Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Can George Brett fix the Royals Offense?


                              New Royals hitting coach George Brett with Eric Hosmer

Coming into the season I thought that the Royals could be a surprise team this year. The Royals improved their pitching in the offseason, trading for James Shields and Ervin Santana. Kansas City finished 10th in the American League in pitching last season. Dayton Moore's moves to acquire more pitching paid off and the Royals are 1st in the American League in ERA coming into today. Shields has a 2.81 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and Santana has a 2.99 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. Those are good numbers but their records don't indicate that. Both pitchers are victims of poor run support as Shields is 2-6 and Santana is 4-5. After starting the season off well, the Royals slumped badly in May, going 8-20.

The big problem with the Royals is their putrid offense. They are 13th in the AL with 237 runs scored. They don't hit for much power and are dead last in the AL with a .367 slugging percentage and in home runs with 31. They don't get on base enough either and are 11th with a .312 on base percentage. The Royals have 4 everyday players with a  sub-.300 OBP with Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Chris Getz, and Jeff Francouer struggling this year. The Royals didn't make any major additions on offense, hoping that some of their younger players would improve.

Dayton Moore drafted Moustakas in 2007(2nd overall) and Eric Hosmer in 2008(3rd) in the first round. A lot of expectations were put on these guys, but they haven't lived up to them yet. Moustakas has really struggled this year. He is batting only .180 for the season and leads the AL with 8 errors at third base. He's lost some playing time to Miguel Tejada, who was out of the league last year. Hosmer is batting .276 this year, but is only slugging .346. He has not developed the power that was expected. Hosmer is one of the weakest run producers at first base in all of baseball. He is in danger of becoming a hitter like James Loney or Casey Kotchman, or even worse Justin Smoak.

Brett's two biggest projects will be trying to get these players to live up to their potential. Moustakas would be thought to be in danger of being demoted to the minor leagues, but the Royals don't have many other options. This organization is concerned that two of their biggest prospects in Moore's rebuilding plan could be busts. A third prospect, second baseman Johnny Giovatella, has been in Triple A this season. This makes me wonder if the organization has a player development problem.

Two other weak spots in the lineup are Frenchy and Getz. These are two guys who are clearly not everyday players. I'm not sure if David Lough or Jarrod Dyson are improvements in right, but Francouer has been one of the worst everyday hitters in the game this year. Getz has also been a major weakness in the lineup. He splits time with Eliot Johnson, who is equally light hitting. Alcides Escobar hasn't hit as well either after hitting .295 last season. Escobar is terrific with the glove and has good speed. Brett will attempt to get Escobar hitting again.

Alex Gordon and Billy Butler were the proven commodities coming into the year, and are two of the Royals best hitters this year. Gordon has cooled off a bit after a hot start, but still is batting over .300. Gordon will likely make his first All Star appearance this year. Butler hasn't hit for as much power this year, but he does have a .381 OBP. Salvador Perez has been a good defensive catcher and leads the team with a .318 average. Lorenzo Cain has played well this year, batting .291 with 8 steals. Cain has hit leadoff on occasion, but they also put Gordon in that spot. The Royals are unsure whether they should use Gordon as a leadoff hitter or a #3 hitter. Gordon gets on base a lot, but also leads the team with a .449 OBP.

Kansas City just had a 6 game winning streak snapped against Detroit today. A six game winning streak was unthinkable in May. However, those wins were against the Twins and Astros. The Royals currently sit at 29-33 in third place, 5.5 games back. The AL Central is the weakest division in baseball, with Detroit being the only good team. Cleveland is a decent team, and the White Sox and Twins are mediocre. Manager Ned Yost is on the hot seat and the team will need to improve to keep his job. In 10 years of being a manager, he only has 2 winning seasons on mostly rebuilding teams. One of those years he was fired with 12 games left to go.

Moore took over as GM in 2006 and has yet to have a winning season under his watch. He has improved the farm system, but some of their top prospects have not produced as expected. Guys like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Luke Hochevar have not turned out to be stars. Hochevar flopped as a starter, but has excelled in the bullpen. Still, the team expected much more when they drafted him. Even Gordon had to be sent back to minors for a stint, before coming back up and excelling. Moore probably has a longer leash than Yost, but could be in trouble if this team finishes below .500 again. Not to many GMs can survive eight straight losing seasons at the helm.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

A Look Back at Recent Cardinal Drafts

SRX_MARCO_GONZALES
                                2013 1st Round Pick Marco Gonzales

The Cardinals had two first round picks for the second straight season, although they didn't have the 3 supplemental picks they had last year. They selected two left handed pitchers in the first round in Marco Gonzales(from Gonzaga) and Rob Kaminksy(high school). The Cardinals also drafted lefties Ian McKinney and Jimmy Reed in the top ten. In the second round they drafted Columbian shortstop Oscar Mercado. They also drafted two other shortstops, getting Canadian Malik Collymore and Chris Rivera. In round three they drafted right handed pitcher Mike Mayers from Ole Miss. The organization stocked up on left handed pitchers and shortstops in the top rounds this year.

When John Mozeliak took over as GM in late 2007, he made it a priority to improve the farm system and player development. The team hasn't hit on all the picks since then, but they have drafted some key contributors to this year's team in those years. The Cardinals were also rated the top farm system in the game coming into this season. Today, we'll take a look back at the Cardinals drafts under Mozeliak.

2012

The Cardinals had two first round picks plus 3 supplementary 1st round picks in this draft. The Angels gave up their first round pick and the Cardinals got a supplementary pick when they signed Albert Pujols in free agency. They used those two picks to select starting pitcher Michael Wacha and third baseman Stephen Piscotty. Wacha is already in the big leagues a little less than a year after being drafted. Piscotty is one of three third baseman chosen by the club in the first two rounds. They also drafted Patrick Wisdom in a supplementary pick for losing Octavio Dotel, and Carson Kelly in the second round. Piscotty is playing the best out of the three with Kelly having the best long term potential. Center fielder James Ramsey was the Cardinals regular first round pick and is currently in Double A Springfield. The Cardinals also drafted catcher Stephen Bean in a supplementary pick for losing Edwin Jackson.

2011

Hawiian second baseman Kolten Wong was selected in the first round of the 2011 draft. He is currently batting .326 with 4 home runs, 20 RBIs, and 8 steals in Triple A Memphis. The Cardinals selected two center fielders in the next two rounds in Charlie Tilson and CJ McElroy. Tilson has played the best out of the two. Seth Maness was the first player from this draft class to make the big leagues and has 4 wins out of the bullpen for the Cardinals this year. Left hander Ryan Sherriff has made it to Triple A and is the most promising pitcher from this draft after Maness.

2010

Third baseman Zack Cox was picked in the first round of this draft. Cox was traded to the Marlins last July for reliever Edward Mujica. Mujica(aka the Chief) has been dominant since joining the team and has taken over as closer, converting 18 out of 18 saves. Seth Blair was a supplementary pick for Mark De Rosa, but has been a dissapointment. The Cardinals selected right handed pitcher Tyrell Jenkins in a supplementary pick for Joel Pineiro. Jenkins is a big right hander with good stuff, but has not been able to harness his potential yet. He is in Single A Peoria and was rated in the top ten of the best Cardinals prospects. Reliever Jordan Swagerty was drafted in the second round, but had Tommy John surgery last year. Lefties John Gast and Tyler Lyons were both drafted in 2010, both making their debuts in the rotation for St. Louis this year. Righty Boone Whiting was promoted to Memphis this year after doing well in Springfield. Shortstop prospect Greg Garcia was also picked in 2010.

2009

Shelby Miller was drafted out of high school with the team's first pick in 2009. Miller has been dominant this year with a sub-2 ERA. Miller is a leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year this season. Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and Keith Butler were all drafted in 2009. Rosenthal can reach 100 mph on his fastball and has done a terrific job as the 8th inning setup guy this year. Middle infielder Ryan Jackson was drafted in the 5th round. He is hitting well in Triple A, but hasn't done much at the major league level. Matt Carpenter was drafted in the 13th round and has been a sparkplug at the leadoff spot this year. Matt Adams was also selected in this draft and has great power potential. This draft was one of the best in this team's recent history. Four years later, Miller, Kelly, Carpenter, Rosenthal, and Adams are playing big roles on the major league team. Where would this team be without those guys?

2008

Similar to 2010, the team selected a 1B/3B type in Brett Wallace. Wallace has never lived up to the hype in the big leagues, but was traded in a package for Matt Holliday. Shane Peterson was drafted in the second round and was also part of the Holliday deal. Pitcher Clayton Mortensen was the third player in the deal, and neither of the three have done much in the majors. The Cardinals did draft Lance Lynn in a supplementary pick for Troy Percival. It's hard to even remember Percival pitching for the Cardinals. Lynn has already made an All Star team and is pitching very well this year. Alex Castellanos was drafted in the 10th round, and the significance of him as that he was traded for Rafael Furcal, who played a big role in the 2011 push for the championship. Jermaine Curtis and lefties Sam Freeman and Kevin Siegrist were also picked in this draft. Lynn is the only player from this draft to make a mark on the Cardinals, but two of these players were traded for Holliday

The Cardinals have had 14 players play for them this year in these 5 drafts. Lynn, Adams, Rosenthal, Carpenter, Kelly, Miller, Gast, Lyons, Maness, and Wacha look like they are solid big leaguers. There are a few more that could be. The team has come along way since 2005 when they had one of the worst farm systems.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Matt Carpenter Quietly Having a Big Year




When looking at the Cardinals lineup, Matt Carpenter isn't the first guy who jumps to mind, or the second, or third. However, Carpenter is off to a great start and has been a unheralded hero for the Cardinals this season. The team is on fire since Carpenter took over the leadoff spot from Jon Jay. Carpenter doesn't have Jay's speed, but is a on-base machine. He ranks 7th in the National League with a .394 on base percentage. Carpenter also ranks 3rd in runs with 43, tied for 3rd in doubles with 17, and is tied for 8th with 65 hits. He has been a catalyst for the Cardinals, getting on base often for Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina.

Carpenter made the team out of spring training in 2012 and was a valuable utility man for the team last year. Finishing 6th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, Carp hit .294 last year.He played first, third, left, and right last year. Problem was Craig was the regular first baseman, 2011 postseason hero David Freese the regular third baseman, Holliday the left fielder, and Beltran the right fielder. Carpenter could sub for any of them, but lacked a regular position. Last season, second base was a weak spot with Tyler Greene, Skip Schumaker, and Daniel Descalso holding the position, with Descalso getting the bulk of the playing time. The team decided to try out Carpenter at second to get him more playing time, and possibly be the starter. Jose Oquendo worked with him in the offseason and spring training to transition to second base. The Cardinals made a similar conversion in 2009 when Schumaker was converted from an outfielder to a second baseman.

So far, it's been a smooth transition as Carpenter has fielded his position fairly well. Unlike Schumaker at second, Carpenter has not been a liability on defense. He has started 35 games at second and only made 1 error at that position this season. In his natural position, third base, Carp has made 3 errors in 15 games started there. Descalso has been moved back to a infield utility role that he thrived in during the 2011 championship season. Descalso has hit much better now that he's not over-exposed as a everyday player.

John Mabry took over as the Cardinals hitting coach this year after Mark McGwire left to be the Dodgers hitting coach. Mabry probably sees a young version of himself in Carpenter. They were both left handed, did not wear batting gloves, and had similar stances. Mabry had a nice career and played 14 seasons in the big leagues. I've compared him both to Mabry and Schumaker, but I think that Carpenter is a better hitter than both of two players. Carpenter has a legitimate case to make the All Star team this year, something those two players never accomplished.

It's not a homerish thing to say that Carpenter belongs on the All Star team this year. He won't get voted in as a starter, that will likely go to Brandon Phillips. He will have to get nominated as a reserve, which managers, coaches, and players vote on. There are a few spots directly picked by Bruce Bochy, and if it got to that point, he would like go with Marco Scutaro, who is having a fine season himself. Like I mentioned earlier, Carpenter ranks in the top ten in the NL in several different categories. Below, I will compare Carpenter to other NL second baseman to see were he ranks.

Batting Average
1) Scutaro, SF        .329
2) Carpenter, STL  .314
3) Phillips, CIN      .296
4) Gyorko, SD        .274

On Base Percentage
1) Carpenter, STL   .394
2) Scutaro, SF         .380
3) Walker, PIT        .360
4) Phillips, CIN       .347

Slugging Percentage
1) Phillips, CIN      .481
2) Utley, PHI          .475
3) Carpenter, STL   .452
4) Murphy, NYM   .441

Carpenter has a very good case to make the All Star team. As an added bonus, he is a versatile player who could be very valuable late in the game. One could make the case that Carpenter is having the best offensive season of any second baseman in the National League. At the very least he is in the top 3 with Phillips and Scutaro. Neil Walker and Daniel Murphy are good second baseman, but clearly rank below Carpenter this year. Chase Utley is injury prone and no longer the same player who used to be. Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, and Danny Espinosa are all hitting below the Mendoza line and having terrible seasons so far.

The Cardinals also have top prospect and second baseman Kolten Wong tearing it up in Triple A this year. Wong is hitting .337 in Memphis and has speed and some power. He won't come up until September unless there is an injury, but he will surely be ready for the big leagues next year. Carpenter could be shifted to third to make room for him, but that would leave Freese without a position. Freese has just recently started to heat up after a slow start. That's 3 players for 2 positions. At some point, the team will have to make a decision on that question. Carpenter has played himself into a bigger role with the Cardinals this season, and they will find a way to keep his bat in the lineup in the future.

Special Note: I think it was ridiculous that Yadier Molina received a one game suspension for his actions on Sunday's game. He was thrown out of the game after slamming his helmet down on a close play. Molina did not argue with the umpire before the ejection. He did lose his cool after that, but that umpire had a very short leash on Sunday.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Wacha Latest Rookie to Debut


                                                Michael Wacha, set to debut Thursday

The Cardinals have faced numerous injuries to their pitching staff this season. Chris Carpenter went down right before spring training and his status is uncertain. He has mentioned the possibility of returning later in the season as a reliever. His career was thought to be over a few months ago, but Carpenter has dealt with that possibility before. Jason Motte had to have season ending Tommy John surgery a month ago after missing the first month. Jaime Garcia recently had season ending shoulder surgery. Jake Westbrook is on the disabled list with an ailing elbow and recently sought a second opinion on it. Rookie lefty John Gast went down after 3 big league starts with shoulder tightness. To make things worse, the bullpen struggled early on with poor performance from Mitchell Boggs, Marc Rzepcynski, Fernando Salas, and Joe Kelly.

Luckily, the Cardinals have the game's best farm system and it's loaded with pitching. Shelby Miller won the fifth spot after Carpenter's injury opened it up. Miller has been dominant so far, going 5-3 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He is a top contender for NL Rookie of the Year, but it is a crowded field. Gast won two starts before going to the DL. The Cardinals called up another rookie lefty, Tyler Lyons, to take Garcia's spot. Lyons has gone 2-0 and went seven innings with only 1 run allowed in both starts. With Gast's injury, the Cardinals have decided to call up 2012 #1 draft pick Michael Wacha to take his place. Wacha has been a fast riser in the system and is a month away from turning 22.

Yadier Molina said that Wacha was ready for the big leagues late in spring training this year. He was expected to spend most of the year in Triple A, but multiple injuries have opened up an opportunity for him. Wacha was a compensation pick for losing Albert Pujols to the Angels. In Triple A this year, Wacha has went 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in 52.2 inning pitched. Wacha is a 6-6 right handed pitcher who went to Texas A & M. The Cardinals also considered Kelly as a possibility, but decided on Wacha after passing over him two other times. Wacha will be the 7th rookie to pitch for St. Louis this year and the fifth to debut. So far, rookies have pitched 29 % of the team's innings, have 33 % of their strikeouts, and have won 14 games.

Carlos Martinez flashed some of his immense potential in his call up to the Cardinals this month. He pitched 7 games out of the bullpen for the big club after starting the season in Double A. Martinez also missed spring training because of a visa problem. The Cardinals sent him down earlier this week in favor of Victor Marte. He was sent down so he can start on a regular basis since the Cardinal envision him as a starter. If the Cardinals need another starter for whatever reason, it's very likely Martinez will be back up. He has electric stuff and was ranked the Cardinals #3 prospect coming into the season. He has a similar build and look as Pedro Martinez.

The Cardinals have also fixed their bullpen problems. Edward Mujica has converted all 17 of his save opportunities after taking over the closer role. Rosenthal has took over the 8th inning role and has excelled after some early hiccups in April. Rosenthal came up late last year, but is still a rookie this year. Randy Choate has been a good lefty specialist so far. Seth Maness has won 4 games in relief since being called up. The only downside of Maness is his 1.50 WHIP. The Cardinals also have called up Michael Blazely, but he has yet to pitch for them yet. Blazely will be the 8th rookie to pitch for the Cardinals when he debuts. Kelly, Boggs, and Salas have been up and down, and hopefully can be straightened out some point in the year.

With Westbrook out, Adam Wainwright is the only seasoned veteran on the staff. He is now the mentor of a very young, very talented staff. In the last two seasons, Kelly, Miller, Gast, Lyons, and now Wacha have debuted and started for St. Louis. Lance Lynn made his debut in 2011 and had his first full year in the big leagues last year. Garcia was a rookie in 2010. Along with Martinez, that's a lot of talented pitchers to come along in a short amount of time. In my lifetime, the Cardinals have never had this many young arms come up at once. The Cardinals will no longer have to resort to relying on guys like Kip Wells, Todd Wellemeyer, Sidney Ponson, and other mediocre journeyman type pitchers to fill out their rotation. They could have a dominant rotation for years to come with plenty of depth.


                            Rookie lefty Tyler Lyons

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

LA Fadeaway


               Hamilton and Greinke's new teams are a combined 36-53 right now

A lot has been made of the Dodgers and Angels big moves the last couple of seasons. Despite big spending by these teams, both have failed to make the postseason since 2009. Magic Johnson's ownership group took over the Dodgers last season and made a splash immeadiately. They locked up Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, traded for Hanley Ramirez, and then made a megadeal with Boston to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett. Then in the offseason they signed Korean lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, and spent nearly $150 million to sign Zack Greinke. Arte Moreno's Angels just missed the playoffs last year after giving out big contracts to Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. They acquired Greinke at the trading deadline last year, but lost him to crosstown Dodgers. To compensate, they signed Josh Hamilton to a five year, $100 million contract from the division rival Rangers.

Both teams are off to slow starts this year. Managers Don Mattingly and Mike Scioscia are on the hot seat, especially Mattingly. Mattingly's deal runs out at the season's end, and he will have to win to stay on as manager. Magic Johnson has said he expected the Dodgers to contend for a championship this year. Scioscia's deal runs through 2018 and he has a longer leash. Scioscia has had plenty of success with the Angels, making 6 playoff appearances and winning the 2002 World Series. Still, he is under pressure to win with such a high payroll. Moreno has said that Scioscia is safe this season, but Mattingly might not make it that long if the Dodgers don't improve.

Managers often take the blame for poor performance and underachievement, but is it all their fault? Moves like signing Pujols, Hamilton, or Greinke come from ownership, but their is some questionable moves by both teams in other areas. Another reason why these teams aren't living up to expectations could be the egos of some of the star players. Injuries have also played a role in their struggles. The Dodgers had to deal with injuries to Greinke, Ramirez and Chad Billingsley, and the Angels have been without ace Jered Weaver. That been said, both teams have some flaws that are hampering them.

Angels GM Jerry DiPoto deserves some blame for making some poor decisions. He traded away Jean Segura in the Greinke deal, traded Kendrys Morales for Jason Vargas, traded Ervin Santana for next to nothing, and signed Joe Blanton, who has been terrible. The bullpen is still shaky and newly signed Ryan Madson has yet to pitch for them. Losing Weaver has really hurt the Angels, they can't wait to get him back. The trio of Pujols, Hamilton, and Mike Trout hasn't lived up to expectations as of right now. Pujols and Hamilton are both off to slow starts this season. Pujols has been hampered by his plantar fasciitis and has played half his games as a DH. Hamilton is off to a even slower start and still has some lingering questions about his mental makeup.

The Dodgers moves haven't paid off, either. The pitching staff hasn't been as strong as it was thought to be. That's none of Clayton Kershaw's fault, though. Kershaw is off to another dominant year and even draws comparisons to Sandy Koufax. Greinke was injured in a brawl with Carlos Quentin and missed some time. Chad Billingsley had to have Tommy John surgery, and Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly have also been hurt. Beckett has been awful this year. Closer Brandon League has a ERA north of 5. On the offensive side, Kemp and Ethier haven't produced like in years past. The left side of the infield hasn't produced, either. Ramirez has been limited to 4 games due to injury.

Can these two teams turn it around? Already a quarter into the season, both teams are a combined 17 games under .500. There is still plenty of talent on these teams despite some weaknesses on both of them. There is still plenty of time for both teams to turn it around and make a run at the postseason. Still, both teams have dug themselves into a hole that is going to be hard to get out of. The Dodgers are in last place in the NL West and the Angels are in fourth in the AL West. The Angels are lucky to have the Astros in their division, otherwise they might be in last as well. I think these two teams were overrated coming into the seasn, and the Giants and Rangers were underrated. A team can throw money around to improve, but that doesn't always buy good team chemistry. Both the Angels and Dodgers seem to lack the killer instict to claw back into games. Maybe that changes later in the year, and I also think some of their star players will improve. Still, there is plenty of concerns for both the Dodgers and Angels.


Monday, May 20, 2013

Best Leadoff Hitters in the Game

                    Jose Reyes Michael Bourn Cleveland Indians v Toronto Blue Jays

There are a few different things teams look for in leadoff hitters. The most important thing is getting on base frequently. Teams also look for a hitter than can make the pitcher work. Speed and stolen base ability is also something that is preferred at the top of the lineup. That's not always possible, though. Power isn't something normally associated with a leadoff hitter, but some of them do have some pop in their bat. Today, I'm going to take a look at the best leadoff hitters in the game.

Some of baseball's best hitters have been leadoff hitters. The best ever was Rickey Henderson, who is the all time leader in stolen bases and walks. Henderson also had unusual power for a leadoff hitter. Not all leadoff hitters in the past has amazing speed. Wade Boggs is a prime example of that. Boggs made up for his lack of speed by winning batting titles and getting on base constantly. Tim Raines was overshadowed by Henderson, but was a great leadoff hitter in the 80's and early 90's. Going back further, Lou Brock was the best leadoff hitter the Cardinals ever had. In the past couple of decades, Jeter and Ichiro have been great leadoff hitters.

Last season, rookie phenoms Mike Trout and Bryce Harper both hit out of the leadoff spot. They have been moved down in the order this season. Jeter had a good year at the leadoff spot last year, but is out til after the All Star break and coming off a major injury at a advanced age. Older players like Ichiro Suzuki, Jimmy Rollins, and Juan Pierre are in decline and no longer top leadoff hitters. Nate McLouth has had a resurgence in Baltimore as a leadoff hitter after several unproductive years. Carl Crawford is trying to get his career back on track in LA after two down years in Boston, partly due to injury. Angel Pagan was a sparkplug for the Giants run to the championship last year. In the NL Central, there are some up and comers new to the leadoff spot with the Cardinals Matt Carpenter, Pirates Sterling Marte, and the Brewers Noriochi Aoki. There are also several established leadoff hitters that are having big years this season. I'll rank the best.

Honorable Mention
Geraldo Parra, Diamondbacks
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals
Sterling Marte, Pirates
Dexter Fowler, Rockies
Austin Jackson, Tigers

5) Michael Bourn, Indians

Bourn is in his first American League season with the Indians, after previously playing with the Braves, Astros, and Phillies. Bourn set career highs in home runs(9) and RBIs(57) last year. He also led the NL in steals from 2009-11. Bourn is a two time Gold Glove winner and a two time All Star. Signing Bourn was a big move by Cleveland and it's paid off so far, they are in first place right now.

4) Ian Kinsler, Rangers

For a leadoff hitter, Kinsler probably has the most power in the league. Since the beginning of 2011, Kinsler has 58 home runs, the most by a leadoff hitter in that span. Kinsler also steals around 20-30 bases a year. He is a patient hitter and off to a good start in 2013.

3) Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox

If it wasn't for Ellsbury's outstanding 2011 season, he probably wouldn't rank as high. He was hurt much of 2010 and missed over half of 2012. When healthy, Ellsbury has a mix of speed and power that's hard to beat. He is currently leading the AL with 13 steals, and led the AL in 2008 and 2009. Ellsbury is off to a slow start this year, but has a .293 career average. He probably will never duplicate his 2011 campaign were he hit 32 home runs, drove in 105, hit .321, and led the league in total bases. However, Ellsbury can still be a force at the leadoff spot.

2) Shin-Soo Choo, Reds

Last season, the Reds had dreadful production out of the leadoff spot with Zack Cozart and Drew Stubbs. In the offseason, they acquired Choo from the Indians. Right now, Choo is second in the NL with a .456 on base percentage and has hit 9 home runs so far. Choo has good power for a leadoff hitter and also has some speed on the basepaths. Choo is miscast as a center fielder, but the Reds have improved their offense with his addition as a tablesetter.

1) Jose Reyes, Blue Jays

Reyes is hurt right now, but when healthy he is the best. He has a mix of getting on base, stealing bases, and has extra base power. He is a explosive player on offense, and also is a good defender. His injury has hurt the Jays real bad, but their pitching has dissapointed them the most. Reyes led the NL in batting average in 2011, and had a terrific second half with Miami last year. He was off to a good start in Toronto. Reyes has also led the league in steals three separate times and has 415 steals in his career.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Cardinals Rotation Dominant So Far

                  

As of today, the Cardinals have the best record in the majors with a 21-12 mark. Even more impressive is that they are a major league best 14-7 on the road. The biggest reason why is their starting rotation. The quintet of Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook, and Shelby Miller has been dominant in the first five weeks of the season. The Cardinals lead the majors in starters ERA at 2.28. 5 of the 12 losses by the Cardinals have been the fault of the bullpen. Even that is starting to get worked out with Edward Mujica taking over as closer and a shakeup of the bullpen in the last week.

Each member of the rotation compliment each other with their different styles of pitching. Wainwright has the best curveball in the game and has regained his command this year. Garcia is the rotation's only lefty and is off to a 4-1 start. Lynn is a power pitcher who lost a lot of weight in the offseason, so he shouldn't wear down in the second half this year. Westbrook is a sinkerball pitcher who's specialty is inducing ground balls. Miller takes over for Kyle Lohse and has filthy stuff. Miller is a top Rookie of the Year candidate and is second on the staff in ERA and WHIP. The Cardinals also have plenty of depth if one of their starters went down to injury. They could turn to Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, or Michael Wacha if need be.

Wainwright looks to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery this season. Last year, his command was off, his control wasn't as sharp, and he was hit harder than usual. Waino posted his highest ERA(3.94) in 2012 and suffered a career high 13 losses. He now is resembling the pitcher from 2009-10 who was contending for the Cy Young Award. With Carpenter out, Wainwright is now the unquestioned ace and leader of the staff. The Cardinals also locked Wainwright up to a five year contract going to the end of the 2018 season.

There were some questions about Garcia coming into the season. He had an injury plagued campaign in 2012 and was limited to 20 starts. So far, Garcia has been avoiding the disastrous inning that has hurt him in the past. This might be the season he finally cracks the 200 inning barrier. Lynn also had a up and down season last year. He was terriffic in the first half and made the All Star team. He then wore down in the second half and was temporarily put in the bullpen. Lynn got in better shape in the offseason and shouldn't have the same problem again this season.

Westbrook has been off to a hot start to start the season. He has a staff best 1.62 ERA, which is currently 3rd in the National League. His 1.46 WHIP is a concern, though he has been pitching out of trouble so far this season. Like Lynn, Westbrook has wore down late in the year the past two seasons. He missed the 2012 postseason and only pitched 1 game in relief in the 2011 postseason. However, the one game was very important, and he got the win in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series. Miller is the Redbird's fifth starter and he looks like a future ace. Miller was the Cardinals first round pick in the 2009 draft and is in his rookie season. He hasn't had a bad start yet in his brief major league career. After struggling in the first half in Triple A last year, Miller made some adjustments and started using more of his off speed pitches. It's worked out quite well for him.

The Cardinals offense is starting to heat up as well. Jon Jay, Allen Craig, and Matt Holliday are starting to hit well after slow starts. Like I mentioned earlier, the bullpen is starting to straighten itself out. David Freese is still slumping, but I think he will get straightened out before long. Carlos Beltran and Yadier Molina have been off to terrific starts so far, and Matt Carpenter has been impressive with the bat this year. Carpenter leads the NL with 12 doubles and is fourth in runs scored. His defense has been solid, whether if he's at second or third. The only thing Carpenter needs to work on is his baserunning, he's had a few gaffes so far this year.

Last year's closer Jason Motte will be out for the season and will undergo Tommy John surgery. Mitchell Boggs started the season out as closer, but had to be demoted to Triple A because of his struggles. Boggs did a great job as the 8th inning guy last year, and I suspect he will get straightened out and be back up at some point this year. I think Boggs struggle could be in part of him changing his pitching motion this year. Hard throwing Trevor Rosenthal has took over as the 8th inning guy this year, but he will need some help from Fernando Salas, and Joe Kelly, who have been off to rough starts. Rookies Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness could play a bigger role than expected if those two continue to struggle. From the left hand side, Randy Choate has done a good job as a lefty specialist. However, Marc Rzepczynski's struggles have carried over to this year. John Mozeliak didn't sound to impressed with Scrabble this year, and one has to wonder if he's going to make it back to the majors. Still, with Mujica as closer, the bullpen has been much better and hasn't been blowing as many leads.