Sunday, October 19, 2014

Wild Card World Series




World Series: Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants
Series Start: Tuesday, October 21st
Homefield Advantage: Royals
Previous Playoff Meetings: None
2014 Head to Head Record: Royals 3-0


The wild card playoff game was supposed to make it harder for a wild card team to make the World Series, but both World Series teams this year are wild card teams. Both the Royals and Giants had a tough road to the World Series, and beat quality teams to get there. Momentum is a big factor in the playoffs, and both teams have been on a roll.

Coming into the season, the Kansas City Royals had the longest playoff drought in the majors. They hadn't been back to the postseason since winning the 1985 World Series before this October. The Royals were hovering around .500 for most of the first half. There were calls for manager Ned Yost's firing, and many considered former highly rated prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer as busts. In the second half, the Royals took off, going 41-27 after the All Star break.

The Royals ending their playoff drought was a feel good story, but little was expected from them in the postseason. They came back from a 7-3 deficit against Jon Lester and the Athletics to win the Wild Card Game. Kansas City then went on to face the Angels in the Division Series. The Angels had the majors best record in the regular season, but the Royals swept them. Then, the Royals swept the Orioles in the ALCS. This young group of players now find themselves four games away from a championship, and have revitalized a organization that had been down and out for years.

The Giants lost out to the Dodgers for the NL West crown, losing two out of three in a key late season series against L.A. San Francisco limped into the playoffs, with key injuries to Michael Morse, Angel Pagan, and Matt Cain. Morse has since come back, as any Cardinal fan would know. The Giants even slipped to the second wild card spot, meaning they had to go on the road for the do or die Wild Card Game.

San Francisco's opponent for the Wild Card Game was the Pirates. Pittsburgh had proven to be a hostile environment for the Reds during last year's Wild Card Game, but not for the Giants. Madison Bumgarner shut out the Bucs, and the Giants won the game 8-0. The Giants then faced off against the Nationals, who led the NL in wins this year. After dispatching the Nats, the Giants faced off against the Cardinals in the NLCS. It was a hard fought series, but key mistakes by the Cardinals were taken advantage of by the Giants, who won the NLCS in five games.

The World Series matches up a young, up and coming team against a team full of seasoned veterans. So far, the big stage hasn't affected the Royals. They have thrived in October, and Ned Yost's team has gone 8-0. Bruce Bochy's team has been a regular participant in October baseball, and this isn't their first rodeo. This is the third World Series appearance for the Giants since 2010. San Francisco won the title in 2010 and 2012, so even numbered years have been good for the Giants lately.


                       Game 1 Starters: Madison Bumgarner and James Shields

This matchup also pits two teams with outstanding bullpens. The Royals trio of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera has drawn comparisons to the 1990 Cincinnati Reds "Nasty Boys" trio of Randy Myers, Rob Dibble, and Norm Charlton. Rookie lefthander Brandon Finnegan has made KC's bullpen even deeper. Finnegan will be the first player ever to pitch in the College World Series and the MLB World Series in the same year.

The Giants bullpen is also very good, and has plenty of postseason experience. The Giants closer in 2010 was Brian Wilson, and then Sergio Romo in 2012 after Wilson was injured. This year, Romo has been replaced as closer by Santiago Casilla. Casilla had been the set up man in 2012, when Bochy made the opposite switch. Between Casilla, Romo, lefties Jeremy Affeldt, and Javier Lopez, these four relievers have appeared in a combined 14 World Series (including this year). Yusmeiro Petit has been a big time weapon for Bochy out of the pen, especially when he pitched over six innings during a 18 inning win vs. the Nats in the Division Series. Jean Machi has had a really good year this year, and is another low cost acquistion by the Giants.

James Shields and Davis were acquired during the 2012-13 offseason, and is a major reason why the Royals are were they're at now. Shields hasn't quite lived up to his big game reputation this October, but has given Kansas City a veteran presence and a innings eater at the top of the rotation. Hard throwing rookie Yordano Ventura will likely start Game 2, with Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie likely starting Games 3 and 4. Danny Duffy had been one of the Royals best starters this season, but was limited due to injury late in the season. Duffy will continue to pitch out of the bullpen in the World Series.

The Giants will counter with Bumgarner as their Game 1 starter. Bumgarner has emerged as the Giants ace, and is a money pitcher in the postseason. Jake Peavy started his career with the Padres under Bochy, and was re-united with him after a late July trade. Peavy will start Game 2. Tim Hudson will be appearing in his first World Series of his 16 year career, and will start Game 3. Ryan Vogelsong is tabbed to start Game 4. Tim Lincecum was the Giants ace during their 2010 run, a bullpen ace during 2012, but has been invisible this postseason, not appearing in a single game so far. Lincecum pitched his second career no-hitter earlier this year. Bochy has hinted that their might be a role for Lincecum at some point during the World Series.

Offensively, neither one of these teams hit for much power. The Royals were last in the American League in home runs, hitting only 95 all year. Alex Gordon led the team with 19 homers, and only Moustakas and Salvador Perez hit over 10. Oddly enough, the Royals have won games in the postseason because of their power. The Giants are a team of sluggers compared to the Royals. They were seventh in the National League with 132 home runs this year. Buster Posey led the club with 22 bombs, and Hunter Pence had 20. Pablo Sandoval, Morse, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt all were in double digits.

Speed and defense has been the Royals blueprint to win games this year. A great bullpen helps, too. Kansas City led the American League with 153 steals this year. Jarrod Dyson led the team with 36 stolen bases, and four other players were in double digits. Perez is one of the best defensive catchers in all of baseball, and the Royals version of Yadier Molina. Hosmer won a Gold Glove at first base for his defense last year. Escobar is considered to be one of the better defensive shortstops in the game. Cain showed how big of an impact his glove can be in the ALCS this year. When Dyson replaces Nori Aoki, the Royals have the best defensive outfield in the game with Gordon, Dyson, and Cain. Gordon has won three Gold Gloves in a row.

Royals fans have been sold on Hosmer and Moustakas being the foundation of their rebuilding efforts the last few seasons. Both players have had their highs and lows since coming up in 2011. Moustakas was even sent down earlier this season, and only hit .215 this year. Hosmer has played much better, but hasn't hit for the power that was expected of him. Hosmer has had a huge postseason, batting .448 with 2 home runs at 8 RBI's. Moustakas has hit 4 home runs this postseason, which has led to the catch phrase of "the Moose is Loose." These guys may or may not live up to the hype, but Royals fans will remember their big time performances this postseason for years to come.

The Giants are experts at grinding out victories. They have scored 12 runs this postseason without getting a hit. The Giants are a team that will capitalize on errors by there opponents. The way they grind out victories in October is reminiscent of the Yankees from 1996-2001. They may not be quite as talented or deep, but they have the will to win, and find a way to get it done. With Derek Jeter retiring, Posey may find himself being one of the big icons in the game now.

Posey, Sandoval, and Pence have been the leaders for the Giants, but this team has had contributions from it's entire roster. Belt and Crawford played a big role in their 2012 championship, and are big parts in 2014. Gregor Blanco filled in for suspended All Star Melky Cabrera in 2012, and has now filled in for Pagan at center field this year. Travis Ishikawa was a back up first baseman for the 2010 championship team, and has bounced around since then. Ishikawa has returned for the stretch run this year, and found himself starting left field in Morse's absence. Ishikawa rewarded the Giants by hitting a series clinching home run in Game 5 of the NLCS. For the Giants it isn't just about the star players, it's guys like Blanco and Ishikawa who step up.

Ned Yost has used the same lineup in all 8 playoff games. It's a lineup that puts his best hitter (Gordon) batting sixth, and Perez seventh. Yost's lineup also puts light hitting speedsters like Escobar, Aoki, and Cain at the top of the lineup. This lineup may be unconventional, but it has worked very well this October. I wouldn't expect Yost to tinker with it, if it keeps working. The Giants are likely to stick with their lineup as well, although Morse will be more of a factor for the team. Morse may or may not be healthy enough to play left field, but will DH in games at Kauffman Stadium.

The Royals have won all of their 8 postseason games this year. They have been on a roll. One has to wonder if the layoff will affect them in the World Series. The Giants wrapped up their series a day after KC did, so it might not be a factor. The Giants previous playoff experience most likely won't make the layoff an issue. That been said, postseason experience is sometimes overrated. It didn't affect the Royals against the Athletics, Angels, or Orioles. Their has been other teams lacking postseason experience and well know stars that have won it all, the 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, and 2005 White Sox are examples of that. There has also been examples of teams that the long layoff hurt them, like the 2006 Tigers or 2007 Rockies. The Giants are favored by some experts to win it, but Vegas has the Royals as slight favorites. It should be an exciting World Series, and I expect the Royals to take the crown.

Prediction: Royals in 6

Rosters

Royals (89-73 regular season, 8-0 postseason)

Catcher: Salvador Perez, Eric Kratz
Infielders: Eric Hosmer, Omar Infante, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Christian Colon
Outfielders: Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki, Josh Willingham, Jarrod Dyson, Terrance Gore
Designated Hitter: Billy Butler
Starting Pitchers: James Shields, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie
Relief Pitchers: Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvim Herrera, Brandon Finnegan, Jason Frasor, Tim Collins, Danny Duffy

Giants (88-74 regular season, 8-2 postseason)

Catcher: Buster Posey, Andrew Susac
Infielders: Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Joaquin Arias, Matt Duffy
Outfielders: Travis Ishikawa, Gregor Blanco, Hunter Pence, Michael Morse, Juan Perez
Starting Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson, Ryan Vogelsong
Relief Pitchers: Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Hunter Strickland, Jean Machi, Yusmeiro Petit, Tim Lincecum








Thursday, October 9, 2014

Championship Series Preview




Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Series Start: Friday, October 10th
Homefield Advantage: Orioles
Previous Playoff Meetings: None
2014 Head to Head Record: KC 4-3

On Sunday, both the Orioles and Royals swept their Division Series against higher priced and favored teams. For both the Tigers and Angels, a combination of poor bullpen performance and lack of timely hitting did them in. Baltimore was able to beat three straight Cy Young winners, winning against Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and David Price. Kansas City's pitching was able to shut down the Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and the AL best Angel offense.

I doubt anybody predicted these two teams to be the final two teams standing in the American League this year. Prior to this season, the Royals went 29 years without making the postseason, and the Orioles had only made the playoffs once this century. Whoever wins will be breaking a long World Series drought. Baltimore hasn't made the World Series since 1983, which was Cal Ripken Jr.'s second full season. Kansas City hasn't been to the World Series since 1985, when George Brett was still playing.

Buck Showalter has been a manager for 16 seasons with 4 different teams, yet this is the first time his team advanced to the LCS. Showalter's 1995 Yankees, 1999 Diamondbacks, and 2012 Orioles all lost in the Division Series. Showalter has been fired by the Yankees, D-Backs, and Rangers, but he left all three of those teams better off than we he took over. The Yankees and D-Backs both won the World Series the season after he left, and the Rangers made the World Series twice after he left. He turned all three of those teams around, and has done the same with the Orioles. Showalter has always been thought of as a good manager, and he is now looking to finally make the World Series himself.

For Ned Yost, it has also been a long journey. Like Showalter, he has been a longtime baseball man. Yost was on Bobby Cox's coaching staff during their stretch of greatness in the 1990's. As a manager, Yost has mostly managed bad Brewers and Royals teams. Yost had never managed a team to the postseason before this year. He was fired with 12 games left to go in 2008, which the Brewers won the wild card. He took over the Royals job in 2010, and has endured some criticism. However, he has had much better luck this season with the Royals. This young Royals team is 4-0 in the 2014 playoffs, and just swept the Angels, who had the league's best regular season record.

A key for both of these teams has been their bullpens. The Royals have rode the three player combo of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera this season to shut down teams in the late innings. Herrera had a forearm flexor strain in the ALDS, but should be fine for the ALCS. Rookie lefty Brandon Finnegan has also been a major contributor this postseason. Finnegan was drafted this year, and is looking to become the first player to pitch in the College World Series and the MLB World Series in the same year.

The Orioles bullpen isn't as well known, but has been lights out in the postseason. Baltimore had a chance to acquire a name closer this past offseason (nearly signing Grant Balfour), but declined too. Tommy Hunter started off as the team's closer, but was displaced by Zack Britton early on. Britton isn't a hard thrower, but saved 37 games with a sub-2.00 ERA. Hunter and Darren O'Day have pitched well in the setup role. The Orioles made a low key, but very important move trading for lefty Andrew Miller at the deadline this July. Miller has been Showalter's go to reliever in high leverage situations.

Offensively, the Royals have a 1980's type offense that relies on speed. Jarrod Dyson, Nori Aoki, Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon are all threats on the basepaths. The team lacks power, with Gordon and Salvador Perez being their top home run hitters. The Royals rebuilding plan had Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas as centerpieces of their rebuilding effort. Both players have flashed potential, but haven't lived up to expectations. However, both players came up big in the ALDS, hitting two home runs each.

The Orioles still have a very potent offense, even with the absence of Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis. They still have a deep lineup, led by Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz. Cruz led the majors with 40 homer runs, and Baltimore hit the most as a team in the majors. The Orioles don't have a lot of patient hitters, but Nick Markakis is the most selective hitter and the team's table setter. There have been many unsung players step up for the Orioles this year, and Stephen Pearce is the perfect example of that. Pearce hit 21 homers in 339 at bats, and has filled in at first in Davis' absence. GM Dan Duquette has even said Pearce has saved the Orioles season.

Prediction: Royals in 7





San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Series Start: Saturday, October 11th
Homefield Advantage: Cardinals
Previous Playoff Meetings: 1987, 2002, 2012
2014 Head to Head Record: Giants 4-3

Unlike the American League, the National League's final two teams are postseason veterans. Since the 2010 season, the Cardinals and the Giants have dominated the National League. The Giants won the NL pennant in 2010 and 2012, while the Cardinals won it in 2011 and 2013. Out of 10 possible chances, these two teams have 7 total NLCS appearances since 2010. The 2012 NLCS was a hard fought affair in which the Giants won in 7 games. The Cardinals had a 3-1 lead, but were unable to win another game.

The Cardinals are in the NLCS for the fourth straight season, the longest streak since the Atlanta Braves from 1995-99. The road to the NLCS has been much tougher for Mike Matheny's squad than it was last year. The Redbirds offense slipped from top in the NL to ninth this year. GM John Mozeliak shook up the roster in July, most notably trading away Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston for John Lackey. Lackey was acquired for his big game reputation, and he came through in Game 3. Even more impressively, the Cardinals beat Clayton Kershaw twice in the NLDS. Rookie lefty Marco Gonzales got the win both times in relief.

The Giants road to the NLCS has also been longer than it was in 2010 and 2012. They lost the division to the Dodgers, and had to travel to Pittsburgh for the wild card game. Madison Bumgarner shut Pittsburgh out in a 8-0 win. Then the Giants had to travel to Washington to face the team with the best record in the National League. San Francisco won both games in D.C., including a 18 inning affair in Game 2. The Giants are seeking a shot to win their third World Series in the last five years.

Both of these teams find a way to get it done, and grind out victories in the postseason. Neither team was favored in their Division Series matchup, but both teams won. The Nationals and Dodgers were expected by many to make a run at the championship. Neither of those teams have the playoff experience or the will to win in October that the Giants or Cardinals do.

Two rookie second baseman have made a big impact for both of these clubs. The Giants used 8 different players at second base until settling on rookie Joe Panik. Marco Scutaro has been hurt almost all season, and was limited to only 3 games. Panik solidified second base, and hit .305 in 78 games. The lefty hitting Panik doesn't hit for much power, but is much better than the likes of Brandon Hicks or Dan Uggla were. Kolten Wong got off to a slow start, was sent to the minors, and had a stint on the disabled list before the All Star break. Despite that, Wong led NL rookies with 12 home runs this year. Wong played excellent defense and stole 20 bases this year, which was the most since Cesar Izturis stole 24 in 2008.

In 2014, the Cardinals were dead last in the NL in home runs. Only Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta hit over 20 this season. Wong and Matt Adams were the only other players in double digits. However, St. Louis hit 7 home runs against the Dodgers in the Division Series. Matt Carpenter hit 3 homers in that series, and would of been the MVP of the series if such a award existed. The 7th inning comeback in Game 1 against Kershaw set the tone for the rest of the series. The Cardinals lost Game 2, but scored the game winning runs in the 7th inning in both Games 3 and 4.

Injuries have hit the Giants hard this year. They are playing in the postseason without Scutaro, Angel Pagan, and Matt Cain. Brandon Belt missed a big chunk of the season this year as well. Belt has came back in time for the postseason, and hit the game winning home run in the Game 2 of the NLDS vs. Washington.  Michael Morse has been out with an oblique injury since August 31st, and missed the Division Series. Giants manager Bruce Bochy has said that Morse will likely be added to the NLCS roster, giving the Giants at least a power bat off the bench.

Bochy is considered to be one of the best managers when it comes to handling a pitching staff. This year, he has had to make some adjustments. GM Brian Sabean acquired Jake Peavy at the deadline, reuniting him with his former Padres manager. Peavy has filled in for Cain very well. Bochy also swapped Sergio Romo for Santiago Casilla to close out games. Bochy made the opposite move in 2012. He has also moved Tim Lincecum to the bullpen, although Lincecum has yet to appear in a playoff game. Tim Hudson was added in the offseason, and made the All Star team this year. Hudson has played 15 years on many playoff teams in Oakland and Atlanta, but this is the first time his team has advanced to the LCS.

Many in baseball were surprised when the Cardinals hired Matheny as their manager to succeed Tony La Russa, but all Matheny has done is win. The Cardinals have made the playoffs in all three seasons he's managed. Matheny has led the Cardinals deep into the playoffs, but has yet to win the World Series. This season was probably Matheny's best work, coming back and taking the division from the Brewers. The 2014 Cardinals only scored 16 more runs than it allowed, but still won 90 games.

 Matheny has given closer Trevor Rosenthal many chances to work out of jams in the regular season (perhaps, too many), with mixed results. He has shown a quicker hook in the last month, and his "gardening delay" in Game 3 worked out brilliantly. Matheny went out to the mound after Rosenthal allowed two singles, and was behind 2-0 to Juan Uribe. Carlos Martinez was warming up in the bullpen, but instead of calling for Martinez, he called for the grounds crew to work on the mound. Rosenthal was able to settle down, and got the last two outs.

The Giants have not set their NLCS rotation yet, but will likely go with Peavy in Game 1. It is also possible that they open up with Bumgarner. Matheny hinted at Lance Lynn getting the start in a potential Game 5 against LA over Adam Wainwright, but that game was not needed. There has been some concern that Wainwright has been overworked. That been said, Wainwright has been named the Game 1 starter. He will be followed by Lynn, Lackey, and Shelby Miller. Miller was left off the postseason rotation last year in favor of Michael Wacha., and was inconsistent this season. This season, Miller has got the nod in October. Miller pitched well in Game 4, and has been a different pitcher in September.

Prediction: Cardinals in 6


Thursday, October 2, 2014

Division Series Preview




Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

Start: Thursday, October 2nd
Homefield Advantage: Orioles
Previous Playoff Meetings: None
2014 Head to Head Record: 5-1 Det

On May 12th, the benches cleared after Bud Norris hit Torii Hunter with a pitch. Two hitters earlier, Ian Kinsler hit a home run, and Hunter thought he was intentionally hit. Words were exchanged, but cooler head prevailed. Over four months later, these two teams meet again in the postseason. Both teams have plenty of sluggers. Nelson Cruz led the majors with 40 home runs, and the Orioles led the AL with 212 home runs. The Tigers have plenty of sluggers as well, including Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez.

Buck Showalter has kept his team focused and winning baseball games. They have kept winning despite injuries to key players like Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. Slugging first baseman Chris Davis is in a middle of a suspension for amphetamines, which carries over throughout the Division Series. They still have plenty of firepower with Cruz, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and J.J. Hardy. Replacements like Jimmy Paredes, Caleb Joseph, and Stephen Pierce have filled in without the Orioles missing a beat. Baltimore is also a very solid defensive club, even without Machado.

The trade of Prince Fielder for Kinsler has worked out very well for the Tigers. Kinsler has greatly improved the team's infield defense. Allowing Cabrera to move from third to first, which opened up a spot for Nick Castellanos, helped as well. Rajai Davis has added an element of speed, but isn't quite the defender Austin Jackson was at center. J.D. Martinez has been the waiver wire pickup of the year, and has taken over left field for Detroit. Al Avila has recovered from concussion symptoms in time for the playoffs. The only weak spot is shortstop, which Eugenio Suarez and Andrew Romine split time at this year.

Pitching wise, the Orioles starters don't match up to Detroit's. The Tigers will run out Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Price, and Rick Porcello for their postseason rotation. That is three different Cy Young Award winners, and a guy who is having a career year in Porcello. The Orioles will counter with Chris Tillman, Wei-Yei Chen, Kevin Gausman, and a choice between three different starters. Zack Britton has done an admirable job as the Orioles closer, and Baltimore has an advantage in the bullpen. Closer Joe Nathan and other relievers have been unreliable this year. Brad Ausmus has announced that starter Anibal Sanchez will pitch out of the bullpen during the playoffs. Sanchez and trading deadline pickup Joakim Soria are potential difference makers to a weak bullpen for Detroit.

Prediction: Tigers in a tough fought series







Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels

Start: Thursday, October 2nd
Homefield Advantage: Angels
Previous Playoff Meetings: None
2014 Head to Head Record: 3-3 tie

The Royals won what might be the most exciting playoff game of the year on Tuesday night. Kansas City ran their way to a 9-8 12 inning victory. Their reward for that win will be facing off with the team who had the best record in baseball this year. The Angels went on a second half tear and cruised to the AL West crown. Albert Pujols had a rebound year, after missing the last two months last year. Mike Trout had another terrific all around year, and is the leading contender for AL MVP. This matchup will feature power vs. speed.

Kansas City will start lefty Jason Vargas in Game 1. Vargas will face his former college teammate (and last year's Angel teammate) Jered Weaver. Weaver was an 18 game winner this season. Ned Yost will start hard throwing rookie Yordano Ventura in Game 2. Ventura struggled in relief during the wild card game, but should be better in a more familiar role. Ventura will be matched up against Matt Shoemaker, who has battled an oblique injury. The Angels pitching staff has suffered a few other injuries, notably to young ace Garret Richards and lefty Tyler Skaggs. In Game 3, James Shields will get the ball against C.J. Wilson. Mike Scoiscia is going with a three man rotation for the Division Series, while Yost has yet to announce his Game 4 starter. He could go back to Vargas, or go with Danny Duffy or Jeremy Guthrie.

The Angels have one of the deepest lineups in the game. An X-factor for Los Angeles in Josh Hamilton, who has missed most of September battling various injuries. Hamilton has declared himself healthy for the postseason, and Scoiscia plans on batting him 7th Thursday. When Hamilton is right, the Angels have a trio of sluggers that no other team can match. The Halos also had strong seasons from Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, and Kole Calhoun. Besides Pujols, the Angels have two other former Cardinals in David Freese and Fernando Salas.

Power hitting is not one of the Royals strengths, but they claw and fight out victories. The Royals led the American League in stolen bases, and tied a playoff record with 7 steals in the AL wild card game. Kansas City has a lot of players like Lorenzo Cain, Nori Aoki, and Jarred Dyson, who hit for a good average and steal bases. They have a few players with some modest power, like Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Salvador Perez. While the Royals can't beat the Angels in a slugfest, they can pitch with them. Their starters are just as good, and KC has a dominant bullpen led by Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera. This should be an exciting series.

Prediction: Royals in a upset





San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals

Start: Friday, October 3rd
Homefield Advantage: Nationals
Previous Playoff Meetings: None
2014 Head to Head Record: Wash 5-2

Matt Williams led the Nationals to the National League's best record in his first season as the team's manager. Williams will face off against a team that he used to play for in the 1990's. The Giants routed the Pirates in the NL wild card game, thanks to Madison Bumgarner's brilliant outing and Brandon Crawford's grand slam. The Giants are looking to make another run deep into the postseason, while the Nats want to put 2012's disappointing Game 5 Division Series loss to rest. The Nats have been predicted by many to win their first World Series. The Giants are under the radar, but have won two World Series since 2010.

The Giants have had to overcome numerous injuries to key players such as Matt Cain, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan. Mike Morse has also missed all of September, the wild card game, and his status is uncertain for the Division Series. Brandon Belt missed time due to various injuries as well, but he is healthy just in time for October. The Giants have overcame this, trading for Jake Peavy, and bringing up Joe Panik to play second base. Bochy has also moved Tim Lincecum to the bullpen for the playoffs, and swapped Sergio Romo for Santiago Casilla in the ninth inning. San Francisco has many players who thrive in October, including Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, and Buster Posey.

The Nats do not have the postseason experience that the Giants have, but they have a deep roster with no holes. This isn't a team that relies on a star player or two, but it is one of the most talented teams in the league. Washington has had big years from Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth, and Adam LaRoche. Ryan Zimmerman missed most of the year due to injury, but is healthy for the playoffs. This leads to a question on what the Nats should do with Zimmerman, shift Rendon to second and bench Asdrubal Cabrera, shift Bryce Harper to center and bench Denard Span, or have Zimmerman come off the bench. It seems like a good problem to have for Williams.

Bruce Bochy will start Peavy in Game 1. Peavy has been terrific since being re-united with his former Padres manager. Peavy will be countered by Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg will finally get to pitch in the postseason, after controversially being shut down late in the 2012 season. Tim Hudson will face off against Jordan Zimmermann in Game 2, a battle of 2014 All Stars. In Game 3, Doug Fister will start for the Nats, while Bochy hasn't named a Game 3 starter yet. Bochy could go with Bumgarner or perhaps Ryan Vogelsong. Williams also has Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark available to pitch. The Nats/Giants series pits a team that is considered to be one of the most talented in the league against a team full of playoff veterans. It will be an interesting series.

Prediction: I'm going with the postseason experience. Giants





St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Start: Friday, October 3rd
Homefield Advantage: Dodgers
Previous Playoff Meetings: 1985, 2004, 2009, 2013
2014 Head to Head Record: LAD 4-3

The Cardinals and Dodgers will face off for the second year in a row. Last year, the Cardinals beat the Dodgers in six games in the NLCS, with two dominant performances by NLCS MVP Micheal Wacha. Wacha beat Clayton Kershaw twice in that series. Wacha will pitch out of the bullpen this year, after missing several months due to shoulder problems. Kershaw is likely to win his third Cy Young this year, and had possibly the best season of his career. Good news for both teams as Yadier Molina is fully healthy, and Hyun-Jin Ryu is likely to start Game 3 after missing some time.

The Cardinals led the NL with 783 runs scored in 2013. This season, they only scored 619 runs, which was 9th in the NL. Run scoring has been hard to come by for the Redbirds, and runs will be at a premium against the Dodgers. The Cardinals defense has been much improved with Matt Carpenter shifting from second to third, Kolten Wong taking over second, Jon Jay's improved play, and the addition of Peter Bourjos. Matt Holliday has also improved his defense, and went on his usual second half surge offensively this year. A potential X-factor for St. Louis is Randall Grichuk. Grichuk has received increased playing time at right field over Oscar Taveras. With Grichuk being a righty, and Taveras a lefty, Grichuk figures to get some playing time when Kershaw and Ryu pitch.

The Dodgers will have Matt Kemp healthy for the postseason this year. Kemp had a second half tear that sent Andre Ethier to the bench and decreased Carl Crawford's playing time. Hanley Ramirez has battled some injuries, but is healthy for the postseason. He is hoping to avoid beanballs in the Division Series. LA has also had big years from Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig. Puig was in the MVP discussion during the first half, but fell off in the second half, especially in the power department. A big difference maker for the Dodgers this year has been the emergence of Dee Gordon. Gordon has taken over the second base job, gave the Dodgers a natural leadoff hitter, and led the NL in steals this year.

In Game 1, Kershaw will match up against Adam Wainwright, in a battle of 20 game winners. Game 2 will pit Zack Greinke against Lance Lynn. Lynn has the best season of his career in 2014, and made huge strides in avoiding the bad inning. Ryu has dealt with some injuries late in the year, but is penciled in for Game 3. Ryu will face former Angel and Red Sox pitcher John Lackey, who the Cardinals hope will live up to his big game reputation. Shelby Miller has been announced as the Game 4 starter, which would be in his comfort zone at Busch Stadium. The Dodgers haven't announced a Game 4 starter, but will have a choice of either Kershaw or Dan Haren.

The bullpen has been a concern for both teams. Trevor Rosenthal saved 45 games this year, but gave Mike Matheny many scary moments this year. Rosenthal is sometimes lights out, but has been hit harder this year than in the past. Walks have been a big culprit. Matheny will have Pat Neshek, Seth Maness, Sam Freeman, and Carlos Martinez to fill in the late innings. For Don Mattingly's club, closer Kenley Jansen hasn't been the problem. It has been the middle relief and setup roles. Former All Stars Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League have been inconsistent this year. If the Cardinals can knock out the Dodgers dominant starters, then they could have a chance against the Dodgers soft spot in the bullpen.

Prediction: The Dodgers will be tough to beat and should be considered the favorites, but I'm going with a hometown pick with St. Louis














Monday, September 29, 2014

Wild Card Week






Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

Date: Tuesday, September 30th
Park: Kauffman Stadium
Previous Playoff Meetings: 1981
Head to Head Record: KC 5-2
Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester (16-11, 3.21) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.21)

This matchup features teams that are headed in opposite directions. The Royals were only two games over .500 at the All Star break, and went on a 41-27 run in the second half to rally to the playoffs. Kansas City will be making their first playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985. The Athletics had the best record in baseball at the All Star break, and then added Jon Lester at the trading deadline. Since the All Star break, the Athletics have gone 29-38, and backed into the playoffs. The Lester for Yoenis Cespedes trade hasn't worked out as planned, but that isn't Lester's fault. Lester has pitched very well in Oakland, but the trade took away the Athletics cleanup hitter, which weakened their offense. The A's have really been struggling, but one game could reverse a second half slump.

The Royals took five out of seven games against the A's this season. Unfortunately for them, their two losses came against Lester. This is the reason that Billy Beane acquired Lester was to win big games. The Royals counter with "Big Game James" in this do or die wild card game. The Royals were criticized over their trade of top prospect Wil Myers to acquire Shields two offseasons ago, but they wouldn't be here without the trade. Wade Davis also came in the same deal and along with Greg Holland and Kelvim Herrera, the Royals have arguably the best late inning bullpen combo in the majors.

Oakland finished the year ranking third in runs scored, but their offense has fallen on tough times in September. It was their only month they scored under 100 runs, and that would explain why they went 10-16 in September. Beane acquired Adam Dunn late in August to help out, and he is making his first playoff appearance in his 14 year career. Many of Oakland's best hitters like Brandon Moss, Coco Crisp, and Josh Donaldson have fallen off in the second half. Oakland relies on walks and power for offense, while the Royals were last in the AL in walks. The Royals also don't hit for much power, but they do steal a lot of bases. That has been key in scoring hard fought runs for KC. This should be an interesting matchup against two teams that play vastly different styles of baseball.

Prediction: Royals over Athletics


San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Wednesday, October 1st
Park: PNC Park
Previous Playoff Meetings: 1971
Head to Head Record: Pit 4-2
Pitching Matchup: Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98) vs. Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04)

This is the second year in a row that the Pirates will be playing in the wild card game. Last year, they ended a 21 year playoff drought. They beat the Reds in the wild card game, and lost a hard fought Division Series to the Cardinals. With a taste of October baseball, Andrew McCutchen and the Bucs are looking to go deeper into the playoffs. This year, the Pirates will face the Giants, who are no stranger to October baseball. The Giants won the World Series in 2010 and 2012. San Francisco is hoping to continue their pattern of winning the World Series every other year.

The Giants will start lefty Madison Bumgarner in the wild card matchup. At age 25, Bumgarner has already made two All Star teams and has won two World Series games. After Clayton Kershaw, Bumgarner is one of the best left handed starters in baseball. Pitching playoff baseball can be tough in Pittsburgh, and it clearly affected Johnny Cueto last year. However, Bumgarner has pitched in many big games before, and is unlikely to be affected by the crowd. The Pirates will counter with Edinson Volquez. The Pirates have revived Volquez' career after he was let go by the Padres. Volquez has had his best season since 2008, when he was an All Star.

Offensively, the Pirates were one of the better teams in the NL. Pittsburgh also steals bases well, and play solid defense. Besides McCutchen, Josh Harrison, Sterling Marte, and Neil Walker had big years for the Pirates. Russell Martin not only had a good year with the bat, his work behind the plate has really helped the team out. The Giants will be without Angel Pagan for the rest of the season due to back problems. While Pagan isn't as well known as Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence, he is an important part of the Giants. The Giants table setter set the pace, and the Giants went 29-34 without him. Pagan's absence last year was one of the biggest reasons they missed the playoffs in 2013.

Prediction: Giants over Pirates















Saturday, September 27, 2014

2014 Award Winners





Here's a look at should win the MLB awards for 2014

Gold Gloves

National League

C-Russell Martin, PIT
1B- Adrian Gonzalez, LAD
2B- Chase Utley, PHI
SS- Andrelton Simmons, ATL
3B- Todd Frazier, CIN
LF-Christian Yelich, MIA
CF-Andrew McCutchen, PIT
RF-Jason Heyward, ATL
P- Clayton Kershaw, LAD

American League

C- Salvador Perez, KC
1B- Albert Pujols, LAA
2B- Ian Kinsler, DET
SS- J.J. Hardy, BAL
3B- Josh Donaldson, OAK
LF- Alex Gordon, KC
CF- Adam Jones, BAL
RF- Nick Markakis, BAL
P- Mark Buehrle, TOR

A couple of close calls in the National League. Zack Cozart had a terrific season defensively, but not as good as Andrelton Simmons. It was also a close call at center field between Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gomez. Russell Martin has has a huge impact in Pittsburgh behind the plate, and helping the pitching staff. Since Yadier Molina missed two months, Martin will likely get the Gold Glove this year. In the American League, Salvador Perez has emerged as one of the game's best catchers. His play behind the plate has led the Royals to their first postseason in 29 years. Another Royal, Alex Gordon is a leading contender for the Gold Glove in left field. Gordon faces tough competition from Yoenis Cespedes. Ian Kinsler has made a huge difference in the Tigers defense this year. The Orioles are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, even without Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. J.J. Hardy, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis are all have good cases for a Gold Glove.

Manager of the Year

National League

1) Matt Williams, WASH
2) Clint Hurdle, PIT
3) Mike Matheny, STL

American League

1) Buck Showalter, BAL
2) Mike Scoiscia, LAA
3) Lloyd McClendon, SEA

It looked like Ron Roenicke had the NL award wrapped up a month ago, before the Brewers collapsed in September. Matt Williams has taken some criticism in his first season as the Nationals manager, but his team has the best record in the NL. The Nats were able to overcome numerous injuries, and Williams has some problems early on with Bryce Harper. The AL award also goes to a team in the Beltway. Buck Showalter has the Orioles believing they can win a championship. Baltimore has had to endure numerous injuries this season, but they have kept filling the holes. Lloyd McClendon kept the Mariners in playoff contention this year, when few thought that was possible.

Rookie of the Year

National League

1) Jacob deGrom, NYM
2) Billy Hamilton, CIN
3) Kolten Wong, STL
4) Travis d'Arnaud, NYM
5) Joe Panik, SF

American League

1) Jose Abreu, CHIWS
2) Yordano Ventura, KC
3) Dellin Betances, NYY
4) Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
5) Jake Odorizzi, TB

It was a somewhat weak rookie class in the NL. Especially compared to last season, when Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Hyun-Jin Ryu emerged. Joe Panik has filled a gaping hole at second base for the Giants, after they tried several others at second(including a washed up Dan Uggla). If Kolten Wong  had a stronger first half, he could of very well been ROY. Wong's defense has been very good at second, and has some pop in his bat. He also has stolen the most bases by a Cardinal since Cesar Izturis in 2008. Speaking of fast players, Billy Hamilton is second in the NL with 56 steals. The Mets had another losing season, but have found a battery for the future in Travis d'Arnaud and Jacob deGrom. deGrom has went 9-6 with a 2.67 ERA, striking out 144 batters in 146.1 innings. Along with Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler, the Mets have an very talented young staff. They are hoping that deGrom, Harvey, and Wheeler don't flame out like the Generation K (Jason Isringhausen, Paul Wilson, and Bill Pulsipher) from the mid-90's did.

Paul Konerko is retiring at the season's end, and the White Sox have found his replacement. Jose Abreu has had a rookie season that rivals Konerko and Frank Thomas. The Cuban defector has clubbed 35 homers, drove in 105, and leads the AL in slugging pct. Masahiro Tanaka was giving Abreu a run for the award during the first half, but missed most of the second half. Dellin Betances grew up a Yankees fan and his favorite player was Mariano Rivera. Betances 2014 campaign rivals Rivera's 1996 season as a setup man. Yordano Ventura is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, and has helped the Royals to the postseason.

Cy Young Award

National League

1) Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2) Johnny Cueto, CIN
3) Adam Wainwright, STL
4) Madison Bumgarner, SF
5) Lance Lynn, STL

American League

1) Felix Hernandez, SEA
2) Corey Kluber, CLE
3) Jon Lester, BOS/OAK
4) Chris Sale, CHIWS
5) Max Scherzer, DET

Clayton Kershaw has had a dominant season, and will certainly win his third CYA this year. That would give him as many as another great Dodgers lefty, Sandy Koufax. Kershaw leads the NL in wins, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. He has done all of that after missing most of April. Adam Wainwright has been a perennial CYA runner up, finishing third in 2009, second in 2010, and second in 2013. Wainwright's influence has rubbed off on teammate Lance Lynn, who has made major strides in 2014. Despite the Reds disappointing season, Johnny Cueto has given them a dominant performance this year. Madison Bumgarner has been the Giants ace this year, and will likely start for them in the NL wild card game. Other NL pitchers who have had strong years include Zack Greinke,  Doug Fister, and Julio Tehran.

The AL Cy Young race is much tighter than the NL. Felix Hernandez is considered to be the front runner, but Corey Kluber has given him a run for the award. Kluber has had a career year and leads the AL with 18 wins, and is second in ERA. The Athletics have fallen off since acquiring Jon Lester, but that is not his fault. Max Scherzer has had an All Star season to follow up his 2013 Cy Young, proving not to be a fluke. Lester and Scherzer figure to get paid very well this offseason in the free agent market. Chris Sale finished as the AL's ERA leader. Sale might of received more consideration if he hadn't missed time because of injury.

Most Valuable Player

National League

1) Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2) Andrew McCutchen, PIT
3) Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
4) Buster Posey, SF
5) Adam Wainwright, STL
6) Anthony Rendon, WASH
7) Matt Holliday, STL
8) Yasiel Puig, LAD
9) Todd Frazier, CIN
10) Dee Gordon, LAD

American League

1) Mike Trout, LAA
2) Victor Martinez, DET
3) Josh Donaldson, OAK
4) Nelson Cruz, BAL
5) Miguel Cabrera, DET
6) Robinson Cano, SEA
7) Jose Abreu, CHIWS
8) Jose Bautista, TOR
9) Albert Pujols, LAA
10) Jose Altuve, HOU

No pitcher has won the NL MVP since Bob Gibson in 1968. Doc Gooden in 1985 and Greg Maddux in 1995 had good cases, but were passed up by the voters. Kershaw's ERA isn't quite as low as Gibson's 1.12, but he has a solid case for the award. Giancarlo Stanton was making an MVP push before his season ended because of a pitch to the face. Stanton will still lead the league in homers despite the missed time. Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey are the most recent NL MVP winners, and both players have had big years. The Nationals don't rely on one singular player and have a deep team. That been said, Anthony Rendon has been a huge reason why Washington has the NL's best record. No one thought that Dee Gordon would be an All Star or recieve MVP votes, but he has been a big part of the Dodgers success. He has filled the hole at the leadoff spot, solidified second base, and leads the NL in stolen bases.

After losing out to Miguel Cabrera two seasons in a row, Mike Trout is likely to win his first MVP this year. His 2014 season isn't quite as good as good as the two previous seasons, but neither is Cabrera's. Trout has increased his power production this year, hitting 36 home runs. Trout also leads the AL in RBI's. While his power has increased, his average has dropped to .290, his steals to 16, and he leads the AL in strikeouts. Still, Trout is considered the game's best all around player, and he is a huge reason why the Angels have the majors best record this year.




Wednesday, September 17, 2014

AL Playoff Outlook





A look at the American League playoff contenders

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays (along with the Indians) are on the fringe of the last wild card spot. That is still better than the Yankees and Rays are, who are technically still alive. Toronto hasn't been to the postseason since Joe Carter hit a walk off home run to win the 1993 World Series. The Jays were in first earlier in the season, but have not been able to keep it going in the second half. Some of that was due to injuries to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes, but the pitching has fell off.

The back end of the rotation as well as the bullpen have been trouble spots for the team. Toronto does have the 4th best offense in the AL, which has kept them in contention. The front office didn't make any moves to bolster the pitching staff at the deadline. One has to wonder if that was a mistake for this organization.

Cleveland Indians

Things haven't gone as well for Cleveland as it did last year when Terry Francona led them to the playoffs. The Indians let Scott Kazmir, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Chris Perez go in the offseason. The plan was to rely on younger arms like Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer. Those two have had mixed results, but Corey Kluber has had a brilliant season for the Tribe. Kluber ranks among the league leaders in most of the major pitching categories and will likely finish in the top five in the Cy Young Award voting. Despite letting Perez go and the failure of John Axford, the bullpen has been pretty good for Cleveland with Cody Allen taking the closer role.

The Indians have dealt with several injuries to key players like Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. Asdrubal Cabrera was dealt in the offseason, and Jason Kipnis has had a down year. However, the Indians have had big years from Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, and Lonnie Chisenhall. Carlos Santana was terrible in the early months, but has been one of hottest hitters in the league during the second half. While the Indians most likely won't make the playoffs, they look to have back to back winning seasons for the first time since 2000-01.

Seattle Mariners

Not many people expected Seattle to contend this season. The Mariners made a big splash when they signed former Yankee Robinson Cano to a ten year contract last offseason. Still, the Mariners didn't have many other hitters to go with Cano. Cano's presence is credited on helping the Mariners improve this season. That is according to his teammates, including Kyle Seager. Seager leads the club with 23 homers and 89 RBI's, and made his first All Star team this year. At the deadline, the front office added Austin Jackson, Kendrys Morales, and Chris Denorfia to attempt to improve the offense.

The offense is better than in year's past, but Seattle is still only 10th in the AL in runs scored. The Mariners rank 11th in the AL in average and slugging, and are last in on base pct. The strength of this team is their pitching. Felix Hernandez has is a leading Cy Young candidate, and has helped the Mariners rank first in the AL in ERA. It isn't just the King Felix show in Seattle. Hisashi Iwakuma is also a pretty good pitcher, and Chris Young has had a comeback year. Rookie leftys Roenis Elias and James Paxton have rounded out a solid rotation. Fernando Rodney has had an All Star season as Seattle's closer, and the Mariners have a very good bullpen. They are looking to make their first postseason appearance since 2001.

Kansas City Royals

Speaking of teams who haven't made the playoffs in a while, the Royals have been on a league worst 29 year drought. They are in position to reach the playoffs for the first time since Bret Saberhagen and George Brett helped Kansas City win the 1985 World Series. For nearly a month, the Royals were in first place in the Central. Now, they are 1.5 games back and currently hold the second wild card spot. The Royals will have another shot at the division title when they play the Tigers this coming weekend.

The Royals win with speed, defense, and pitching. They aren't a high scoring juggernaut. The late inning trio of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera arguably gives KC the best bullpen in the league. James Shields has had a solid year, and the Royals have had strong seasons from young pitchers like Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. The Royals lead the AL in steals, but don't hit for much power. However, there are some good hitters like Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez in the lineup. With the Orioles and Angels already punching their playoff tickets, the Royals find themselves in a four way race for three spots. They are competing with the Tigers for the divison, and with the Mariners and Athletics for the wild card.

Oakland Athletics

At the All Star break, the Athletics had the best record in baseball. They also had the most All Stars in the majors with 7. Billy Beane made a big trade with the Cubs to acquire Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel in June. At the July 31st trading deadline, Beane traded one All Star for another. He traded his starting right fielder Yoenis Cespesdes to Boston for left handed starter Jon Lester. Beane has also made several other moves with an eye for the postseason.

However, the Athletics slumped after these moves. They lost the division lead to the Angels and their offense has struggled. While Lester has pitched very good for the A's, losing Cespedes has hurt Oakland. Not all the blame can be placed on the Cespedes trade. Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, and Coco Crisp have slumped in the second half. The team has had to increasingly rely on All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson for offense. Beane acquired slugging strikeout machine Adam Dunn in late August for help. Dunn is looking to make his first playoff appearance and figures to get a lot of time at DH. With two straight Division Series losses in Game 5, the A's will have to win a wild card game just to get there this year. Beane has placed his bets on Lester being the big game pitcher to win those type of games.

Detroit Tigers

The offseason trade of Prince Fielder to the Rangers for Ian Kinsler has paid off for Detroit this year. It allowed Miguel Cabrera to move from third to first, and has improved the Tigers defense. It also opened up a spot for Nick Castellanos at third base, who has had a good rookie season. Fielder has missed most of the season due to neck surgery. The team has had more than enough offense, with Victor Martinez having arguably a better year than even Cabrera. Kinsler, Torii Hunter, and J.D. Martinez have also had solid seasons. Unlike last season when he was banged up, Cabrera has heated up for the September stretch run.

The Tigers have recently regained first place after a disappointing August. Detroit made a huge splash at the deadline when they acquired David Price. It gave them three former Cy Young Award winners. Max Scherzer has had another terrific season, and will be the most sought after free agent in the offseason. The other former Cy Young Award winner, Justin Verlander has had a down year. Rick Porcello has had a career year, and has the best ERA on the staff. With Anibal Sanchez's status uncertain for the playoffs, the Tigers are hoping Verlander can re-find is old form. Joe Nathan and the bullpen has struggled mightily, but Joakim Soria could be an X-factor in the playoffs. Rookie manager Brad Ausmus is looking to accomplish something Jim Leyland couldn't do with Detroit, win a World Series.

Baltimore Orioles

Most teams would fold if their All Star catcher and third baseman went down for the year. Buck Showalter has kept this team going despite the loss of Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. On top of that, Chris Davis has been suspended for 25 games for amphetamines. Showalter hasn't let the team feel sorry for itself, and the team kept winning with replacements like Caleb Joseph, Jimmy Paredes, and Steven Pearce filling in. Pearce is actually having a much better season than Davis, who has hit below .200 after being an All Star in 2013. Despite the injuries, the Orioles still have a good lineup led by Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and J.J. Hardy.

Baltimore's front office declined to spend money on a name closer in the offseason. Instead, they gave Ubaldo Jimenez a four year deal. Jimenez has been shaky in his first year in Baltimore, but the Orioles have had a solid pitching staff. While their are no dominant aces on this staff, the Orioles have five solid starting pitchers. Chris Tillman is the Orioles best pitcher and figures to get the ball for the first game. Zack Britton took over the closer job from Tommy Hunter early in the year, and has had a terrific season. Hunter has done better as a middle reliever, and along with Darren O'Day and Andrew Miller give Baltimore a solid bullpen. Even with the injuries, the Orioles will be tough in October.

Los Angeles Angels

The trio of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton were expected to lead the Angels deep into the postseason in 2013. It didn't happen and Mike Scioscia was rumored to be on the hot seat. The team kept Scioscia, but made some moves to improve their pitching. One of the big reasons for last season's struggles was the bullpen and the back end of the rotation after Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. The Angels acquired Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago for Mark Trumbo. Then, they have completely remade their bullpen. Fernando Salas, Joe Smith, Jason Grilli, Joe Thatcher, and Huston Street have all been acquired since the end of last season. Garret Richards made a major leap forward this year, but both Richards and Skaggs have suffered season ending injuries. Luckily for the team, Matt Shoemaker has stepped up to fill a void in the rotation.

Besides the improved pitching, the Angels have scored the most runs in the AL this year. Mike Trout has had another monster season, and it is looking like he is going to win his first MVP this year. Pujols is healthy this season, and has had a rebound year. Hamilton got off to a hot start early, then missed two months due to breaking his finger sliding into a base. He hasn't been as good since coming off the DL. Hamilton is a X-factor who could be a difference maker in the postseason. The Halos have also had big years from Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Kole Calhoun, and have a lot of depth. While the Angels should certainly be considered a leading candidate to win the World Series, the winningest regular season team rarely does that. Since 2000, only the 2007 Red Sox and 2009 Yankees have accomplished that.














Monday, September 15, 2014

NL Playoff Outlook




A look at the National League playoff contenders. American League outlook coming soon.

Atlanta Braves

There are officially 11 teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, but only the Braves and Brewers have realistic chances to climb back into the playoff picture. Atlanta is a fringe candidate being 4 games out of the last wild card spot with less than two weeks left in the season. A lot of things need to go right for the Braves to make the playoffs. The team's offense has struggled this year and Atlanta is next to last in the NL in runs scored. The Braves led the NL in ERA last season, and allowed fewer runs in 2013 than anytime during Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz era. The Braves defense has still been a strong point, but they haven't been the same team this year.

The Braves let Brian McCann go in the offseason, and replaced him with Evan Gattis. While Gattis has put up good numbers after becoming a starter, the Braves bench was weakened. Dan Uggla was finally released after years of decline in Atlanta. Rookie Tommy La Stella doesn't hit for power like Uggla, but gets on base. Justin Upton has been one of the team's best hitters, but his brother B.J. has had another disappointing season. Chris Johnson has fell off quite a bit from his career year last year. Freddie Freeman has put up a good season, but the team is full of guys who strikeout a ton and get on base infrequently. Injuries have decimated the pitching staff, but they still had strong performances from Julio Tehran and Craig Kimbrel.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have spent most of the season in first place due to their 19-7 start. Since April, Milwaukee has had only one winning month. The Brew Crew were 53-43 before the All Star break, and 25-29 after. As of today, Milwaukee is within a game of the last wild card spot. The Brewers are hoping to avoid a late season collapse and at least salvage a playoff spot. My view, this was a team that was playing over its head earlier in the year. Milwaukee has plenty of good players, but they also have some flaws. With 6 remaining games against the Cardinals and Pirates, Milwaukee could still position itself into the playoffs.

The biggest weakness offensively is their horrible combination of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay at first base. Jean Segura has had a down year, but still contributes with his glove at short. Jonathon Lucroy, Carlos Gomez, and Aramis Ramirez all were All Stars this year. Ryan Braun hasn't played at an All Star level, but is still a better than average player. The offense has been fine, but it has been their pitching that has let them down. Matt Garza went down with a injury that cost him a month, and Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse weren't as good in the second half as the first half. The same could be said about Francisco Rodriguez and the team's bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The thought of the Pirates making their second postseason in a row would of been considered a pipe dream by even the biggest Pirates fans a few years ago. If the season ended today, the Pirates would have the second wild card spot. They have had another strong performance from 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, who is making another run at the award. Super utility man Josh Harrison made the All Star team this year, and is in the race for the batting title. Harrison will likely get most of his time at third base after Pedro Alvarez went down for the season due to injury. Neil Walker, Russell Martin, and Sterling Marte have had strong offensive seasons, which has led to Pittsburgh being third in the league in runs scored.

The rotation has improved in the second half after the call-ups of Vance Worley and Jeff Locke. Getting Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano healthy has helped out, too. Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage have re-habilitated Edinson Volquez in a way that would make Dave Duncan proud. After trading last year's closer Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon has been outstanding at that role. Lefty Tony Watson has moved up to the setup role and made the All Star team. With Alvarez out, the team is hoping that Gregory Polanco can step up. The team's top prospect started off hot when he was first called up, but struggled since then. He could make a big difference if he played to his hype.

San Francisco Giants

This is a team to watch out for in the postseason. The Giants have won two recent World Series championships in 2010 and 2012. Will the trend of winning a championship every other year happen again in 2014. They still have a shot at the division, but are three games back from their arch-rival Dodgers. The team has survived season ending injuries to Matt Cain and Marco Scutaro, along with several other injuries that kept key players out for significant time. Led by Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval, the Giants have kept themselves in the playoff hunt despite all of that.

Bruce Bochy has made a couple of moves with his pitching staff in the second half. He moved Sergio Romo out of the closer role and replaced him with Santiago Casilla. More recently he moved Tim Lincecum from the rotation to the bullpen. Bochy made the opposite move with Romo and Casilla in 2012 in the stretch run. He also made the same move with Lincecum during the 2012 postseason, and Lincecum thrived in that role. Madison Bumgarner has been one of the National League's best starters outside of Clayton Kershaw. Tim Hudson has been terrific in his first season in San Francisco, and Jake Peavy has been very good after being re-united with his former manager. This is a team with a lot of playoff experience, and not a team that anybody wants to play in October.

St. Louis Cardinals

At the All Star break, the Cardinals weren't sure if they were going to make the playoffs. Yadier Molina went down with a thumb injury and several of the team's starters were injured. The team's offense was struggling, and had inconsistent pitching with the exception of Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn. At the deadline, the Cardinals signed A.J. Pierzynski, traded for Justin Masterson, and traded away Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for John Lackey. Those moves have had mixed results, but the team has played much better since then.

At the end of July, the Cardinals were 14th in the NL in runs scored and allowed more runs than it had scored. That isn't good news for a playoff contender. In mid-September, the Cardinals are now 9th in runs scored and have a 3.5 game cushion in the Central division. Among the reasons for improvement have been Matt Holliday's second half surge, Kolten Wong's improvement since coming back from injury, Jon Jay's rebound year, Matt Carpenter's ability to get on base in the leadoff spot, and Jhonny Peralta's power. The pitching has also improved, and St. Louis has one of the deepest organizations in baseball. Most teams are searching for arms at this point of the year, and the Cardinals still have many options, despite the injuries. Even if Michael Wacha is not available for the postseason, they still have Miller, Marco Gonzales, and Carlos Martinez as fourth starter options behind Wainwright, Lynn, and Lackey.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers ownership has invested a lot of money on this team. They have surpassed the Yankees for having the biggest payroll in the game. There is a lot of talent on this team, but there still are some questions and potential weaknesses. No team can top the 1-2 combo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Still, the health of Hyun-Jin Ryu is the difference maker for Los Angeles. If Ryu is healthy, this team will be a lot harder to beat. If not, Dan Haren moves into the third spot, and the team might have to start someone like Roberto Hernandez or Kevin Correia. The team's bullpen has been thin outside of closer Kenley Jansen and lefty J.P. Howell. The team has invested a lot of money in Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League, and all have been disappointing. The Dodgers need at least one of these pitchers to re-find their All Star form in the postseason.

Offensively, the Dodgers have been one of the NL's best teams. With big names like Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yasiel Puig, that was expected. Still, some feel like this offense has under performed. Former All Stars Carl Crawford and Kemp aren't the players they used to be, but Andre Ethier has really fallen off this year. With a crowded outfield that also includes Scott Van Slyke and Puig, Ethier's playing time has decreased. Puig hasn't hit for much power after a very good first half. Dee Gordon and Justin Turner have given the Dodgers unexpected contributions. Gordon made the All Star team and leads the NL in stolen bases. This is a ballclub with a lot of talent when they are all healthy. Don Mattingly is expected to take this team to the World Series, and his job could be in danger if he doesn't.

Washington Nationals

This Nationals teams is one of the deepest teams in the league. There isn't an MVP candidate offensively, but this a lineup with no easy outs that has a good bench. This depth has allowed the Nats to stay in the playoff hunt despite injuries that kept Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister for significant amounts of time. Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon, Ian Desmond, and Adam LaRoche have all had solid seasons that have helped put the Nats second in the league in runs scored. Another key to the Nats success is their pitching, and they have allowed the fewest runs in the NL. First year manager Matt Williams has his team in position to win the NL East for the second time in three years.

Drew Storen has had a dominant year, and recently replaced Rafael Soriano as the team's closer. Tyler Clippard was made his second All Star team as a setup reliever. Washington has had four different starters win 10 or more games, and that doesn't include Gonzalez. Three of the team's starters have a sub-3 ERA, and that doesn't include Stephen Strasburg or Gonzalez. Jordan Zimmermann might very well be the Nats Game 1 starter, but Tanner Roark could find himself in the bullpen. Roark has had a very good year, but isn't likely to get the nod over Strasburg or Gonzalez. Strasburg was shut down late in the 2012 season and was controversially left off the postseason roster. Strasburg was disappointed in the decision, but he will have his turn this year.