Sunday, October 20, 2013

Cardinals Face Red Sox in the World Series


            Carlos Beltran Celebrates his first trip to the World Series

The Cardinals have clinched their 4th National League pennant in the last decade with last Friday's NLCS clinching win against the Dodgers. Rookie pitcher Michael Wacha won two games against the Dodgers and earned the NLCS MVP for his dominant performance. Carlos Beltran made several big plays with his bat and glove to help his team make their 19th World Series appearance. They will face the Boston Red Sox, who went from worst to first this season, finishing tied with the Cardinals for the best record in baseball. This marks the first time since 1999 where both leagues top records advanced to the World Series. This will be the Red Sox's 12th appearance in the World Series. It will be a rematch of the 2004 World Series, in which Boston broke their 86 year title less drought. These two teams also met in 1946 and 1967, when the Cardinals defeated Boston in 7 games both times.

While these two teams met in the 2004 World Series, only David Ortiz and Yadier Molina remain. The Red Sox also won the 2007 World Series, but only Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jon Lester remain from that club. The Cardinals won the 2006 and 2011 World Series. Only Molina, Adam Wainwright, and the injured Chris Carpenter remain from that club. This is also a vastly different Cardinals team than the 2011 version. On the active roster, only 8 players remain from the 2011 World Series roster. Wainwright was injured that season and the team still has 6 other players from that team who are injured or not on the roster this year. Both teams are looking for their third championship of the 21st century. The Cardinals are seeking their 12th title and the Red Sox are seeking their 8th title. The Cardinals have relied on rookies this season, and the Red Sox signed a bunch of veterans to rebound this year. Here's a position by position comparison.

Catcher

 Molina is the best catcher in baseball and a 6 time Gold Glove winner. Boston was third in the AL with 123 steals this year and will test Molina. Jacoby Ellsbury led the AL with 52 steals and it will be a showdown between a great base stealer and a great arm behind the plate. Yadi is also a force with the bat and drove in a career high 82 runs this season. Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit 14 homers and 40 doubles this year. Salty is a solid catcher, but clearly inferior to Yadi

Advantage: Cards

First Baseman

Matt Adams has filled in for Allen Craig since Craig sprained his ankle in early September. Craig led the team with 97 RBI's and had the best RISP in the league. Still, St. Louis hasn't had much of a dropoff with Adams. Adams has tremendous power and hit 17 homers in around 300 at bats. The Red Sox added former Rangers catcher Mike Napoli to be their first baseman in the offseason and he had a good year for them. If Craig was healthy, this would be an advantage for the Redbirds, but I'll give the Sox a slight advantage with Napoli over Craig. David Ortiz could possibly play some first base in games at Busch Stadium.

Advantage: Sox

Second Baseman

Both teams feature All Star second sackers in Matt Carpenter and Pedroia. Carpenter had a season worthy of MVP votes in his first year as a starter in a different position. Carp led the NL in hits, runs, and doubles this season. Pedroia has been a big part of Boston's renaissance this year. This will be Pedroia's second World Series. The 2008 MVP is a better defensive player than Carpenter, but Carp had a slightly better offensive year. I would say this is a push.

Advantage: Even

Shortstop

Former Diamondback Stephen Drew was one of Boston's many additions in the offseason. He is clearly a better offensive player than either Pete Kozma or Daniel Descalso. Mike Matheny has mixed and matched Kozma and Descalso on matchups this postseason, and it's worked so far. Kozma is the superior defensive player of the two, and better than Boston's Drew. Still, Drew's offense is much better than either Cardinals option at short.

Advantage: Sox

Third Baseman

David Freese has taken a step back this season after being a 2011 postseason hero and a 2012 All Star. Freese hasn't hit for the opposite field power like he did in year's past. He has showed some flashes of his old self, like when he hit a home run in Game 5 of the NLDS vs. the Pirates. Wil Middlebrooks had a sophomore slump this season, although he played better after Boston traded away Jose Iglesias. John Farrell started rookie Xander Boegarts in the last game of the ALCS after he delivered in other opportunities. He may go with Boegarts more than the struggling Middlebrooks in the World Series. I'm going with a slight edge for St. Louis on this since this is Freese's time of year.

Advantage: Cards

Left Fielder

Matt Holliday turned it on big time in the second half this season after a slow start. Holliday has a propensity for grounding into double plays and occasional lapses on defense, but he does put up the offensive numbers every year. The Red Sox have been going with a lefty/righty platoon of Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava this year. It's been solid for them this year.

Advantage: Cards

Center Fielder

Jon Jay has had a up and down season this year. He was dropped down from the leadoff spot early in the year, but went on a hot streak late in the year. Jay's defense has been one of his strengths in the past, but he was uncharacteristically shaky during the NLCS. Matheny used Shane Robinson in Game 6 when Clayton Kershaw pitched and may do the same when Lester starts. Robinson had a pinch hit home run in Game 4. Ellsbury had a rebound season from an injury plagued 2012. Ellsbury steals a lot of bases, plays good defense, and is a solid hitter.

Advantage: Sox

Right Fielder

It took Beltran 15 seasons, but he will finally make the World Series this year. The Cardinals denied him in 2004 as an Astro, in 2006 as a Met, and fell a game short his first season with St. Louis in 2012. Beltran made his 8th All Star team this year and led the Redbirds with 24 homers this year. Beltran tied Babe Ruth on the all-time postseason home run list this year. The Red Sox signed former Phillie Shane Victorino this past offseason. The Flyin' Hawii'an answered critics who thought he was washed up with a vintage season. Having Victorino in right field is like having two center fielders for the Red Sox.

Advantage: Cards

DH/Bench

David Ortiz is the only remaining member of the 2004 curse breaking Red Sox. He's not a 40 or 50 homer guy anymore, but at age 37 had a big year. Big Papi hit .309 with 30 homers and 103 ribbies this year. Boston also will have Middlebrooks, David Ross, Mike Carp, Quentin Berry, an either Gomes or Nava on their bench. Craig has said he will be able to play in the World Series. He will likely DH in Fenway Park and be available for pinch hitting in NL games. It's doubtful he will play any games in the field. Craig's return likely means that either Adron Chambers or Kolten Wong are taken off the roster. Both are speedy players, and the team will need to decide if it needs an extra outfielder or infielder. Tony Cruz, Descalso, and Robinson will also be on the Redbirds bench. I think that Boston has the edge here.

Advantage: Sox

Starting Pitching

Adam Wainwright and Wacha have been a powerful combo this postseason. They have won 4 games for the team so far in the playoffs. Wainwright won 19 games in the regular season this year and will likely be matched up against Red Sox lefty Jon Lester in Game 1. In Game 2, rookie phenom Wacha will likely be matched up against former Angel John Lackey. I would imagine that Joe Kelly would start Game 3 at home against Clay Buchholz. Buchholz was 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA this year, but was limited to 16 starts due to injury. Matheny has went with Lance Lynn over Shelby Miller as the team's fourth starter and I would assume that Lynn would start Game 4 against former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy.

Even if Miller doesn't start, I would expect him to have a bigger role in the World Series. He was arguably the Cards second best starter in the regular season, and his workload and struggles in the second half might have something to do with Miller being limited to one relief appearance against Pittsburgh. Matheny has said that Miller didn't matchup well against Pittsburgh or Los Angeles. It's quite a luxury to have a 15 game winner waiting in the wings if needed.

Advantage: Cards

Relief Pitching

These two teams approach to building the bullpen were drastically different. The Cards have relied on mostly youngsters, while the Sox have relied on veterans. Still, both teams have had to adjust at closer due to injury and poor performance. Going into the year, Jason Motte was expected to be the Cardinals closer. He was shelved before the season started and had season ending Tommy John surgery in May. Mitchell Boggs filled in, but was ineffective at the closing role and eventually traded. Edward Mujica took over and made the All Star team. However, Mujica faded late in the season and was replaced by hard throwing Trevor Rosenthal. Boston opened the season with Joel Hanrahan as closer, and later Andrew Bailey after Hanrahan was injured. Both pitchers were former All Stars, but 38 year old Koji Uehara moved into the role and thrived. Uehara finished the season with 21 saves, a 1.09 ERA, and a 0.57 WHIP.

Besides Rosenthal, the Cardinals have relied on rookies Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez, and lefty Kevin Siegrist in the late innings. Martinez looks like a younger Pedro Martinez and was really impressive in the NLCS. Randy Choate does a good job getting lefties out and the team also has Tyler Lyons and Sam Freeman should it decide it needs another lefty. Mujica and John Axford are also on the roster, but shouldn't be used in tight games. Boston moved starter Ryan Dempster to the bullpen for the postseason. Dempster joins righties Brandon Workman, Junichi Tazawa, Uehara, lefties Felix Doubront, Franklin Morales, and Craig Breslow in the bullpen. Breslow has had a terrific postseason.

Advantage: Cards

Manager/Coaching/Intangitables

Mike Matheny is in the World Series in only his second season as manager. He has made the playoffs in his first two seasons after taking over for Tony La Russa. John Farrell came over from Toronto to replace Bobby Valentine last offseason. Farrell was the Sox pitching coach under Terry Francona and returned the club to the postseason. Both teams are well coached and have plenty of players with a winning background. So far, both managers moves have worked out for the two teams.

Advantage: Cards

Prediction: Cardinals in 6













Friday, October 11, 2013

Playoffs Down to the Final Four



                 Molina and Wainwright Celebrate Division Series Clincher


This weekend, the Championship Series will begin in both leagues. The Dodgers will head to St. Louis Friday to kick off the NLCS, and the Tigers will head to Boston for the ALCS starting Saturday. The Dodgers dispatched the Braves in 4 games as did the Red Sox with the Rays, but it took the Tigers and Cardinals five games to knock off the Athletics and Pirates. Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright pitched gems to propel their teams to victory. This was the second year in a row that the Tigers defeated Oakland in Game 5 with Verlander winning. The Cardinals have also won three straight Game 5 Division Series clinchers. I'll preview both series below.


American League Championship Series

Tigers vs. Red Sox

Previous Playoff Meetings: None
Season Record: Det 4, Bos 3

I think it is pretty clear that the Tigers and the Red Sox were the two best teams in the American League this year. Nothing against the A's or Rays, but neither team was as talented or deep as Detroit or Boston. Oakland came close to upsetting the Tigers, but lost the final two games after being up 2-1. The Tigers have one of the best starting pitching staffs in the game and have a strong offense led by Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Torii Hunter. The Tigers are looking for another shot at a championship after being swept in last year's World Series. One concern for Detroit is their bullpen, which is the weakest of any of the four teams left playing.

Boston went worst to first this season after a couple of disappointing and embarrassing seasons. John Farrell became the third manager in the last three years after he replaced the unpopular Bobby Valentine. There is no more talk of chicken and beer, nor is there any distractions about their manager. The team added veterans Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Koji Uehara, and Ryan Dempster in the offseason. Jacoby Ellsbury and John Lackey had big seasons after being hurt last year. Team fixtures like Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and Jon Lester also had good years; helping the Red Sox turn it around this year. They finished the year with the American League's best record and led the league in runs scored.

There should be some good pitching matchups in this series. Game 1 will feature Lester vs. Anibal Sanchez(who led the AL in ERA this year). Game 2 will pit All Stars Max Scherzer and Clay Buchholz.  In Game 3, Lackey will face Verlander, and in Game 4 Doug Fister will face Jake Peavy.
It's tough to say who will win this series. Boston has homefield advantage, but lost the season series to Detroit. Cabrera has been banged up, and it's affected his hitting. The Cardinals have played a World Series against both teams in the last 10 years.

National League Championship Series

Dodgers vs. Cardinals

Previous Playoff Matchups: 1985, 2004, 2009
Season Record: LA 4, StL 3

The philosophy of building a team is vastly different with the Dodgers and Cardinals. The Cardinals have relied on home grown talent and have 10 rookies on their postseason roster. The Dodgers have acquired big name stars such as Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Carl Crawford. Dodgers ownership and team president Magic Johnson are committed to winning a championship. So is Bill DeWitt, John Mozeliak, and the Redbirds brass. Mozeliak has prioritized the farm system and player development since he became the team's GM. This philosophy has allowed the Cardinals to continue winning after deciding not to match the Angels offer to Albert Pujols.

The Cardinals led the National League in runs scored, despite not hitting a lot of home runs and not stealing many bases. Clutch hitting, hitting good with runners in scoring position, and getting on base has been the recipe for run scoring for St. Louis. Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter personifies this approach. He had one of the best seasons ever by a Cardinals leadoff hitter, and broke Stan Musial's single season record for doubles by a left handed hitter. The Cardinals also had big years from Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, and Allen Craig. Craig is still out for the NLCS, although he could be available for a pinch hitting and DH role if the Cardinals advance to the World Series. Matt Adams has filled in for Craig, and the Cardinals haven't missed a beat. Adams hit a monster home run in Game 5 of the Division Series off Mark Melancon.

The Dodgers started off very slow this year, and it nearly cost Don Mattingly his job. They were in last place entering June, but caught fire when summer hit. At one point, the Dodgers won 42 out of 50 games. Rookie phenom Yasiel Puig played a big role in this surge, filling in for injured outfielders Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Kemp will miss the entire postseason, while Ethier has been limited to a pinch hitting role. Dodgers management also went out and acquired Ricky Nolasco, Brian Wilson, and Michael Young for the playoff push. Pitching was also key to the Dodgers success. Clayton Kershaw will likely win his second Cy Young Award this year after finishing the season with a 1.83 ERA.

Mattingly has announced that Greinke will start Game 1, Kershaw will start Game 2, and Hyun-Jin Ryu Game 3. A starter hasn't been announced for Game 4, but it could be Nolasco, who has struggled lately. The Cardinals will counter with Joe Kelly in Game 1, Michael Wacha in Game 2, Adam Wainwright in Game 3, and Shelby Miller in Game 4. Miller has taken Lance Lynn's spot after Lynn imploded in Game 2 of the NLDS. Wacha was particularly impressive in Game 4, throwing 7 plus innings of no hit ball. Wacha has been a fast riser, starting postseason games a year after he was drafted. Mozeliak drafted Wacha in the first round with the Angels pick they forfeited for signing Pujols.

Wainwright and Kershaw both won 2 games during the Division Series, and both pitchers will have a big say in who wins the NLCS. The Cardinals actually beat Kershaw twice during the regular season. This should be an exciting matchup against two teams both seeking their 19th National League pennant. I think the Redbirds have a good chance in winning this series and have homefield advantage. They'll need big performances from their starting pitchers to win because the Dodgers have two of the best pitchers in the league going for them.






Sunday, September 29, 2013

Playoff Preview






The MLB postseason will start on Tuesday with the Reds going to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates in the NL wild card game. In the American League, the Indians have clinched the first wild card spot. The second spot has yet to be decided. The Rays and Rangers finished with identical 91-71 records and will play a pre-playoff tiebreaker in Texas to break the tie. The Division Series starts on Thursday. The League Championship Series will open up 2 weeks from now, and the World Series will start on Wednesday, October 23rd in the city of the American League champion.

NL Wild Card Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Season Record: Pit 11, Cin 8
Previous Playoff Meetings: 1970, 1972, 1975, 1979, 1990

The Pirates will be appearing in their first postseason in 21 years Tuesday. Pittsburgh hopes that it isn't a one and done. Andrew McCutchen had a MVP type season, and new additions like Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, and Marlon Byrd have helped with the team's improvement this year. The Reds had big years from Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Shin Soo Choo. Liriano will take the start for Pittsburgh, and the lefty has given the Reds fits this year. Rookie Gerrit Cole will back him up if Liriano falters. Mat Latos has been the Reds ace this year, but is dealing with injuries right now. Dusty Baker has announced that Johnny Cueto will tow the rubber for Cincinnati Tuesday. Should be an interesting NL Central battle in the wild card game.

AL Wild Card Game: Tampa Bay/Texas at Cleveland

Season Record: Cle 4, TB 2/ Cle 5, Tex 1
Previous Playoff Matchups: None for either potential matchup

Monday, the Rays and Rangers will play a tiebreaker in Texas to see who will advance to the wild card game. The Rangers knocked the Rays out of the playoffs in 2010 and 2011. Nelson Cruz has been activated for Game 163 after serving his Biogenesis suspension. Texas will start rookie lefty Martin Perez and Tampa Bay will counter with 2012 Cy Young Award winner David Price. Yu Darvish started on Sunday's crucial game for Texas and will be unavailable until the Division Series. If Texas advances to the wild card game, Derek Holland or Matt Garza will likely start it. For Tampa Bay, Alex Cobb would likely start the wild card game if they advance.

The Indians made a dramatic turnaround this year under new manager Terry Francona. This will be Cleveland's first playoff appearance since 2007. They lost 96 games last year and improved their record 26 games this year. Scott Kazmir resurrected his career this season and would likely start the wild card game. Justin Masterson wore down late in the year, but will pitch out of the bullpen in the postseason. Masterson could be a Tim Lincecum type weapon for Cleveland. The Indians won the season series vs. both the Rays and Rangers. Cleveland is also riding a 10 game winning streak coming into the playoffs, so they are hot right now.

National League Division Series

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati vs. St. Louis

Season Record: Pit 10, StL 9, StL 11, Cin 8
Previous Playoff Matchups: None for either matchup

For the first time ever, 3 teams from the same division made the postseason. The Cardinals will host the winner of Tuesday's Pirates/Reds game. The Cardinals have played deep into the postseason the last two years and won the 2011 World Series. Not bad for a team that went in as a wild card both times. This year, the Cardinals won the NL Central title for the first time since 2009. The Redbirds have had major contributions from rookie this year, especially from Matt Adams, Shelby Miller, Kevin Siegrist, Trevor Rosenthal, and Michael Wacha. Allen Craig is not available for the Division Series, but should be back if the Cardinals advance further. However, the Cardinals haven't missed a beat with Adams filling in. Adams has hit 17 home runs in limited playing time, 3rd most on the Cardinals.

Liriano has dominated the Cardinals this year, beating them 3 times. However, Liriano is starting the wild card game and will only start 1 time in the NLDS. AJ Burnett has also pitched well against the Cardinals. The Reds would likely open up with Homer Bailey since Cueto starts the wild card game and Latos is hurt. Adam Wainwright will start the opener for St. Louis, with Miller, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, and possibly Wacha in the conversation for the rest of the starting spots. Edward Mujica has struggled in September and it looks like flamethrowing Rosenthal will be the closer in the postseason.

Los Angeles vs. Atlanta

Season Series: Atl 5, LAD 2
Previous Playoff Matchups: 1996

The Dodgers will travel to Atlanta to play the Braves this Thursday. The Braves won the season series, but they played before the Dodgers caught fire. The Dodgers will be without Matt Kemp for the entire postseason and Andre Ethier is also banged up. They still have plenty of offense with Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Yasiel Puig. That been said, the Dodgers strength is pitching. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu will be tough to beat in a short series.

The Braves hit for a lot of power, but led the NL in strikeouts this year. BJ Upton and Dan Uggla both batted under the Mendoza line this year. They will likely open the series with Kris Medlen starting. Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, Freddy Garcia, and Julio Teheran will vie for the other spots. Closer Craig Kimbrel had another dominant year for Atlanta and is one of the best in the business. The Braves are a way better team at home than the road, so it's a good thing they have home field advantage.

American League Division Series

Texas/Tampa Bay/Cleveland vs. Boston

Season Series: Tex 4, Bos 2/Bos 12, TB 7/Bos 6, Cle 1
Previous Playoff Matchups: Tex/Bos-none, TB/Bos-2008, Cle/Bos-1995, 1998, 1999, 2007

Boston can't plan for Friday's opponent just quite yet. It could be one of three different teams, Texas, Tampa Bay, or Cleveland. The Red Sox finished with the best record in the American League this season after two straight disappointing years. The Sox re-tooled last offseason, adding Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, and Ryan Dempster. 2007 championship holdovers Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and Jon Lester had big years this season for Boston. New manager John Farrell has done a great job this season, with Boston going worst to first in the AL East.

The most intriguing matchup for the Red Sox would be facing former manager Francona's Indians ballclub. Francona was let go as manager after the 2011 collapse and replaced by Bobby Valentine, who was disastrous in his one season as manager. Tampa Bay and Texas would have burned their best starters by the opening game of the Division Series, since they are playing a tiebreaker Monday. The Sox will have an advantage in being able to set up their ALDS rotation with their best starters. Farrell hasn't decided if Lester, Clay Buchholz, or Jake Peavy will start Game 1. Boston had suffered numerous injuries in the bullpen with former All Stars Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey going down for the season. Luckily, Koji Uehara has filled to void and has been dominant in the closer role.

Detroit vs. Oakland

Season Series: Oak 4, Det 3
Previous Playoff Matchups: 1972, 2006, 2012

Bob Melvin and the Athletics proved they were not a fluke this year, winning their second straight AL West title. Oakland was able to beat out their big spending division rivals, like the Angels and Rangers. The A's will have homefield advantage in the first round, but will have to play the team that eliminated them last season, Detroit. The Tigers will be tough to beat and are favored in this series. Still, the A's are a hard team to play despite the lack of star power. Josh Donaldson, Coco Crisp, Brandon Moss, and Jed Lowrie had big years for Oakland this year, and their pitching has been good.

The Tigers have arguably the best rotation of all playoff teams, although the Dodgers might argue about that. Detroit will open with 21 game winner Max Scherzer, followed by Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister. Joaquin Benoit settled in as Detroit's closer after early season uncertainty in the bullpen. Oakland will counter with 40 year old Bartolo Colon, followed by youngsters like Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, and AJ Griffin. The A's have one of the league's best bullpens with Grant Balfour, Ryan Cook, and Sean Doolittle. Last year, these two teams went the full five games in the ALDS; and this year's matchup should be hard fought as well.





















Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Predicting the Award Winners



                           Clayton Kershaw: Likely to Win 2nd CYA in 3 Years

The season is winding down in it's final week, and the playoffs will start next week. There should be some interesting discussions on who wins the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. The awards won't be announced until after the season in November, but the writers vote on them at the season's end before the playoffs. Today, I will predict who will win these awards and how I would vote.

AL Manager of the Year

1) John Farrell, Red Sox
2) Terry Francona, Indians
3) Bob Melvin, Athletics

The Red Sox were a mess last year in Bobby Valentine's only season as manager and finished in last place. The year before, they collapsed in the final week and missed the postseason, leading to Francona's demise. Boston hired Farrell to be their 3rd manager in 3 years and overhauled their roster. It worked out and the Sox have the best record in the AL. Francona took over the Tribe this year and has the team in position to make the final wild card spot. The A's weren't expected to repeat last year's success, but have won the AL West again with one of the league's lowest payrolls. The Yankees Joe Girardi might get some votes for keeping them in contention despite numerous injuries.

NL Manager of the Year

1) Clint Hurdle, Pirates
2) Don Mattingly, Dodgers
3) Mike Matheny, Cardinals

After two straight second half collapses, the Pirates have changed their luck this year. Hurdle has led the club to their first postseason appearance since 1992. Mattingly's job was thought to be in danger in May, but the Dodgers went on a tear this summer. At one point, they went 42-8 in a 50 game stretch. The Cardinals have played 20 rookies this season, but have the lead in the NL Central.

AL Comeback Player of the Year

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Even with Rivera retiring after the season, he still had a deserved All Star selection this year. He fully came back from tearing his ACL in Kansas City last season. The Yankees will miss the postseason this year, but at least Rivera was able to go out in his own terms.

NL Comeback Player of the Year

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Last season, Tulo was limited to 47 games due to injury. He's missed some time this year, but has played in 122 games so far and put up his usual big numbers. He's batting .315 with 25 home runs, and playing terrific defense.

AL Rookie of the Year

1) Wil Myers, Rays
2) Chris Archer, Rays
3) Martin Perez, Rangers
4) Leonys Martin, Rangers
5) Matt Dominguez, Astros

Myers was the big piece in the James Shields trade with the Royals last year. The trade helped both teams and Myers has been a big bat for Tampa Bay. Archer has also been a solid starter for the Rays. Lefty starter Perez and center fielder Martin have helped out the Rangers quite a bit this year.

NL Rookie of the Year

1) Jose Fernandez, Marlins
2) Shelby Miller, Cardinals
3) Yasiel Puig, Dodgers
4) Julio Teheran, Braves
5) Hyun-Ji Ryu, Dodgers

The NL rookie class is deep, and I left out the Pirates Jeff Locke and Gerrit Cole, the Diamondbacks AJ Pollock and Didi Gregorius, the Cardinals Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, and Michael Wacha, and the Padres Jedd Gyorko. Matt Harvey, Patrick Corbin, and Jean Segura just missed being rookies this year. I think the most impressive rookie is the Marlins Jose Fernandez. Fernandez went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA and 187 strikeouts on a 100 loss team.

AL Cy Young Award

1) Max Scherzer, Tigers
2) Yu Darvish, Rangers
3) Bartolo Colon, Athletics
4) Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
5) Felix Hernandez, Mariners

Scherzer has had a career year with Detroit and is the AL's only 20 game winner. He also is second in strikeouts and first in WHIP. Sanchez has also had a great season, with Justin Verlander having a relative off year(although most pitchers would love to have that kind of off-year). 40 year old Colon has been the A's ace this year. Chris Sale, Hisashi Iwakuma, and CJ Wilson will probably also get a few votes.

NL Cy Young Award

1) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2) Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
3) Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
4) Cliff Lee, Phillies
5) Jose Fernandez, Marlins

Kershaw has had a dominant season, leading the NL in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Kershaw has a 1.88 ERA. There were a lot of good pitching performances in the NL this year. Wainwright and Zimmermann should get some 2nd and 3rd place votes, but I think Kershaw will be a unaminous winner. Other pitchers who will get votes should include Madison Bumgarner, Patrick Corbin, Zack Greinke, Matt Harvey, and Francisco Liriano.

AL MVP

1) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
2) Chris Davis, Orioles
3) Mike Trout, Angels
4) Robinson Cano, Yankees
5) Adrian Beltre, Rangers
6) Josh Donaldson, Athletics
7) Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
8) Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
9) Manny Machado, Orioles
10) Evan Longoria, Rays

Cabrera won't win the Triple Crown again this year, but he should win the MVP. The sabermetrics crowd was upset that Cabrera beat out Trout last year, and might be upset again this year. Trout does have the advantage in defense and baserunning, but not hitting. Plus, Trout's Angels are below .500 at a distant third place this season. Davis became the first player since Jose Bautista in 2010 to hit 50 home runs in a season this year. I think Cano deserves some votes for keeping the Yankees in contention while surrounded by castoffs this year.

NL MVP

1) Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
2) Yadier Molina, Cardinals
3) Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
5) Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
6) Freddie Freeman, Braves
7) Joey Votto, Reds
8) Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
9) Jayson Werth, Nationals
10) Shin-Soo Choo, Reds

I think McCutchen is the obvious pick for NL MVP. He is a five tool player who's having a terrific season, and the Pirates wouldn't sniff the playoffs without him. The Cardinals have Molina, Carpenter, and Allen Craig as possible candidates, but I left Craig off because of time missed. Goldschmidt has had a monster year, leading the NL in home runs and RBI's. There are a few other players who will receive votes that I didn't mention, including Carlos Gomez, Chris Johnson, and Adrian Gonzalez.












Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Rivera, Helton Winding Down Careers

                 

 A couple of big names will be playing their final games this September, and I'm not talking about Mark Kotsay(who recently announced his retirement). Mariano Rivera had said before the season that this year will be his last. The Yankees are still fighting for a wild card spot, so Rivera may be able to stretch it out until October. Todd Helton announced that he is going to retire at the end of the season at age 40. The Rockies won't be playing in October, so Helton's career will end in a couple of weeks. Both Rivera and Helton have spent their entire careers with the same organization, a rarity in today's game. Rivera is still on top of his game, making the All Star team this year, deservedly. Joe Girardi has tried to get him to come back one more year, but the 43 year old Rivera said his mind is made up about retiring.

Rivera will certainly be a Hall of Famer come 2019. There is no doubt that Rivera is the best closer of all time. He has surpassed great closers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Dennis Eckersley, and Trevor Hoffman. Mo's cutter broke many of bats throughout the years and has been his signature pitch like the split finger was Sutter's and the change up was Hoffman's. A lot of closers in today's game only have a run of dominance for 3-4 seasons, but Rivera has been dominant every season. He holds the all time saves lead with 651, which is almost twice as much as the next active player, Joe Nathan. Rivera has made 13 All Star teams in 19 seasons with the Yankees. He never won a Cy Young Award, but received votes in 6 different seasons.

In the postseason, Rivera was even better. His regular season ERA and WHIP was 2.22 and 1.00, while his postseason ERA and WHIP was 0.70 and 0.76. That is through 141 innings pitched in 96 games during 16 different postseasons. Mo is 8-1 and has only blown 4 postseason saves. Rivera has a MLB record 42 saves, which matches his uniform number. When the Sandman enters, the game is almost always over. With his retirement at season's end, Rivera will be the last player in MLB history to wear #42; which was retired league wide in 1997 to honor Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier.

The Yankees have won 5 World Series championships during Rivera's tenure with the club. In 1996, he was the set up man to then closer John Wetteland. Wetteland left as a free agent after that season, and Joe Torre put Mo in as closer. He would soon make Yankee fans forget about Wetteland. In fact, Rivera was one of the most important players(if, not the most important) of the Yankees dynasty during 1996-2001. Rivera is one of the last links of that dynasty still with New York. With Rivera retiring, Derek Jeter's status uncertain because of injury, and Andy Pettitte's career in his twilight, the Yankees will soon enter a new era.

Todd Helton played baseball and football at the University of Tennessee, and was once Peyton Manning's backup quarterback. He made his debut with the Rockies in 1997, and became the team's regular first baseman in 1998 after Andres Gallaraga left as a free agent. He would finish 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 1998. Helton has been on the Rockies for so long that he was once teammates with manager Walt Weiss. The Rockies have never retired a number, but Helton's #17 will likely be their first. Helton played his first 10 seasons without making the postseason, but in 2007 he finally got a taste of it. The Rockies caught fire that September and catapulted themselves to the World Series, which they would lose to Boston. He returned to the postseason in 2009, but the Rockies lost in the Division Series.

Helton had his finest season in 2000, when he won the batting title with a .372 average. It would be the first of five consecutive All Star appearances. Helton was also a very good defensive player, winning 3 Gold Gloves. He ranked among the best first baseman in the league for a ten year period, but Helton would never finish higher than fifth in MVP voting. Some people say that Helton padded his numbers in the pre-humidor Coors Field. It's true that his power numbers went down after the humidor and he hasn't hit over 20 home runs since 2005. However, Helton was always a good hitter throughout his career, as his .317 career average and .415 career OBP can attest.

At age 40, Helton's skills aren't what they used to be and haven't in several seasons. In his prime, he was a similar hitter to Joey Votto. Helton finished in the top ten in batting average in the NL 9 different occasions. He has compiled over 2,500 hits, 367 home runs, and 1397 RBI's. Still, Helton's chances at the Hall of Fame are slim and he is a borderline candidate. That's considering the backlog of really good first baseman who haven't made it. The list includes Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, John Olerud, Keith Hernandez, Steve Garvey, and Don Mattingly. The list also includes PED users Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. Helton has had a terrific career and might be the best Rockies player ever, but will have a tough chance at making the Hall anytime soon. Maybe, a Veteran's Committee case.

Mariano Rivera's career stats; http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml

Todd Helton's career stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heltoto01.shtml










Friday, September 13, 2013

Carpenter Having One of the Best Seasons by a Card's Leadoff Hitter




Matt Carpenter has had a breakout season in his first season as a starter. Last year, in Carpenter's solid rookie campaign, he was a utilityman. Carpenter played first base, third base, left field, and right field. He even played a couple games at second base last year. The Cardinals management decided to try Carpenter out at second for the 2013 season. Jose Oquendo worked with Carpenter in the offseason and spring training to help him adapt to the second base position. Carpenter is a natural third baseman. in 2009, the Cardinals made a similar move with Skip Schumaker, moving him from the outfield to second. In spring training, Carpenter beat out Daniel Descalso to win the second base job.

Carpenter has been solid defensively, although he's not going to be in the Gold Glove conversation. He has turned out to be better defensively than Schumaker was. Carpenter has made 8 errors at second, but leads NL second baseman with 91 double plays turned. Carpenter is also 5th in the NL with 326 assists at second base, despite making 23 starts at third, with 40 games total at third. He doesn't embarrass himself on defense.

Early in the season, Jon Jay was slumping, so Mike Matheny moved Carpenter to the leadoff spot. Carpenter lacks the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, but gets on base frequently. The move worked and the Cardinals offense ignited with Carpenter at the top. The Redbirds lead the National League with 700 runs scored. Carpenter leads the NL in runs(114), hits(178), doubles(48), and in multi hit games. Carpenter is sixth in average, 8th in on base pct., and 5th in total bases. He also has 70 RBI's this season, mostly as a leadoff hitter. Only Lou Brock in 1967 and Pepper Martin in 1936 have more RBI's in a season, both having 76.

Here's a list of great leadoff seasons by a Cardinals hitters and were Carpenter ranks:

Player                  Year   AVG OBP SLG   R     H    2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB   TB
Pepper Martin      1933  .316   .387  .456  122  189  36  12    8     57    26   277
Pepper Martin      1936  .309   .373  .469  121  177  36  11   11    76    23   268
Curt Flood            1963  .302   .345  .403  112  200  34   9     5     63   17    267
Lou Brock            1967   .299  .327  .472  113  206  32  12    21   76   52    325 
Lou Brock            1970   .313  .361  .422  114  202  29   5     13   57   51    280
Lou Brock            1971   .313  .385  .425  126  200  37   7     7     61   64    272
Lou Brock            1974   .306  .368  .381  105  194  25   7     3     48   118  242
Garry Templeton 1979   .314   .331  .458  105  211  32  11    9     62   25   308
Lonnie Smith       1982   .307   .381  .434  120  182  35   8     8     69   68   257
Vince Coleman    1987   .289   .363  .358  121  180  14  10    3     43  109  223
Fernando Vina     2001   .303   .357  .418   95   191  30   8     9     56   17   264
Matt Carpenter     2013   .317  .386  .480  114  178  48    7    10   70    3    270

I probably could of put up several more of Brock's seasons, as he was the best leadoff hitter in Cardinals history. Despite the lack of stolen bases, Carpenter's 2013 season ranks up there with any season of any leadoff hitter in Cardinals history. Carpenter is not a player like Brock or Coleman. He does have the highest average of all these players in a single season. His on base pct. for this season is only behind Martin's 1933 season. Carpenter's slugging pct. out of the leadoff spot is the highest in team history. With one more double, Carpenter will tie Scott Rolen's 2004 season of 49 doubles for 10th place in team history. That's a pretty prestigious list that includes Stan Musial, Joe Medwick, Enos Slaughter, and Albert Pujols. Carpenter has already broke Pujols record of most hits at the new Busch Stadium in a season last Sunday.

I would still say that Yadier Molina is the team's MVP this season because of his all around play and his great defense at catcher. That been said, Carpenter has a solid case as the team's most important player this season. Without Carpenter being the sparkplug out of the leadoff spot, this team wouldn't be as good this year. I doubt Carpenter wins the NL MVP, but I think he will get plenty of votes this fall. He has exceeded the wildest of expectations for this season. I thought he would be pretty good as an everyday player, but I didn't expect him to be a MVP candidate. Carpenter made his first All Star team this year as well. If the Cardinals win another championship this October, Carpenter will be a big reason why.