right now, I can only put him above Harrison, and he could move ahead of Ramirez. Cubs-4th best

Left Fielder

Chris Coghlan took over as the team's left fielder, and had his best season since he won the 2009 Rookie of the Year. Coghlan has been up and down throughout his career, and have Junior Lake and Arismendy Alcantara as backup options. This is a weak spot for the Cubs, and their rivals are all better at this spot.   Cubs-5th best

Center Fielder

Alcantara was pegged at center, but the trade for Dexter Fowler changes those plans. Alcantara could be sent down for more seasoning, but will likely make some contributions to this year's team. Fowler gives the team a temporary fix and upgrade. Still, this division contains elite center fielders Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gomez. It also contains Billy Hamilton and the Cardinals duo of Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos. Hamilton is the fastest player in the league and plays great defense. He isn't that much of a hitter, and is caught stealing more than he should be. There is a big gap from McCutchen/Gomez and the rest. It's really a coinflip on this one.   Cubs-tied for 3rd with STL and CIN

Right Fielder

Of all the Cubs prospects to make their debut last year, Jorge Soler looked the best. The Cuban hit 5 home runs and .292 in 24 late season games. It could be a battle between Soler and Bryant for NL Rookie of the Year in 2015. This division includes established right fielders like Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun, and Jay Bruce. Heyward is the best defensive right fielder in baseball, and came over to St. Louis in an offseason trade. Braun is coming off a down year, and there are questions on how good the post-suspension Braun will be. Bruce has some questions surrounding him as well, due to injuries. Still, both of these two players have a track record that leads to expectations of a rebound. The Pirates also debuted a top prospect, Gregory Polanco last year. Soler looked more impressive than Polanco in 2015, with Polanco struggling in the big leagues.   Cubs-4th best(could move up)

Starting Rotation

The addition of Jon Lester certainly improves the rotation. Lester split last year between the Red Sox and Athletics, and had one of his best seasons. Epstein's familiarity with him was a key factor in luring him to Chicago. While this is an exciting move for the team, Lester is just one pitcher. The team is relying on Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Liam Hendricks, and Edwin Jackson to complete it's rotation. Arrieta had a breakout season at age 28 last year, posting a 2.53 ERA. However, Arrieta only pitched 156.2 innings. Wood was an All Star in 2013, but his ERA ballooned to 5.03 last year. His rebound would give the Cubs a second lefty and a good middle of the rotation starter. Hammel returns after being traded away last year to Oakland. Hendricks pitched well in 13 starts after his call up last year, and has the edge over Jackson for the last spot.

The Cubs depth after Lester is questionable, and is clearly behind other teams in the division. The Cardinals have the best rotation in the division, led by Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn. There are some questions with Michael Wacha's shoulder, Carlos Martinez's readiness, and even Wainwright's elbow. John Lackey returns for 2015, and the team also has young lefty Marco Gonzales and oft-injured Jaime Garcia as other rotation options. No other team can match the Cardinals pitching depth and quality.

The Reds also have a formidable rotation led by Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. They traded away Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, but still have Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani in their rotation. The Pirates subtracted Edinson Volquez, but brought back AJ Burnett and retained Francisco Liriano. The biggest key for Pittsburgh's success is the development of Gerrit Cole. Cole has top of the rotation stuff, and could make a leap forward this season. Milwaukee traded away Yovani Gallardo to open room for Jimmy Nelson, but now are thin on depth. The Brewers have a rotation with solid, but not spectacular pitchers like Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, and Wily Peralta. I think that the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates rotation is clearly better than Chicago's right now. The Brewers have a more balanced rotation, but lacks the ace that the Cubs have. I would rank those two rotations about even.   Cubs-tied for 4th with the Brewers

Bullpen

The Cubs went with Hector Rondon as their closer last year, and he saved 29 games. Pedro Strop and Neil Ramirez were his primary set up relievers, and Jason Motte joins the team as a free agent. The Pirates have the most bullpen depth in the division, and have a good lefty/righty late inning combo with Tony Watson and Mark Melancon. The Reds are lacking bullpen depth, but have the division's best closer, Aroldis Chapman. Trevor Rosenthal had an up and down season for the Cardinals last year, but they also have good depth. Milwaukee is still working on their bullpen, with Jonathon Broxton and Jim Henderson being their internal closing options right now. There are talks of bringing back Francisco Rodriguez or trading for Jonathon Papelbon. Bullpens are usually one of the last things that teams figure out. Relievers can be inconsistent from year to year. The Cubs look to have more depth than in the past, but lack a shut down reliever like Chapman.


While the Cubs should be excited about their future, playoff and World Series talk is premature. I wouldn't expect the Back to the Future prediction about the Cubs winning the 2015 World Series to happen. It is unrealistic to think that all of their rookie stars are going to break out this year. This was a team 12th in runs scored last year, and 13th in runs allowed. The NL Central is a tough division with four other quality teams in it. Despite the optimism by Maddon and Rizzo, this team is likely at least a year away from serious playoff contention.