Cardinals Bullpen Shaky Early On

         MIA: Motte's Status Uncertain This Season as Cardinals Struggle to Replace Him

The Cardinals had a solid 4-2 opening homestead and two weeks into the season have the lead in the NL Central with a 7-5 record. The starting pitching has been outstanding so far. The Cardinals pitchers threw 39 scoreless innings until it was snapped in the 8th inning of Sunday's game vs. the Brewers. Trevor Rosenthal allowed a two run homer to Ryan Braun, and Mitchell Boggs blew another save opportunity in the 9th. Fernando Salas then proceeded to allow the winning run in the 10th. With a 3-0 lead going into the 8th it looked like the Cardinals would sweep the Brewers, but they had the rug pulled out beneath them. Jaime Garcia watched a second straight start go from a win to a no decision.

The bullpen's performance early on is a cause for concern. So is Jason Motte's elbow. Motte has been shut down to the first of May and may need Tommy John surgery. Still, I don't think it's a reason to panic. Despite their struggles, there is a lot of talent in the bullpen. Boggs was a very good reliever last year, posting a 2.21 ERA. He needs to work out his struggles and Mike Matheny may go with a bullpen by committe for awhile. Rosenthal has been labeled a future closer, but he has had 3 games were he came in and allowed runs. Rosenthal possesses a 100 mph fastball and was a weapon down the stretch last season. Still, he may not be ready to be a closer just yet, as he has had some struggles as the 8th inning guy.

Edward Mujica is another possibility in the 9th. He has been lights out since joining the Cardinals last July. Mujica has a 1.17 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 30.2 innings since becoming a Cardinal and was solid in the postseason last year. At the very least, Mujica might get some more opportunities in the 8th inning or when the Cardinals are in a jam. Sometimes, the game is "saved" in the 7th or 8th, opposed to the 9th. A set up guy sometimes comes into a tough spot with runners on. A closer usually does not in today's game, unless it's the postseason.

Matheny has two lefties to work with this season with Randy Choate joining Scrabble in the bullpen. Choate gives some stability to a team who went through JC Romero, Sam Freeman, Barret Browning, and Brian Fuentes as lefty specialists, none of them sticking. Joe Kelly has been buried in the bullpen, due to a couple of poor outings and the starters pitching deep into games. Matheny might start trying to work in Kelly more, with Boggs and Salas struggling early on. Salas actually led the 2011 Cardinals in saves, but lost the closer job to Motte in September of that year. Salas may need to go down to Triple A to work out his slump. It's possible that a pitcher like Eduardo Sanchez or Maikel Cleto could be called up.

A really good closer certainly helps a team win more games, but it is not always necessary to win. The 7th and 8th inning get overlooked and teams blow games in those innings as well. Relief pitchers sometimes go through rough patches and work it out later in the season. This is why many teams are not investing a lot of money in the bullpen and are going with young hard throwers. While I think elite closers like Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are difference makers, and average closer is not. In recent seasons, closers like Heath Bell, John Axford, Brad Lidge, and Carlos Marmol have went from the saves leaders to bums. Even great closers like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have blown big games in the past. Rivera played a huge role in the Yankees 5 championships and is considered to be the best closer of all time. While that gives a team an advantage, it doesn't always guarantee success.

Recent history also says having an established closer isn't a prerequisite for a championship. The Cardinals won both of their recent championships without one. In 2006, Jason Isringhausen went down in September, and then rookie Adam Wainwright was thrust into the role of closer for the postseason. Wainwright freezing Carlos Beltran with his curve to save Game 7 in the NLCS is one of the biggest moments in recent Cardinals history. Who knows if the Cardinals still would of won if Izzy would of been healthy? In 2011, the Cardinals went with Ryan Franklin, Boggs, Salas, and finally Motte as their closer. The bullpen was shaky all year, blowing many saves, but it gelled during the stretch run and in the postseason. Going back even further, the 1985 Cardinals won over 100 games with a bullpen by committee. Bruce Sutter left as a free agent prior to that season, and the Cardinal went with a mix Ken Dayley, Jeff Lahti, and Bill Campbell. Late in the season, hard throwing Todd Worrell took over as closer.

Other teams have also been able to win the World Series recently when injuries or underperformance occured with their closer. Brian Wilson played a vital role in the Giants championship in 2010. Early on in 2012, Wilson went down with an injury and needed Tommy John surgery. The Giants went with a mix of Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, and Sergio Romo in the 9th. Romo eventually took the closer role and the Giants won the World Series again in 2012. They even used starter Tim Lincecum in relief during the playoffs. The White Sox won the 2005 World Series after Bobby Jenks replaced a tired Dustin Hermanson late in the season. The 2003 Marlins flip flopped Braden Looper and Ugueth Urbina from the 8th and 9th inning during their run to the championship. The Randy Johnson/Curt Schilling led 2001 Diamondbacks were able to win the World Series despite Byung-Hyun Kim blowing a couple games. I think the Cardinals bullpen issues will work out at some point this season. There is still a lot of talent in their bullpen.

Who is Baseball's Best Pitcher?

In the last few seasons, there has been a renaissance of pitching in baseball. There are many elite pitchers in the game right now, and there are a lot of young arms coming up from the minors. Pitchers like Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver,  Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, and Matt Cain have all signed huge contracts within the last couple of years. Younger pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Stephen Strasburg will certainly cash in at some point. So, who is the best pitcher in baseball? That's a debateable topic with several possible answers. I did some research and looked at what each pitcher has done from the beginning of the 2010 season. I included up to Tuesday's games this year, but did not include any postseason games.

Wins

1) Justin Verlander    60-23
2) CC Sabathia         56-22
3) Gio Gonzalez        53-29
4) David Price           51-25
5) Jered Weaver       51-26
6) Roy Halladay        51-26
7) Clayton Kershaw  50-24
8) Tim Hudson          50-26
9) Yovani Gallardo    47-26
10) Ian Kennedy        46-26

Innings Pitched

1) Felix Hernandez     729.1
2) Justin Verlander     726
3) James Shields         692.1
4) CC Sabathia          687
5) Clayton Kershaw   681.1
6) Matt Cain              674
7) Cliff Lee                672.2
8) Jered Weaver        659.2
9) David Price           655
10) Dan Haren          654

Strikeouts

1) Justin Verlander    719
2) Clayton Kershaw  705
3) Felix Hernandez    688
4) Tim Lincecum       652
5) James Shields       649
6) Cliff Lee               644
7) CC Sabathia        633
8) Cole Hamels        628
9) David Price          618
10) Yovani Gallardo 617

ERA

1) Clayton Kershaw  2.50
2) Jered Weaver       2.77
3) Justin Verlander    2.78
4) Cliff Lee               2.85
5) Josh Johnson        2.90
6) Felix Hernandez   2.91
7) Johnny Cueto       2.93
8) Matt Cain             3.02
9) RA Dickey           3.04
10) Gio Gonzalez      3.06

WHIP

1) Clayton Kershaw  1.04
2) Jered Weaver        1.04
3) Cliff Lee                1.04
4) Justin Verlander     1.05
5) Matt Cain              1.05
6) Roy Halladay         1.10
7) Felix Hernandez     1.13
8) Cole Hamels          1.13
9) Mat Latos              1.14
10) Adam Wainwright 1.15

I went into this thinking Justin Verlander was the clear cut best pitcher in baseball, but one could make a case for Clayton Kershaw or even Felix Hernandez. Verlander got most of the attention after winning the Cy Young, MVP, and pitching Triple Crown in 2011, but Kershaw had a great season as well. Kershaw won the pitching Triple Crown for the National League in 2011 as well as the Cy Young Award. He followed up by leading the NL in ERA and WHIP in 2012. One has to wonder how many wins would King Felix have if he pitched for a better team. The Mariners improved their offense this year, so he might get more run support. Hernandez did win 19 games in 2009, but has never won 20. He even managed to win the Cy Young Award in 2010 despite winning only 13 games. He did lead the league in strikeouts, ERA, and many other categories.

Last season, Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum had off years. Will that continue to be a trend this year? So far, it isn't looking good, but it's early in the season right now. These two pitchers were in the discussion of best pitchers until last year. Pitchers like Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee may not be the best, but they are among the best year in and year out. Gio Gonzalez, Johnny Cueto, and RA Dickey all had breakout years last season, but can they repeat it? Stephen Strasburg will certainly be in the discussion in coming years, but he doesn't have the track record yet to be considered the best.

Right now, I would still consider Verlander to be the best pitcher in the game. Kershaw is closely behind and could pass him this season or the next. Kershaw's next contract might even top Verlander's recent record deal. I would rank Hernadez third, and he has the potential to be the best. Price and Weaver would round out my top five.

Big Spending Teams Who Flopped

          

There was a lot made this past offseason over the moves made by the two Los Angeles clubs, the Dodgers and Angels. The Blue Jays also made a big splash with their moves. While these three teams acquired some talented(but expensive) players, there is no guarantee how it will work out. There has been occasions in the past when making offseason headlines paid off the following October. The 1997 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, and the 2009 Yankees are the best examples of that. More often that not, it doesn't work out as intended. Sometimes, a player will fall off after signing a big deal, or bad chemistry will effect these teams. This post will discuss teams who spent big and crashed.

1988 New York Yankees

The 1980's Yankees had a lot of stars and even had the best winning percentage of that decade, but only had 2 postseason appearances the whole decade. They occured in 1980 and 1981. George Steinbrenner collected stars like baseball cards, and there were several disastrous free agent signings and trades during this decade. The Yankees traded away future All Stars like Willie McGee, Fred McGriff, Doug Drabek, Jay Buhner, Al Leiter, and Bob Tewksbury for relatively nothing during the 80's. One trade that did work out was for Rickey Henderson. However, the Yankees would never make the playoffs with the all time leading base stealer.

It's not like it was Henderson's fault, he put up several All Star campaigns, and the Yankees won over 90 games in 1985 and 1986, and 89 in 1987. In the 87-88 offseason, the Yankees hired Billy Martin as manager for the fifth time, signed slugger Jack Clark, traded for pitcher Richard Dotson, and later traded Buhner for aging Ken Phelps. Martin only made it half a season before being replaced by Lou Piniella(who Martin replaced the previous offseason). The Yankees finished in fifth, and went into a four year period of darkness. This would be Dave Winfield's last season in the Bronx as well. Steinbrenner would later get into trouble trying to dig up dirt on Winfield.

1991 Chicago Cubs

In 1989, the Cubs finished with the best record in the National League and won the NL East. They then lost to the Giants in 5 games in the NLCS. They were 16 games worse in 1990, so the front office decided to make some moves. They still had a core of Ryne Sandberg, Mark Grace, Shawon Dunston, Greg Maddux, and Andre Dawson. The Cubs decided to spend big, signing free agent outfielder George Bell, closer Dave Smith, and left handed starter Danny Jackson. So what happened? Smith was terrible in Chicago and posted a 6.00 ERA in 91 and soon was out of the league. Jackson also flopped and was traded to the Pirates in mid-92. Bell made the NL All Star team in 91, but was traded the next offseason for Sammy Sosa. Needless to say, the 91 Cubs were expected to contend for the playoffs with their new additions, but won the same amount of games as the previous season.

1992 New York Mets

From 1984 to 1990, the Mets were the class of the National League, winning over 90 games every season but 1989. They won over 100 games in 1986 and 1988, the only years they made the playoffs that stretch. In 1991, they fell off and only won 77 games. They lost franchise player Darryl Strawberry after 1990 and replaced him with speedster Vince Coleman. The Mets still had some stars, but it was not the juggernaut who won the 1986 World Series anymore. Only Howard Johnson, Kevin Elster, Doc Gooden, and Sid Fernandez remained from that team. So, the Mets decided to bolster their club by signing Bobby Bonilla to a then record 5 year, $25 million deal, and trading for 2 time Cy Young Award winner Bret Saberhagen. They also signed free agents Eddie Murray and Willie Randoph.

So what happened to this team? Bonilla and Saberhagen had down years their first seasons in New York. Johnson was moved from third base to center field, and he didn't bring his bat with him. After leading the NL with 38 homers in 91, Johnson slumped and had a terrible season offensively. The team had a strong pitching staff on paper, but closer John Franco was hurt midseason, and David Cone was traded late in the year. The team's defense was also horrible with players playing out of position and some past their prime. After being predicted to win the NL East, the Mets finished 5th. The following year, they lost 103 games. New York sportswriters dubbed this team the "Worst Team Money Could Buy."

1997 Chicago White Sox

The Sox made big headlines in late 1996, signing free agent OF Albert Belle from the division rival Indians. Belle signed one of the first contracts to pay over $10 million a season. With Belle teaming with Frank Thomas, this was supposed to be one of the best offenses in the league. Belle and Thomas both put up big numbers. However, due to injuries, aging players, and underperformance, the Sox finished 9th in the AL in runs scored. Chicago also signed past their prime pitchers Jaime Navarro, Doug Drabek, and Danny Darwin for the 97 campaign, and they were all bad. About the same time Robin Ventura got healthy, the Sox traded away pitchers Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez, and Darwin to the Giants for a package of six prospects headlined by Keith Foulke. Many people dubbed it the "White Flag Trade". Despite some struggles, the Sox were within 3 games of first at the time of the trade, but were never able to get any closer after the trade. Belle later opted out of his deal after his second season in the South Side.

1999 Los Angeles Dodgers

Big changes for the Dodgers actually started during the 1998 season. Rupert Murdoch bought the team from the longtime ownership of the O'Malley family. Star catcher Mike Piazza was traded away in May after contract negotiations broke down. The Dodgers did get a package of five players including Gary Sheffield in the trade. The Dodgers also acquired Jeff Shaw and Mark Grudzielanek during the season, trading away top prospects like Paul Konerko and Ted Lilly. The Dodgers also had two different managers during the 98 season.

For the 1999 season, the Dodgers made even bigger moves. They hired Davey Johnson to be their new manager. They signed Kevin Brown to the first $100 million contract, despite the fact that Brown was 34. They felt that Brown was a better investment than Randy Johnson, who was thought to have a bad back. Todd Hundley and Devon White were also added. This team had a lot of big name stars, but perhaps a clash of egos and personalities did not work out. The Dodgers finished a distant third in 99, as the Diamondbacks won the division with Johnson.

2001-02 Texas Rangers

During the 2000-01 offseason, many big deals were signed. Manny Ramirez signed with the Red Sox, Mike Mussina with the Yankees, and the Rockies signed the Denny Neagle/Mike Hampton lefty combo(that was a big flop as well). The biggest move of all was the Rangers signing shorstop Alex Rodriguez to a 10 year, $250 million deal. Later, owner Tom Hicks would have to go through bankruptcy in part of this deal. The Rangers also added aging players like Andres Gallaraga, Randy Velarde, Ken Caminiti, and Ruben Sierra. The 2001 team was third in the AL in runs scored, led by A-Rod, Ivan Rodriguez, and Rafeal Palmeiro. However, their pitching was atrocious, finishing dead last in team ERA at 5.71. The Rangers only won 73 games and finished in last place. For the 2002 season, they doubled down on big spending, signing Chan Ho Park and Juan Gonzalez. Both players flopped as the Rangers again finished in last in 2002.

2008 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers faded down the stretch in 2007, missing out on the playoffs after making the World Series the previous season. GM Dave Dombrowski decided to bring in some players from his Marlins days. He traded for Gary Sheffield the year before, but he didn't make the desired impact. Dombrowski dealt away pitching prospect Jair Jurrjens to the Braves for Edgar Renteria. Then, he traded away 6 prospects headlined by Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Carlos Guillen moved to first base, then later third base to accomodate Renteria. Their was predictions of a 1,000 run season and talk of a World Series run coming into the 2008 season.

However, the Tigers ended up having a terrible season, winning only 74 games. What was the problem? It certainly was not Cabrera, who put up a monster year, leading the AL in home runs. Renteria wasn't the same player in Detroit as he was in the past. The team's defense was shaky. Jim Leyland referred to it a as a "horseshit defense." The pitching was also bad in 2008, finishing 12th in the AL in ERA. Justin Verlander had his worst season, finishing 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA. Verlander has obviously rebounded from that, but the other pitchers did not. Willis was a complete disaster in Detroit and is no longer in the majors. Jeremy Bonderman was hurt and never the same. The Tigers were also relying on aging pitchers Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones, who slumped and retired at season's end. Unlike many of these other teams, the Cabrera trade worked out great long term. However, pitching and defense sunk the Tigers in 2008.

2011-12  Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox missed the postseason in 2010, and watched division rivals New York and Tampa Bay both make it. They decided to take action in the offseason to correct that. They traded for slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and signed free agent outfielder Carl Crawford. They figured they weakened the Rays by signing away Crawford, a power and speed threat. Kevin Youkilis was moved to third to make room for A-Gone. With Youk, Big Papi, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury to go along with these new additions, big things were expected in Beantown.

The Red Sox had the division lead going into September. They soon lost that, but retained the wild card lead. In the season's last day, Boston choked away the playoffs, and the Rays took it. Manager Terry Francona was soon fired, and GM Theo Epstein left for the Cubs job. Then, there was a supposed chicken and beer scandal involving pitchers Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, and Clay Buchholz. Boston went with Bobby Valentine to try to bring order in the clubhouse. Instead, Valentine ended up alienating his players and was dismissed after one last place season. Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett were traded to the Dodgers in August, marking a end of the Crawford/Gonzalez era.

2012 Miami Marlins

The Marlins opened up a gaudy new park in 2012, mostly financed by Miami and Florida taxpayers. Owner Jeffrey Loria insisted that a new ballpark was essential for the Marlins to compete and spend money on players. The Marlins had a young core of Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Josh Johnson already. They then added Heath Bell, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Carlos Zambrano to the mix, along with new manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen stirred up controversy from the start, and the Marlins got off to a poor start. Midway through the season, the front office decided to trade away Ramirez, Omar Infante, Anibal Sanchez, Randy Choate, and Edward Mujica. Then in the offseason, they traded away Bell, Buehrle, Reyes, and John Buck, and let go of Zambrano and manager Guillen. Loria claimed these moves were baseball related and had nothing to do with their salaries. Needless to say, the Marlins have one of the lowest payrolls in the league this year. It's unclear if last year's group of players would of been a winner, but they weren't given much of a chance either.

Wainwright Extended

Yesterday, the Cardinals announced that they signed pitcher Adam Wainwright to a five year, $97.5 million extension that carries to the 2018 season. It is the longest contract for a pitcher in club history. Only Matt Holliday's current deal and Albert Pujols 2004-11 deal surpasses it in overall money. With Chris Carpenter's injury issues expected to force him into retirement, the Cardinals felt like they needed to lock up their #1 starter. Since losing Pujols to free agency after the 2011 season, the Cardinals have made some moves to lock up key pieces like Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Allen Craig. They also signed Jaime Garcia to an extension right before then.

This deal carries some risk, though. This is far more money committed to Waino than his previous deal, which was a bargain. In his first post-Tommy John surgery season, Wainwright was up and down. He finished the season with a 14-13 record with a 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts in 198.2 innings pitched. He did pitch better in the second half, especially in July and August. It took Wainwright awhile to regain his feel for his curveball after surgery. At times, Cardinal fans saw a vintage Waino, other times they saw a pitcher who was struggling. It takes pitchers awhile to fully recover from Tommy John, and the Cardinals are betting that Wainwright will this year and in the future.

Wainwright started his career in the Cardinals bullpen in 2006, his rookie season. Closer Jason Isringhausen went down, and Wainwright took over the closing duties late in the season in to the playoffs. The Cardinals went on to win the World Series, with Wainwright closing out Game 7 of the NLCS and the deciding game of the World Series. Now teammate Carlos Beltran was frozen on a Wainwright curveball in the 2006 NLCS. With many starters leaving via free agency that winter, Dave Duncan and Tony La Russa
 decided to put Waino in the rotation. He threw for over 200 innings in 2007 and won 14 games on a Cardinals team that finished below .500. He missed some action in 2008, but had went 11-3 with a  3.20 ERA in 132 innings. Wainwright was on his way to becoming a dominant pitcher.

In 2009 and 2010, Wainwright was one of the best pitchers in baseball, a true ace. He led the National League with 19 wins in '09 and finished 3rd in Cy Young Award voting. While he missed out on the CYA, Adam won the Gold Glove. In 2010, he had a even better year, winning 20 games, posting a 2.42 ERA. Wainwright still finished 2nd in the Cy Young to Roy Halladay. He made his first All Star team in 2010 as well. Big things were expected in 2011, possibly finally winning the coveted Cy Young Award. Unfortunately, Wainwright felt elbow pain in spring training 2011 and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, missing the entire season. Even worse for Wainwright, he missed out on a championship season.

So, what to expect from Wainwright this season? A pitcher who will contend for the CYA, or a innings eater who isn't as dominant? I think that Wainwright will be better this season and will lower his ERA quite a bit. He will have a better feel for his curveball, which is one of the game's best. Will he be able to be the pitcher he was in 09-10? That remains to be seen. At the very least, Wainwright is the staff's unquestioned ace and leader. He will be a mentor to Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller, much in the way Carpenter and Daryl Kile were in the past for St. Louis.

Other Cardinal Notes: Both closer Jason Motte and third baseman David Freese will start the season off on the disabled list. Ryan Jackson will make the opening day roster, with Matt Carpenter expected to fill in for Freese. Carpenter will also play second base at times, especially when Freese comes back. Mitchell Boggs will fill in as closer in Motte's absence, with Edward Mujica and Trevor Rosenthal taking on Boggs' eighth inning setup role. Shelby Miller has won the fifth starter competition, beating out Joe Kelly. Kelly will pitch out of the bullpen.

                    

2013 MLB Predictions

                          

NL East

1) Nationals
2) Braves(WC)
3) Phillies
4) Mets
5) Marlins

I think the NL East will be pretty close to last year's results. The Nationals could be even better than the team that won 98 games last season. They added Denard Span, Dan Haren, and Rafeal Soriano to a team loaded with young stars. The Braves acquired the Upton brothers this offseason, but lost franchise icon Chipper Jones. Still a solid team with one of the game's best bullpens. Age is starting to catch up with the Phillies, and they'll need big comeback years from Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley if they are going to contend. David Wright signed a long term deal to stay with the Mets, but he is in for another rebuilding year. The Marlins had yet another fire sale this offseason, trading Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell one year after signing them. Their fan base has had quite enough of owner Jeffrey Loria.

NL Central
1) Cardinals
2) Reds(WC)
3) Pirates
4) Brewers
5) Cubs

The NL Central will no longer have the Astros as their punching bag, with Houston moving to the American League. The Cardinals came within one game of returning to the World Series last year, and have the game's best farm system. They will have to do without Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal this season. The Reds blew a 2-0 lead in the NLDS to the Giants last year, ending the season dissapointingly. They return pretty much the same team, adding Sin-Shoo Choo and losing Scott Rolen. This might finally be the year the Pirates finish over .500. I still think they have too many holes to compete with the Reds and Cardinals, though. It looks like the Brewers pitching is going to keep them down this year, with a shaky staff after ace Yovani Gallardo. The Cubs look to be the doormat of this division and are coming off a season were they lost 101 games.

NL West

1) Giants
2) Dodgers
3) Diamondbacks
4) Padres
5) Rockies

A lot of people are picking the Dodgers to win the West, but I'm going with the defending champs. The Giants were written off as a fluke after winning the 2010 World Series, but it's not a fluke when you win a championship 2 out of 3 seasons. While the Giants may not have the star power the Dodgers do, I think they still have the better overall team. The Dodgers are certainly capable of winning the division, but I'm not convinced yet. What kind of production will they get from guys like Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Hanley Ramirez? I see those players being in possible decline. I'm still not sure on how Adrian Gonzalez and even Zack Greinke will adapt in LA. The Diamondbacks had a busy offseason and traded their biggest star Justin Upton for a package of players headlined by Martin Prado. Should still be a decent team, though. The Padres were one of the best second half teams in baseball last year. They have some emerging players, but will have to do without NL RBI leader Chase Headley for the first month. That could kill their momentum. The Rockies had a miserable season last year, and Walt Weiss takes over as the team's manager. This could also be Todd Helton's last year.




       
AL East

1) Blue Jays
2) Rays(WC)
3) Orioles
4) Red Sox
5) Yankees

This division should be a dogfight and it could be a close division overall. This is the first year in a long time that the Red Sox or Yankees are not favored to win it. The Blue Jays added RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, and Melky Cabrera in the offseason. One is never certain on teams that make big offseason splashes, it doesn't work all the time. I do think they should contend and on paper they have the best team. The Rays lost BJ Upton and  traded away James Shields and Wade Davis for a package of prospects headlined by Wil Nieves. Tampa also picked up several useful players and still have a lot of talent on the team. The key is they need a big year from Evan Longoria. The Orioles made their first postseason appearance in 15 years, and had a impressive knack for winning one run and extra inning games. Can their luck continue? Possibly, if their young players step up. The Red Sox picked up Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, Stephen Drew, and Mike Napoli during the offseason. Biggest move of all was replacing Bobby Valentine with John Farell. This team still has some holes and injury concerns, but won't have to deal with any sideshows this year. Age and injuries look to doom the Yankees this year. By the time Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira come back, they may of fallen too behind.

AL Central

1) Tigers
2) Royals
3) Indians
4) White Sox
5) Twins

The Tigers are the class of this division. I don't see any other team winning it this year. I see the next three teams being really close. I took a leap of faith picking the Royals second, but I think they turn it around this year. They made some moves to improve their pitching, trading for James Shields, Wade Davis, and Ervin Santana. They also have some emerging young position players. The Indians added manager Terry Francona, Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and many others this offseason. They should be much improved, but their starting pitching is still a concern. If Ubaldo Jimenez can find his old form, it's possible they could contend for one of the wild card spots. The White Sox led the division most of the season, but lost it in the last month to Detroit. They still are a solid, but incomplete team. The Twins most likely will be at the bottom of the division.

AL West

1) Angels
2) Rangers(WC)
3) Mariners
4) Athletics
5) Astros

I don't think anyone thought the Athletics would win this division last year, not even Billy Beane. They snuck in a race that was supposed to be between Texas and LA. The Angels signed free agent Josh Hamilton away from division rival Texas. Hamilton joins a lineup that already includes Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. The Rangers still have a solid team, but have fallen behind the Angels. I think the Mariners do better this year, they made some moves to improve their offense. Felix Hernandez also signed a long term extension this offseason. I'm not sure where to peg the A's, they could finish anywhere between first and fourth. It seemed a little flukey, and they could fall back. Then again, they have some young talent that is getting better. The Astros play their first American League season this year, and figure to be as bad in their new league as their old one.

Postseason

Wild Card Game
Braves over Reds
Rays over Rangers

Division Series
Nationals over Braves
Cardinals over Giants
Rays over Angels
Tigers over Blue Jays

Championship Series
Nationals over Cardinals
Tigers over Rays

World Series
Nationals over Tigers

NL MVP
1) Andrew McCutchen
2) Joey Votto
3) Allen Craig
4) Ryan Zimmerman
5) Buster Posey

AL MVP
1) Mike Trout
2) Evan Longoria
3) Miguel Cabrera
4) Jose Bautista
5) Jose Reyes

NL Cy Young
1) Stephen Strasburg
2) Clayton Kershaw
3) Matt Cain
4) Adam Wainwright
5) Cole Hamels

AL Cy Young
1) Felix Hernandez
2) Justin Verlander
3) Jered Weaver
4) Josh Johnson
5) David Price

NL Rookie of the Year

Shelby Miller

AL Rookie of the Year

Wil Nieves

NL Manager of the Year

Clint Hurdle

AL Manager of the Year

Joe Maddon

NL Comeback Player

Tim Lincecum

AL Comeback Player

Evan Longoria

Cardinals Deciding on Middle Infield, Fifth Starter

                     Matt Carpenter: This Year's Second Baseman?

Coming into spring training, there were few questions heading into the season. Most of the roster was set, and the major competition was who was going to be the last guy on the bench and in the bullpen. Second base was the biggest spot up for grabs, with Daniel Descalso returning and Matt Carpenter learning how to play the position in the offseason. However, since then it has been announced by the team that pitcher Chris Carpenter and shortstop Rafael Furcal will miss the entire season due to injuries. This has opened up new competition for shortstop and for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Last season, second base was clearly the weakest spot on the team. Out of spring training, Mike Matheny went with a platoon of Descalso and Tyler Greene. Skip Schumaker joined the mix later in the year when he came off the DL. Descalso wound up playing the most games there, but only hit .227 for the season. Greene was never able to harness his talents in the big leagues, and after a miserable game in August was sent to Houston. Skip was traded to the Dodgers during the offseason, and the Cardinals signed veteran utilityman Ty Wigginton to replace him.

While Descalso is cleary the best defensive second baseman on the roster, I think the Redbirds will go with Carpenter as their main second baseman this year. They'll sacrifice some defense, but gain a lot more offense. Carpenter hit .296 last year in part time play with some power, and can also play first, third, left, and right field. Considering that Carpenter has experience playing the infield, it should be a better conversion than converted outfielder Schumaker. Descalso will also get some time at second, but with Furcal out, he will likely see some more time at short this year. 2011 first round pick Kolten Wong will likely start out in Triple A Memphis, but it is possible he could be in the majors later this season.

In Furcal's absence, Pete Kozma will likely be the starting shortstop heading into the season. The Cardinals also signed journeyman Ronny Cedeno, who's spot on the major league roster is not guaranteed. Kozma hit .333 in 72 at bats in September and had some key hits in the postseason last year. However, Kozma's fielding in the NLCS was brutal last year. He was the Cardinals 2007 1st round pick, but was leapfrogged by Ryan Jackson last season in Triple A. However, it seems that Kozma has leaped ahead of Jackson on the depth chart since then. Kozma is also a career .236 hitter in the minor leagues, but has hit .341 this spring. It is unclear how Kozma will fare in the big leagues, and I would expect Descalso to be the backup. With every other position having a good bat, the Cardinals could make do at short. However, if this isn't working out come July, I would think John Mozeliak would make a move.

For the fifth spot, it is a competition between Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. Trevor Rosenthal was also considered, but he will open the season in the bullpen. Rosenthal opened some eyes in the organization last fall. He was dominant out of the bullpen, and could be a future closer. Rosenthal can reach 100 mph, and he still could be a starter. The Cardinals said it's very possible he could follow the path of Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, who both started out in the bullpen. Last week, Kelly started a game and Miller relieved, and this week Miller will start and Kelly will relieve. Kelly has the edge in big league experience, but Miller has the higher ceiling.

Kelly started 16 games for last season's club, and had a respectable 3.53 ERA. Miller struggled in Triple A in the first half of last year, but rediscovered his form in the second half. Miller started using his off speed pitches again. Miller also pitched 6 shutout innings against the Reds in the season finale last year, his only start. It's not certain who will win this spot yet, but I would expect both pitchers to start games for St. Louis this year. One thing is certain, Miller will not be pitching out of the bullpen. He will either be in the Cardinals rotation or in Memphis' rotation. If Kelly is not in the rotation, he will likely be in the major league bullpen. That would leave Fernando Salas as the odd man out in that scenario.

One last note: The Cardinals made a terrific move by signing Allen Craig to a 5 year, $31 million deal with a option for 2018. If the option is picked up, it will take him to his age 33 season. The Cardinals have locked up Craig through most of his prime years at a discount rate. In only 119 games last year, Craig hit .307, slugged .522, hit 22 doubles, and 92 RBIs. He was 7th in the National League in batting average and slugging. Imagine if Craig plays a full healthy season, what type of numbers he would put up. Craig had a higher average, OBP, and slugging than Albert Pujols last year at a fraction of the cost. Even with his new deal, Craig averages $6 million a season, and Pujols averages $24 million. Craig said he signed the new deal because he liked playing in St. Louis. While he could of got more money if he waited, he said after his knee injury in Houston two years ago, he knows his career could be over in a instant. Hopefully, he can avoid injuries and put up some big years as the Cardinals first baseman.



                           Miller and Kelly, Fifth Starter Candidates

New Order in the AL East

                                        Rivera enters his final season

The American League East should be an interesting division this year. The traditional powers of the division are fading. The Red Sox finished in last place and fired manager Bobby Valentine after one tumultous season. 2012 was far worse for Boston than the chicken and beer club the year before. The Yankees won the division last year, but are already plagued with injuries during spring training. Age may be catching up with them. The Orioles were a surprise team last year, and look to build on 2012's success. The Rays won 90 games last year, but just missed out on the playoffs.

The most interesting team in the division is the Blue Jays. They are coming off a 73-89 season, but made many big additions during the offseason. They made two seperate deals with the bottom feeders of the NL East, the Mets and Marlins. They acquired RA Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Emilio Bonifacio. They also signed Melky Cabrera, who is coming off a PED suspension. Toronto also has a new manager, which is an old face. John Gibbons is entering his second stint with Toronto. His first stint was stormy, and he had confrontations with Ted Lilly and Shea Hillenbrand. This is a way different club, though.

Toronto underachieved last season, due to weak pitching and an injury to Jose Bautista. They have added three top starters, and Brendan Morrow should be healthy this year. Edwin Encarnacion had a breakout year last season, hitting 42 home runs. While Reyes, Bautista, and Encarnacion are the key players on their offense, the Jays need young players like Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and JP Arencibia to step up. Toronto could be really good this year, but it depends on how this team gels together.

The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in the offseason, picking up 4 prospects, headed by OF Wil Nieves. They also picked up James Loney, Kelly Johnson, and Yunel Escobar, but loss BJ Upton to free agency. They have a versatile club, and Joe Maddon is good at mixing and matching, especially with Ben Zobrist, who can play almost anywhere. Despite trading away Shields and Davis, the Rays still have 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jeff Niemann, and Alex Cobb in their rotation. Closer Fernando Rodney had a career year last season. Still, the Rays could use a big year from Evan Longoria. Longoria was limited to 74 games last year, and a return to health could take the Rays to the next level.

Last season, the Orioles were amazing in one run games, and in extra inning games. They went 16-2 in extra innings, and 29-9 in one run games. Not sure if they can carry that luck over to this year, but they do have a young improving ballclub. Baltimore brings back most of last year's club, and manager Buck Showalter has done a terrific job with this team. The Orioles are no longer the doormat of the AL East.

A team that could be in a decline is the Yankees. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are both coming off serious injuries. Alex Rodriguez had hip surgery and may not even play this season. CC Sabathia had bone spurs removed during the offseason. Phil Hughes has been dealing with a back issue. Russell Martin left as a free agent, leaving Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, and prospect Austin Romine as the options for catcher. Curtis Granderson broke his forearm last weekend, and now Mark Teixeira is out 8-10 weeks with a strained wrist. Other players like Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, and Ichiro Suzuki are getting old. Newcomers like Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner are also declining players.

The Yankees may not crash and burn this season, but it could be a trying season for Joe Girardi's club. Despite winning the division last year, they are no longer the favorites in the East or even to make the playoffs. Their arch rivals, the Red Sox, are also a team at crossroads. They added Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Joel Hanrahan, Stephen Drew, and Ryan Dempster during the offseason. None of these guys are huge additions, but they could help. Boston will need healthy and productive seasons from David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Jon Lester if it wants to contend this year. Otherwise, they will be an average club this year.

I think it will be a dogfight this year in the East. This might be baseball's most exciting race this year. The Yankees and Red Sox no longer dominate this division like they used to. The Rays have been contending for the last 5 years, and the Orioles made their first postseason in 15 years last season. The Blue Jays should be pretty good this year. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out this season.


                            Blue Jays revamped rotation