Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Cards Farm System Loaded with Talent


Cardinals top pitching prospect Shelby Miller

In recent years the Cardinals have improved their minor league system. Its been one of John Mozeliak's priorities, and he has pushed for younger players to get a shot with the big club. In recent years, the Cards have brought up some good players, and there is more on the way. Farm director John Vuch and outgoing scouting/player development director Jeff Luhnow(who's now the Astros GM) have also helped turn around the farm system. The Cardinals have always had good player development coaches, and now their farm system is productive again after being barren 5-6 years ago. Noted minor league analyst John Sickels recently described the Redbirds minor leagues system as very strong. Here's a list of some of the Redbirds top prospects.

Catchers
Tony Cruz is the Redbirds most polished catching prospect, and spent some time in the big leagues last season. He could be the backup catcher next season, and caught 44% of runners trying to steal in the minors. Bryan Anderson was once the top catching prospect, but has spent the last three seasons in Triple A Memphis.

First Baseman
Matt Adams has been a big time hitter in the minors since getting drafted in 2009. The 23 year old left handed hitter hit .300 with 32 homers and 101 RBIs last season in Double A Springfield. Their home ballpark is regarded as a bandbox, but Adams has hit on every level so far. He will start at Triple A, and could make the big club at some point during 2012. Mark Hamilton is also in the minors, but he's already 27 and probably not the impact hitter Adams will be.

Second Baseman
Second base has been a weak spot for this organization for awhile. But in 2011, the Cards drafted Hawaiin born Kolten Wong with their first pick. He bats left handed and throw right handed, and hit .335 with Low A Quad Cities and helped lead them to the league title. Wong hits for average, gets on base, plays good defense, has good baserunning ablility, and might hit for power when he gets older. Just turned 21, he should start of in High A or Double A next season.

Shortstop 
Shortstop has also been a revolving door lately with the Cardinals. They re-signed Rafeal Furcal, but will soon need to come up with a long term option. Longtime prospect Tyler Greene will finally get a shot to play in the big leagues next year, maybe at second base. 2007 first round pick Pete Kozma has the best infield arm in the system, but is a weak hitter. Ryan Jackson has emerged as the top SS prospect, and was rated as the best defensive infielder in the system. He had his best offensive season last year in Double A, and could start in Triple A next year.

Third Baseman
2010 first round pick Zack Cox is the top 3B prospect, and has hit for a high average in the minors. There has been talk of moving him to second or a corner outfield spot. More athletic than Brett Wallace, but has hit for less power in the minors than he did. Matt Carpenter is more major league ready, but he will be 26 next season and World Series MVP David Freese is blocking him from the majors. Carpenter is a candidate to be traded, due to depth at the position.

Outfielders
Oscar Taveras is the highest ranked non pitching prospect in the Cards system. The 19 year old left hander hit .386 in Quad Cities last year. Scouts are unsure how much power he will hit for, but he is rated the best average hitter in the system. He is likely a few years away though. Adron Chambers came up in September, and even made the postseason roster last year. He is fast, and is competing with Rule V pick Erik Komatsu for a backup outfield spot on the Cardinals next year. The Cardinals drafted two fast, athletic, toolsy center fielders out of high school last year. They drafted Charlie Tilson in the second round, and CJ McElroy(son of former reliever Chuck McElroy) in the third round. Hopefully, one of these guys can develop into a Michael Bourn or Kenny Lofton type player 4 or 5 years down the road.

Starting Pitchers
You have to be excited about the Cards pitching prospects. 2009 first rounder Shelby Miller is the most polished of these picks, and has a excellent curveball, changeup, and fastball. He was excellent last season, pitching well in the offensive heavy Texas League. He was briefly suspended for an alcohol related incident, but that kind of stuff is easy to happen to someone in their early 20s. He's one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and is projected as a future ace. Miller could make the big club as early as next year. Carlos Martinez has an even better curveball, and a good fastball as well. His command needs work though, and is probably 2-3 seasons away from the big leagues. He struck out 176 hitters in 143 innings so far, but needs to cut down on walks. Right hander Tyrell Jenkins was a compensation pick in 2010, and is yet another potential ace. However, he pitched in rookie ball last year and will likely start 2012 in Low A. The Cardinals are also high on Trevor Rosenthal, who pitched in Low A. He may not have ace potential like the other 3 pitchers, but could be a solid starter someday.

Technically still a rookie, Lance Lynn could start but was a key reliever down the stretch last year. Brandon Dickson was up for a couple games last year, but his future may be as a reliever. Onetime prospect Adam Ottavino is coming off Tommy John surgery. It looks like the Cards have 3 pitchers with ace potential, and a couple who could be solid starters someday. With Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright already good to great major league pitchers, the Cards should be set for years to come.

Relief Pitchers
Eduardo Sanchez pitched pretty good in the big leagues before he was hurt last year. He has filthy stuff, and should be a key reliever next season. Adam Reifer was the closer for Double A Springfield last year, and was promoted to Triple A late last year. He could be the first reliever called up next season if someone gets hurt. Acquired in the Brendan Ryan trade, Maikel Cleto posseses a high 90s fastball, but is very wild. He will need to work on his command and cut down on walks if he is going to have any success at the big league level. Jordan Swagerty is the highest rated relief prospect after Sanchez, jumped three levels last year. He will likely start in Double A next year.


Matt Adams stats

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Furcal Gets a Two Year Deal


I will say trading for Rafeal Furcal was a key move in the Cardinals postseason run this past year. He was a big improvement defensively over Ryan Theriot, and did get some key hits in September. He was a All Star in 2010, although he was hurt much of the second half. Since 2008, Furcal has played in 36, 150, 97, and 81 games. That's alot of missed games in the past four years, so Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso will probably need to fill in at some point during the season.

Furcal was signed to a two year, 14 million dollar deal this weekend. There wasn't much left on the free agent market, and 34 year old Jimmy Rollins wanted a five year deal. Furcal is also 34, and is coming off a down year. His average was down to .231 and On base pct. was down to .298 for the season, and isn't as fast on the bases as years past and has lost a step defensively. Furcal's did bat .255 with a .316 OBP in 50 games with the Cardinals this year, but he is not the ideal candidate to bat leadoff anymore. In the postseason he was 15 for 77(.195) with a .235 OBP.

If Furcal can rebound and stay healthy, it will be a good deal. Its possible last season was an off year due to injury, but its also possible Furcal is on the decline. Its not a huge deal, so if he does flop it won't be to big of a hit to the Cardinals financially. Besides Greene and Descalso, the Cardinals also have good glove weak hitting Pete Kozma in Triple A. Top SS Ryan Jackson spent last season in Double A and is probably a year or two away from the big leagues. Furcal is a stop gap until a long term option is ready or steps up, and hopefully the Redbirds can get a good to decent year from him next season.

Rafeal Furcal's career stats

Its not certain who will be Furcal's double play partner next season. Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot are both arbitration elgible, and its unlikely both will be retained. Schumaker's ability to play all outfield positions makes him the more likely candidate to stay as a utility guy. The Shredder and defensive specialist Nick Punto is a free agent. Greene and Descalso will be in the mix for the second base job as well, as both will spot Furcal from time to time. Allen Craig played some second last year, but is likely to be in right field next year when he gets healthy. There isn't much on the free agent market for second baseman, but a trade could be possible.

Tyler Greene led the team in stolen bases last season with 11 despite being in Triple A most of the year. He's put up solid numbers in Triple A batting .323 last season. He's solid defensively, and is quick, stealing over 30 bases twice in the minors. However, he's been in Memphis for parts of four seasons and turned 28 this past August. He hasn't found much success in the big leagues, but did play well in September when given the chance. Its time to see what Greene can do in the big leagues next year, or its time to trade him.

Unless Furcal can improve his On base pct., he shouldn't bat leadoff next season. Its possible that Jon Jay could be given a chance to leadoff. Its also possible John Mozeliak is looking to acquire a leadoff hitter. I'm also not sure what kind of manager Mike Matheny will be like, is he going to want a set lineup or mix and match like Tony LaRussa? I'm thinking he will have more of a set lineup when he can. I'm also unsure if Matheny will want to take more chances on than TLR did, partly to manufacture runs since Pujols is gone. Matheny will have some candidates to do it with Greene, Adron Chambers, Rule V draft pick Erik Komatsu, and possibly Furcal. Jay and Craig could and are fast enough to steal more bases if needed.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Cardinals Should Look to Improve Rest of Team




The Cardinals have lost out on Albert Pujols and its a bigtime loss. However, the Redbirds still have plenty of good players on their roster and Pujols wasn't the only guy responsible for winning the World Series last year. They did it without Adam Wainwright who didn't throw a pitch last season and will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2012. After letting it settle in Pujols is gone, its time to use some of the money allocated to him to improve the team. It looks like John Mozeliak might just do that, he talked about signing Carlos Beltran to a one or two year deal. Lance Berkman will be taking over first base, and Allen Craig when he gets healthy can play multiple positions including second, third, first, and all outfield spots. First base prospect Matt Adams is probably a year away and had a monster year in Double A last year. Mozeliak has also discussed signing lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez to take Arthur Rhodes spot.

The Cardinals middle infield was a weak spot last year. They started with Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot, one of the worst double play combos imaginable. Nick Punto and Daniel Descalso was also part of the mix, and Tyler Greene and even Allen Craig got some time at second. Theriot's lack of range and fielding misplays really hurt the club in the first half of the season, and its time to get a natural second baseman instead of Schumaker, a converted outfielder. Rafeal Furcal was acquired in a midseason trade, and did stablize short, but he's a free agent with a injury history who wants a multi-year deal.

I doubt Furcal comes back now, and I think the Cards should part ways with either Theriot or the Schu-man. I would consider re-signing Punto as a utility infielder if the price is right. I would want Descalso and Greene to get the most playing time at second and short if a veteran cannot be acquired. The free agent market is bare now for middle infielders now that Jose Reyes has signed with Miami and Jimmy Rollins is close to re-signing with Philly. The Brewers signed Alex Gonzalez, and Yuni Betancourt is a free agent but I wouldn't sign him. Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, and Jack Wilson are free agents; but at this point in their careers they are role players and not suited to start.

First off, I think the Cardinals should ask the Marlins if Hanley Ramirez is available. If reports are true he's unhappy about moving to third base, then we should put together a package to try to get him. He's coming off a down year, so I would see if they would take either Jon Jay or Allen Craig and Lance Lynn or Kyle McClellan, or even Kyle Lohse. I wouldn't trade Shelby Miller for him though, he's projected to be a future ace. If that fails, I would see if the Diamondbacks Stephen Drew, the White Sox Alexei Ramirez, or the Nationals Ian Desmond is available.

If they fail to land a shortstop, then I would go for a second baseman. 2011 first round pick Kolten Wong is projected to be the Cards future 2B, but he's a few years away. We need a stopgap for 2-3 years. I've wanted to see the Cardinals get Orlando Hudson for several years. He's got one year left on his deal with the Padres, and I doubt he's part of their long term plans since he's about to turn 34. If the Cards can get O-Dog for a mid level prospect or two they should, he's a four time Gold Glover with a decent bat. The Braves moved Martin Prado from second to left field last year to make room for Dan Uggla, and its rumored they are looking to trade Prado. He was an All Star in 2010 and a career .293 hitter. He would be a good pickup as well.

In the last year or two, Mozeliak's has changed the organzation's drafting approach. He had his amateur scouts look for speed, athleticism, and middle infielders and high end starting pitchers. The farm system has improved in recent years producing Jaime Garcia, Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Dan Descalso, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan, Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs, Tyler Greene, Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, and Brendan Ryan. Thats a big improvement from being one of the worst systems in baseball during the mid-2000s. The Cardinals have two top pitching prospects in baseball with right handers Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez who should be making their debuts in the next couple years. Miller could possibly come up sometime next year. Oscar Tavares is a high average hitting center field prospect, and 3B Zack Cox, 1B Matt Adams, 2B Kolten Wong are thought of highly by scouts. Adams is probably the closest to the big leagues. Ryan Jackson is the top SS prospect, but opinions are mixed on him. Adron Chambers, Lance Lynn, and Eduardo Sanchez are still rookies and they will get a chance to play next year.

The Cardinals have rebounded from losing alltime greats before. Rogers Hornsby was considered the greatest right handed hitter ever when he played, and was traded after their first title. The Cardinals went on to make the World Series in 1928, 1930, finally winning another one in 1931 with alot of the same cast. They traded Hall of Famers Joe Medwick and Johnny Mize in consecutive years before winning three NL pennants in a row from 1942-44 and another in 46, winning three of those World Series. After Stan Musial retired in 1963, they won the World Series the next year. Lou Brock retired in 1979, and they won the World Series in 1982. We cut ties with two thirds of the MV3 trading both Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen a year after winning in 2006, and you all know what happened this year. The Cardinals will rebound from losing Albert Pujols, bank on it.

Pujols signs with Angels, Cardinals need to regroup



Albert Pujols decided to sign with the Los Angeles Angels after they offered more money than the Cardinals did. Once Miami was out of the picture, I figured Pujols would re-sign, but then the Angels came in with a ten year 250 million dollar deal. Its a big loss for the Redbirds, but its a contract the Angels will regret. Just look at the ARod deal the Yankees signed after 2007 when he was 32 like Pujols.

                                                  Pujols career stats


YearAgeTmLgGPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDPHBPIBBPosAwards
200020STL-minA,A+,AAA133544490741544171996454647.314.378.543.9202661357PEO,POT,MEM · MIDW,CARL,PCL
200121STLNL16167659011219447437130136993.329.403.6101.01336021965379/DAS,MVP-4,RoY-1,SS
200222STLNL15767559011818540234127247269.314.394.561.95533120913*753/D96MVP-2
200323STLNL15768559113721251143124517965.359.439.6671.106394131012*73/DAS,MVP-2,SS
200424STLNL15469259213319651246123558452.331.415.6571.07238921712*3/DAS,MVP-3,SS
200525STLNL161700591129195382411171629765.330.430.6091.03936019927*3AS,MVP-1
200626STLNL14363453511917733149137729250.331.431.6711.10235920428*3AS,MVP-2,GG
200727STLNL1586795659918538132103269958.327.429.568.99732127722*3AS,MVP-9
200828STLNL148641524100187440371167310454.357.462.6531.11434216534*3/D4AS,MVP-1,SS
200929STLNL1607005681241864514713516411564.327.443.6581.10137423944*3/DAS,MVP-1,SS
201030STLNL1597005871151833914211814410376.312.414.5961.01135023438*3AS,MVP-2,GG,SS
201131STLNL1476515791051732903799916158.299.366.541.90631329415*3/5MVP-5
11 Seasons170574336312129120734551544513298435975704.328.420.6171.037389323277251
162 Game Avg.16270660012319743142126839367.328.420.6171.03737022724

                                            









ARod
2008-2011 
Year    AgeTeamGamesPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSTBGDP HBPIBBAwards
200832NYYAL1385945101041543303510318365117.302.392.573.96529216149AS,MVP-8,SS
200933NYYAL12453544478127171301001428097.286.402.532.9332361387MVP-10
201034NYYAL1375955227414129230125435998.270.341.506.847264731AS,MVP-15
 
201135NYYAL99428373671032101662414780.276.362.461.8231721351AS
18 Seasons2402106349199182427754952962918933057311661916.302.386.567.953521522215788


As you can see Pujols numbers have been declining for the last couple years. They are still All Star type seasons, but not worth 25 million a year. I still think Pujols will put up a few more big years, but as he gets older he most certainly will decline and recovering from injuries will take longer. Looking into the first four seasons into ARods 10 year 275 million dollar extension with the Yankees, his numbers have went down as he ages.

The Angels signed free agent left hander CJ Wilson as well, and should have a good team next year. But signing big name free agents doesn't always work, look at the 2011 Red Sox. However, they should have a top notch rotation with Jered Weaver, Danny Haren, Wilson, and Ervin Santana. Their lineup is stronger with Pujols, probably still not as good as the Rangers though. Torii Hunter and Howie Kendrick are there most established hitters, and Vernon Wells is on the decline. Rookie first baseman Mark Trumbo will probably move to third base or DH. The Angels do have up and coming outfielders Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout on their team as well. I expect them to make the playoffs, but there is no guarantee they will win a World Series with Pujols in the fold.

As for the Cardinals, Lance Berkman will move to first and Allen Craig will start at right field with Adron Chambers subbing in until he recovers from knee surgery. The Cardinals have discussed signing Carlos Beltran to a one year deal as well. The Cardinals should also look to upgrade their middle infield. Rafeal Furcal is not likely to come back, and there is not much on the free agent market now that Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins have signed new deals. I think Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso will get a shot to play, but the Cards should look to make a trade to stabilize either second or short. Adam Wainwright is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and top prospect Shelby Miller could be ready sometime next year so the pitching should be better. Hopefully, GM John Mozeliak will use the Pujols money to upgrade other spots on the roster.

Pujols could of been a Cardinals icon like Stan Musial, but he chose money over being a lifetime Cardinal. His career route is more like Rogers Hornsby, who was traded after a salary dispute. Hornsby wanted more money after leading the Redbirds to the 1926 World Series championship, and ownership wouldn't budge and traded him to the Giants for fellow Hall of Fame second baseman Frankie Frisch. Hornsby was still really good for another 4-5 years, but he had his best years in St. Louis. It looks like Pujols will be getting a small statue after he retires instead of a big one like Musial. As for Pujols, the pressure is on him next year. If he slumps, Angel fans will be rough on him considering he hasn't done anything for that organization yet. 10 year deals are risky, especially for a player already in his 30s; and I think it will be an albratross for the Angels in 5 or 6 years.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Ten Players for the Hall of Fame

In about a month the Hall of Fame will announce who will be inducted this year by the baseball writers. Former Cubs third baseman Ron Santo has made it via the Veteran's Committee a couple days ago. Barry Larkin received 62% of the vote last year, and is the most likely player to make it this year. It takes 75% of the vote to make it. Jack Morris is the only other player to receive more than 50% of the vote last year, and Bernie Williams is the most accomplished newcomer on the ballot.

Here's 10 Players That Should Be in the Hall of Fame(that are elgible right now)

Barry Larkin, SS 1986-2004

Larkin played his entire career with the Cincinnati Reds making 12 All Star teams and winning the 1995 NL MVP. Larkin won 3 Gold Gloves, and likely would of won more if it wasn't for Ozzie Smith. Larkin also had a 30/30 season in 1996 and batted over .300 9 times. Was probably the best position player on the 1990 World Series champion Reds.

Tim "Rock" Raines, LF 1979-2002

Was a seven time All Star for the Montreal Expos and led the NL in stolen bases four seasons in a row. Raines won the batting title in 1986, and led the NL in runs scored twice. Was traded to the White Sox after 1990, but was never quite as good in the American League as he was in the National League. Raines also was part of two World Series championship teams with the Yankees in 1996 and 1998. Raines has 2605 career hits, 808 career steals, and a .385 career OBP.

Alan Trammell, SS 1977-96

Trammell was a six time All Star and 4 time Gold Glover, and nearly won the 1987 AL MVP when he hit .343 and drove in 105 runs. Often overshadowed by Cal Ripken and Robin Yount, Trammell had a underrated career. Trammell had a career .285 average, and had 2365 hits, 185 HRs, 1003 RBIs, and 236 steals during his career. Was the MVP of the 1984 World Series as well. Trammell teamed up with second baseman Lou Whitaker to form the longest running double play combination in history.

Lou Whitaker, 2B 1977-95

Whitaker was the other part of the longest running double play combination in history, also playing his entire career with the Tigers. Was the 1978 Rookie of the Year, and made 5 straight All Star teams in the 80s. Whitaker had good power for a second baseman hitting 244 career home runs and had a .426 career slugging pct. Whitaker also won 3 Gold Gloves, and was a key member of the 1984 championship Tigers team.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B 1991-2005

One of the best first baseman in history, Bagwell only recieved 42% of the vote last year. He did play in the steroid era, and voters may be suspicious of him leaving him out like Rafeal Palmeiro and Mark McGwire. But Bagwell was a better all around player than those two. Bagwell won the 1991 Rookie of the Year and 1994 NL MVP and played 15 seasons for the Astros. He hit 449 career HRs, 1529 RBIs, stole 202 bases, had 2314 hits, 1517 runs scored, and a .297 BA, ,408 OBP, and .540 Slugging pct. Bagwell was also regarded as a good defender at first base.

Tommy John, LHP 1963-89

If anything, John should get in as a pioneer. Before John, tearing a ligament in your pitching elbow would end your career. Dr. Frank Jobe did experimental athroscopic elbow surgery taking a tendon from John's right wrist and using it to replace John's ruptured ligament in his left elbow, what is now known as Tommy John surgery. John missed a season and a half but won more games after the surgery than before. During his career, John won 288 games and had a 3.34 ERA playing 26 seasons mostly with the White Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees.

Steve Garvey, 1B 1969-87

Gravey was a 10 time All Star for the Dodgers and Padres and won 4 Gold Gloves. Was the winner of the 1974 NL MVP and led his teams to the World Series five times, winning the 1981 World Series with the Dodgers. He also won the NLCS MVP twice in 1978 and 1984. Finished his career with a .294 career average, 2599 hits, and 1308 RBIs.

Luis Tiant, RHP 1964-82

Tiant was a underrated pitcher during his career winning 229 games. Tiant also had a 1.60 ERA in 1968 with the Indians and a 1.91 ERA in 1972 with the Red Sox. Tiant only made 3 All Star teams, but won over 20 games 4 times, and had 2416 career strikeouts.

Ken Boyer, 3B 1955-69

Was the 1964 NL MVP, and won the World Series with the Cardinals that year. Boyer also made 7 All Star teams and won 5 Gold Gloves. Had a .287 lifetime average, and hit 282 home runs and 1141 RBIs during his career. Boyer has similar numbers as recent inductee Ron Santo.

Dick Allen, 3B/1B 1963-77

Allen had a shorter career than most Hall of Famers do, but was one of the best hitters in the game during his prime. Won the 1964 Rookie of the Year with the Phillies and the 1972 AL MVP with the White Sox. Led the league in homers twice, RBIs once, runs once, OBP twice, and Slugging pct. 3 times. Hit over 30 home runs 6 times, and had 351 career homers and a .534 career Slugging pct. Had a volatile personality and did not get along with sportswriters, Allen was kind of like the Albert Belle of the 60s and early 70s.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Marlins Sign Jose Reyes



The Miami Marlins have just agreed to a 6 year, 102 million dollar deal with shortstop Jose Reyes. Reyes is one of the most exciting players in the game and one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. During his 9 seasons in the league, all with the Mets; Reyes has won a batting title, led the league in steals three times, and led the league in triples four times. Reyes is a four time All Star, and good with the glove as well. The only knock on Reyes is that he has been injury prone the last 3 seasons.

Hanley Ramirez will move to third base from shortstop to make room for Reyes. The Marlins should have a pretty good lineup next year, and they are still in pursuit of Albert Pujols. Even without him, they should be among the highest run scoring teams next year. Right fielder Mike Stanton hit 34 home runs last year in his second season despite playing his home games at pitcher friendly Dolphin Stadium. Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez are also two up and coming young hitters. Right now, the Marlins lineup looks like this:

SS Jose Reyes
2B Omar Infante
3B Hanley Ramirez
RF Mike Stanton
LF Logan Morrison
1B Gaby Sanchez
C John Buck
CF Chris Coghlan/Emilio Bonifacio

Center field looks kind of weak unless Chris Coghlan can regain his 2009 Rookie of the Year form. John Buck has decent power, but doesn't hit for a high average. The middle of the order looks pretty good. I'm not sure if Miami's new ballpark is going to favor pitchers or hitters, but this team should have a good offense in 2012.

The Marlins have also signed closer Heath Bell to a three year deal. Their bullpen also includes Ryan Webb, Edwin Mujica, and Michael Dunn, all good relievers. Josh Johnson is their ace, and the Fish need him to be healthy to contend next year. Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez also return, and the Marlins are trying to re-sign free agent Javy Vazquez.

The Marlins will have new uniforms, a new stadium, new manager, and some new players next season. The Phillies are still the best team in the NL East, and the Braves will be in the running as well. But, with an extra wild card spot available next year, the Marlins should be in contention. With manager Ozzie Guillen and Reyes on the team, they won't be boring next year. They might have the ugliest uniforms in the  league, though.                            
                      

News and Notes:Former Cub third baseman Ron Santo was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee today, almost a year after he died. Santo is deserving, but if he's in why shouldn't Ken Boyer be in as well?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santoro01.shtml#batting_standard::none

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/boyerke01.shtml#batting_standard::none

Friday, December 2, 2011

Will Pujols and Fielder be worth the money?

Image Detail

One things certain, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are going to get paid alot of money pretty soon. How much they get paid and who they sign with is uncertain right now, and will probably take awhile to play out. Both players are free agents for the first time and both have only played for one team. Pujols has played 11 seasons for the Cardinals, and Fielder has played 6 full seasons and part of another for the Brewers. Fielder is the younger of the two who will be 28 next season, Pujols is four years older and will be 32 next year.

Pujols is on to a Hall of Fame career and is one of the best hitters ever to play the game. Fielder has been on the league's best hitters since he's came up. Both players are expected to get lengthy 9 figure deals, with Pujols possibly making over 200 million. Agents Dan Lozano and Scott Boras are busy scheming up ways to get a team to cough up more money. Its alot of money to invest in just one player and could be an albatross for a team if their production slips from its current level. Below is a couple of links with both players career statistics.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml#batting_standard::none

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml#batting_standard::none

Historically, big bodied first baseman decline in their 30s which is bad news for Fielder. He'll have to stay in better shape than his dad Cecil Fielder to maintain his production. Fielder may be a better fit in the American League were he could DH later in the deal. Pujols isn't without risk either since he wants at least a 7 year deal, possibly even 9-10 years. He'll be already 32 next season, and some suspect he may be older than that. While I think he'll be good for the first few years of the deal, I'm worried about the last half of the deal when he's on decline. Its been rumored he turned down a 9 year extension worth around 200 million before spring training, so I'm not sure what salary figure Pujols and his agent have in mind.

Looking back at some other big name 1B who have signed big free agent deals or extensions, more often than not they don't live up to the deal. Jeff Bagwell signed a 5 year 77 million dollar extension after 2001 and his numbers dropped in his third year, was hurt most of his fourth, and didn't even play his last season of the deal. Todd Helton signed a 9 year, 141 million dollar extension which started in 2003 and ended this past season. He was an elite hitter the first three years of the deal, but his power has dropped since and became more injury prone in his mid 30s. He maintained his ability to hit for average and get on base, and still remained a good defender though.

Teams looking to make a big splash by signing a big name first baseman haven't had great results either. Richie Sexson was a bust in Seattle and was released in his final season. Mo Vaughn completely fell off after leaving Boston with his average, on base pct., and slugging pct declining significantly. Jason Giambi was under investigation for steroid use early in his 8 year 120 million dollar deal with the Yankees, in which he admitted to using steroids a couple years later. Giambi still hit for power and drew walks, but no longer hit for average batting only .260 in New York after batting .311 for Oakland. Jim Thome performed well in 5 of his 7 years the Phillies gave them, but was traded midway through it and became a DH after that. He was also blocking Ryan Howard from playing sooner, and the money could of been better spent elsewhere.

I do hope the Cardinals re-sign Pujols, but at the right price and right amount of years. I dont' think a 9 or 10 year deal is a good idea and have my doubts about 7. I would prefer a 5-6 year deal with an mutual option. I'm fine if the Cardinals have to pay more per year to do it, rather than be paying a 40 year old player 20 million plus a year. Devoting a big portion of a teams payroll to one player limits the moves you can make, and could keep a team from fixing other holes. Its workable if the player is still productive, but if he's not the team is in trouble.